Kaneohe, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

525
FXHW60 PHFO 281321
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
321 AM HST Wed May 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate trade winds will persist through Thursday, with
mostly dry and stable conditions across the islands. Light
showers will favor windward slopes and coasts overnight into the
morning hours, then shift to leeward areas each afternoon where
sea breezes develop. An upper-level disturbance near the western
end of the state may lead to a slight increase in clouds and
showers there, mainly through the day today, before lifting
northeast and away from the islands. Breezy trade winds are
expected to return Friday and continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Short-term model guidance remains in good agreement, showing
light to moderate trade winds persisting into Thursday as a weak
subtropical ridge holds north of the islands. A well-established
mid-level ridge continues to promote dry and stable conditions,
with the trade wind inversion anchored around 6,000 to 6,500 feet.
These factors have limited overnight shower activity, with only
isolated pockets of moisture producing light rainfall along
windward slopes.

An upper-level low lingering near Kauai combined with a narrow
band of low-level moisture may lead to an increase shower
coverage across windward areas, with some afternoon showers
forming over leeward sections today. Elsewhere, shower activity
should remain minimal/brief - confined mainly to windward
locations overnight and early mornings, and to interior and
leeward areas where sea breezes develop during the afternoon.
Strong westerly winds aloft associated with the upper low
supports a wind advisory continuing today for the summits of the
Big Island.

Trade winds should strengthen a notch Friday and Saturday as
surface high pressure rebuilds far northeast of the state. The
upper-level low will be pushed off to the east, and ridging aloft
will move overhead, maintaining stable and somewhat dry
conditions. This should allow the strong winds at the summits to
ease Thursday into the weekend.

Trade winds will become more easterly and may ease slightly Sunday
and Monday due to a surface trough developing several hundred
miles west of the islands. There is the potential for an increase
in shower activity over the western end of the island chain as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for most areas through the
24-hr period, with brief showers possible over windward locations
overnight, and across some interior locations through the
afternoons where sea breezes form. An upper-level disturbance near
the western end of the state may lead to a slight increase in
clouds and showers over Kauai later today.

There are currently no AIRMETs in effect and none are anticipated
today.

&&

.MARINE...
The ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands will weaken into
Friday in response to cold fronts passing by to the north. Trade
winds will remain in the gentle to moderate range through Friday,
then increase to fresh levels this weekend as the ridge
strengthens.

Surf heights will remain tiny for most shores today. Surf heights
will increase along north and west facing shores tonight through
Thursday as a brief north-northwest (330-340 deg) swell moves
through the region. A larger north-northwest (330-340 deg) swell
will arrive in the islands by early Saturday morning, producing
moderate surf heights along north and west facing shores, before
rapidly declining Saturday night through Sunday.

A small background pulse of south swell will produce a slight
bump to surf heights along south facing shores starting this
afternoon, peaking by Friday, then slowly fading through the
weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island Summits.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Gibbs
MARINE...Bohlin