Martinez, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

775
FXUS62 KCAE 041203
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
803 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through today with some lingering
showers possible closer to the coast. Slightly cooler
temperatures and dry to start off the week, then a return of
some rain showers expected after mid- week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Cold front move through the area today
- Isolated afternoon storms mainly eastern Midlands
- Storms with isolated damaging wind gust potential remain
  possible


Overnight convection has weakened but some lingering showers
remain across the area as the upper low slowly moves across
KY/TN. A cold front is pushing through the Upstate at this time
with drier air behind it with dewpoints in the 50s. This front
will cross the area this morning before stalling near the
Coastal Plain and will become a focus for another round of
afternoon convection. Hi-res guidance seems to be in good
agreement with new convection firing along the boundary just
east of the forecast area this afternoon, but as the eastward
progress of the upper low stalls, so will the frontal boundary,
so wherever that boundary is when destabilization occurs is
likely where convection forms.

HREF has PWATs below an inch by this afternoon which should
limit convection, and confine it to the eastern Midlands if at
all in our area and will hold on to slight chance pops. SPC has
the far eastern Midlands outlooked in a marginal risk of severe
weather today which seems reasonable given the proximity of the
boundary and expected atmospheric diurnal destabilization. The
HRRR Neural Network supports this as well highlighting the
Coastal Plain with low severe probabilities. Temperatures should
be a bit cooler today with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Tonight, under mostly clear skies, fair weather is expected with
cooler temperatures with lows in the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Drier air and relatively calm weather expected for Monday and
  Tuesday.

Behind Sunday`s cold front, we will settle into a quasi-omega
block pattern in the eastern US with a pair of cutoff lows over
the Ohio Valley and south-central Plains. As a result, we will
see a couple days of consistent dry advection (PWAT`s down
around 0.5") from the northwest with near average temps. Rain
chances as such will be near zero through this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A more unsettled pattern expected for mid-week with more
  uncertainty for late week and next weekend.

The aforementioned omega block will break down late Tuesday
into Wednesday, developing a more zonal pattern with rising
heights as the Ohio Valley cutoff ejects northeast. As a result,
we will sit downstream of the souther Plains decaying trough
and therefore have some weak forcing aloft with increasing low
level moisture. The best rain chances arrive Wednesday as the
trough breaks down initially and PWAT`s jump back above 1.25".
Otherwise, this unsettled pattern will linger through at least
Thursday before there is notable uncertainty in guidance.
Basically there are two possible camps, one digging a sharp
trough fa enough into the Great Lakes to drive a cold, dry front
in from the north. Northwest flow regime then looks to dominate
through the weekend. The other keeping this trough weaker and
further north, therefore keeping our area under the same
downstream unsettled pattern as we saw midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The cold front is now pushing in near CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL as winds
are light and variable but should start picking up through the
morning to around 8-10 kts from the west to west-northwest
behind the front with gusts toward 15-18 kts possible. Scattered
to broken stratus and low clouds are seen through much of the
region this morning with a good amount of low level moisture
lingering and thus have maintained MVFR ceiling restrictions
through around 14-15z this morning before this clears up. Some
scattered clouds a little lower (near 500-900ft) have been seen
but am not expecting this to become broken to cause further
restrictions. The rest of the day may see some scattered cumulus
and high clouds as the front continues eastward, but most sites
should remain dry today. The only site that appears to have a
slight chance of seeing a possible shower/storm this afternoon
is OGB but right now model guidance has trended this activity
east of the terminal and thus confidence is not high enough to
include mention in the TAF at this time. Tonight sees light and
variable winds with mostly clear skies as drier air filters in.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions are expected for
much of the extended period outside of any early morning patchy
ground fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$