Tampa, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

828
FXUS62 KTBW 201222
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
822 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Early 12Z sounding data shows a light NW flow through the first
couple kilometers of the atmosphere, allowing storms that continue
to develop to slowly meander south. The slow motion, however, means
that heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary concern for the
storms that do form today. Otherwise, the environment is not
particularly conducive for severe weather.

Most, however, are kicking off the day warm and humid. Showers and
thunderstorms, away from the coast, are not likely until this
afternoon and into the evening, in a very classic setup for a summer
day. This consistent with the current forecast. Really, the only
change for the morning was to adjust the POPs to better capture
thunderstorms ongoing now. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 820 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Thunderstorms continue to form along the coast in the Tampa Bay
area, moving into the vicinity of terminals. This will continue
through the day with a light flow in place. The biggest and
therefore most impactful storms are not expected until this
afternoon, however, with gusty winds and MVFR to even IFR conditions
possible at area terminals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Light flow in place across the peninsula this morning beneath a
weakness aloft between ridging centered over the N Gulf Coast and
W Atlantic. A shortwave trough to the north pushing across the E
Seaboard and inverted trough east of FL extending north from a mid
level low over the SW Bahamas will maintain generally light N/NE
flow aloft over the area today as the low slowly drifts west
toward the FL Straits. Drier air evident in WV satellite imagery
and meso-analysis (PW < 1.5 in) just east of the peninsula will
spread west across parts of the E FL peninsula this afternoon and
perhaps as far west as parts of interior S/SW FL this evening,
which may act to limit overall convective development in the late
afternoon and early evening, however, the rest of the W FL
peninsula will retain ample moisture (PW 1.9-2.1 in) to support
scattered showers and storms, initially developing along the coast
this morning followed by more robust development later this
afternoon into the evening toward the interior as the sea breeze
and convective outflow boundaries collide and interact. Convection
will eventually propagate S/SW through the evening before pushing
offshore and diminishing over land areas overnight. Given the
light flow and resultant relatively slow shower/storm movement,
typical low lying and poor drainage areas may experience some
minor flooding, particularly in light of recent rainfall.

Ridging aloft centered over the N Gulf begins to build and expand
N/E on Saturday while the mid level low currently near the SW
Bahamas enters the SE Gulf via the FL Straits, with flow between
the two favoring flow aloft over the peninsula gradually shifting
to easterly and increasing slightly. A decrease in PW values
(down to 1.5-1.9 in) as the drier W Atlantic air advects further
across W FL will likely lead to slightly less overall coverage of
showers and storms compared to today, however, sufficient
moisture will remain in place to support another round of
scattered convection (50-60% PoPs) for much of the W FL peninsula
given the presence of sea breeze and boundary collisions.

Ridging aloft strengthens further into Sunday and becomes
centered over the Mid-Atlantic, favoring deep layer easterly flow
across the state as W Atlantic surface ridging extends west across
the SE U.S. north of the peninsula. PW values decrease further
under this regime across the area for much of next week with rain
chances becoming more dependent on sea breeze and boundary
collisions, while largely focusing over the W FL peninsula and
toward the Gulf Coast as the increased easterly flow restricts the
W FL sea breeze from advancing too far inland. As such, areas away
from the coast will warm a few degrees more during the afternoons,
with high temps in the lower 90s this afternoon rising into the
lower to mid 90s over the weekend, followed by mid to upper 90s
across the interior much of next week. Immediate coastal locations
will remain a few degrees cooler owing to the sea breeze, but
still will likely warm to around 90 or the lower 90s next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Coastal showers and storms likely this morning, before convective
focus shifts ashore during the afternoon, with some convective
outflow and potential associated convection pushing back toward
the coastal waters late, particularly across the southern waters.
High pressure builds north of the waters over the weekend into
next week favoring a return of easterlies over the waters and
increase in winds and associated seas, likely from 1-2 feet
through the weekend to around 2 to 3 feet next week. Showers and
storms likely favored to push offshore in the evenings and early
overnight with locally higher winds and seas before diminishing.
No headlines expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Light to variable flow expected today with morning showers and
storms near the coast, followed by development of afternoon and
evening showers further inland. High pressure builds north of the
area over the weekend with easterly flow returning and persisting
through much of next week, with shower and storm chances focusing
toward W FL and coastal areas during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Drier air works across the peninsula next week with
minimum RH values dropping to near or just below 50 percent for
most areas, however, overall moisture content keep RHs above
critical thresholds through the period with minimal fire concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  78 /  70  40  50  30
FMY  92  75  93  75 /  60  30  60  30
GIF  93  75  94  76 /  70  40  50  10
SRQ  90  75  92  75 /  70  40  50  40
BKV  93  72  95  72 /  60  40  50  20
SPG  89  78  91  78 /  60  40  40  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hurt