Tallahassee, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

550
FXUS62 KTAE 180900
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
400 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Overnight water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough around the
Ark-La-Tex region forcing an expansive area of showers/thunderstorms
across the MS Valley. This convective activity attendant to a
surface frontal low is expected to move through the Tri-State area
today-tonight. Timing has an initial arrival at our Central Timezone
Counties this morning, then locations eastward midday into the
afternoon. Storm redevelopment then occurs back west early evening
and pushes east Sunday night. A low-end threat for isolated strong
to damaging gusts, heavy rainfall, and perhaps a brief tornado or
two will exist during this time frame. As is the case most of the
time during the cool season, the environment will be characterized
as high shear/low CAPE. A belt of strong westerlies aloft is
forecast to foster deep-layer shear around 70 kts atop a 40-50-kt
850 jet. Such values easily support organized multi-cellular or
supercell structures, and broken bands. The main limiting factor is
instability.

A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) was introduced by the Storm
Prediction Center for the southern two-thirds of the CWA, or roughly
south of a Abbeville-Albany-Tifton line - valid 12Z Saturday to 12Z
Sunday. As for excessive rainfall, the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)
is maintained across the FL Big Bend and parts of South-Central GA
where hi-resolution models depict multiple instances of training
convection amidst an anomalously moist airmass while the front
decelerates. The HREF shows a Precipitable Water swath of 1.6-1.8"
overspreading the Forgotten Coast into the Suwannee Valley, which
exceeds the daily maximum, per KTLH sounding climatology. Therefore,
the potential exists for instances of localized nuisance flooding.

Rain chances gradually taper off west to east tonight as the Arctic
front pushes eastward. High temperatures are forecast to range from
the mid 60s to low 70s under mostly cloudy skies (pre-frontal
conditions). A sharp low-temperature gradient then follows (upper
40s NW to low 60s SE) during FroPa.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 311 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

The last of any rain will be exiting the region with cold/dry NW
breezes filtering in behind the Arctic front. Temperatures should
struggle to increase on Sunday given the strong cold-air advection
immediately following FroPa. Forecast highs are mostly in the 50s
outside of the Eastern FL Big Bend into extreme South-Central GA
(low 60s). Sunday night starts a prolonged period of very cold
weather. Widespread sub-freezing temperatures are expected with hard-
freeze conditions of at least 25 degrees across the NW half of the
Tri-State area. Adding a brisk north wind prompts wind chills in the
teens nearly areawide, thus meeting Cold Weather Advisory (FL/GA/AL)
and Extreme Cold Watch/Warning criteria (FL Panhandle, < 15
degrees). For Monday, this frigid airmass prompts high temperatures
in the upper 30s to low 40s with sub-40 degree wind chills!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

The arctic airmass will already be in place and will continue
through much of the week with perhaps stepping out of the deep
freeze Friday. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be the coldest of
the period with readings not even reaching 40 degrees throughout
much of the FL panhandle, SE AL, and SW GA with low/mid 40s
through the FL Big Bend. Hard freeze and cold weather products
will likely be needed each night Monday night through Thursday
night. Some locales may fall into the upper teens for lows
(mainly in our northern counties) with wind chills in the low
teens to upper single digits. Brrr....

Moving on to the wintry weather possibility...A surface inverted
trough sets up in the western Gulf of Mexico in response to a
shortwave trough moving through the southern Rockies. As it
emerges in the southern Plains, surface low pressure tracks
through the Gulf of Mexico. The three track scenarios that have
been discussed previously remains in tact. A track further south
in the southern Gulf will keep us bitterly cold with
precipitation south of the region. This appears to becoming less
likely. A track through the central Gulf would be the most
impactful with wintry precip through much of the area (snow/ice
with some rain south). A track closer to the northern Gulf coast
may bring mostly a cold rain with wintry weather further north
into central AL/GA. The latter two scenarios are the most likely
scenarios based on the latest deterministic/ensemble model runs.

Timing continues to hone in on the Tuesday into Wednesday morning
time frame, though there may be a brief chance (10-20%) for light
snow/rain mix Monday night into early Tuesday morning in the FL
Big Bend.

Felt confident enough to raise precip chances Tuesday into
Wednesday as the models have been decently consistent in
depicting the system with some sort of precipitation through the
southeast US. It`s less confident on p-types and locations of
changeovers at this time frame. Of note is the trend in a few of
the deterministic models of taking the chances of freezing
rain/snow mix further north into GA/AL as opposed to all snow,
which these models may be trying to resolve a deeper warm nose in
the 850-700mb layer with a slightly more north track of the
surface low. It remains to be seen if this trend continues.

Nevertheless, the chances of a high impact winter weather event is
increasing for our area next week for the possible wintry precip and
bitterly cold temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Overnight conds hold at VFR before cigs lower from west to east
in the morning as scattered showers arrive at DHN/ECP/ABY around
sunrise. A mix of MVFR/IFR conds are likely to accompany this
convection. Southerly LLWS up to 40 kts is another concern, but
should abate by mid-late morning outside of ABY/VLD. On and off
rain with embedded thunder is expected today with PROB30s for
-TSRA except ABY. Look for IFR-LIFR cigs this evening east of the
 ACF basin. South to SW winds mostly up to 10 kts prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
Southerly winds will remain in place today ahead of an approaching
cold front. Winds gradually clock around to west tonight then
northwest Sunday behind the passage. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase in response through tonight then decrease
from west to east Sunday. Cautionary to advisory level northwest
breezes follow the passage then possibly linger into midweek as
the weather pattern remains unsettled. The next low pressure
system affects the area with rain returning Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms move across the Tri-
State area today and tonight into multiple waves. A widespread
wetting rain is likely in addition to the potential for isolated
strong to severe convection. The Arctic front responsible for this
activity exits the region on Sunday with very cold, dry air
filtering in from the NW. South to SW winds ahead of the front on
Saturday, become breezy post-frontal northwesterlies on Sunday.
Relative humidity tumbles into the 20s mainly north of the FL state
line with sub-freezing temperatures forecast Monday morning.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 311 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Today and tonight will be wet with the latest forecast amounts
ranging from about a half inch to nearly 1.5 inches. The best
potential for locally heavy rainfall capable of localized nuisance
flooding exists in the FL Big Bend into parts of South-Central GA
where a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) is in place. However, this rain
is likely to prove more beneficial than harmful. We then dry out
Sunday-Monday, before additional precipitation appears likely by
early Tuesday. Given the expected frigid temperatures during that
time, the potential exists for wintry weather, though confidence on
the type (liquid, frozen, or both), amounts, and placement remain
low.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   67  57  58  28 /  90  90  10   0
Panama City   70  55  55  27 /  80  80   0   0
Dothan        68  50  51  23 /  80  40   0   0
Albany        65  54  54  24 /  80  60   0   0
Valdosta      66  58  60  27 /  80  80  10   0
Cross City    71  62  64  30 /  70 100  50   0
Apalachicola  69  58  59  29 /  90  90  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3