Sunrise, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

604
FXUS62 KMFL 100508
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
108 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

This weekend a surface and upper level low will pinwheel around the
deep south US, and a frontal boundary associated with this system
will only make minimal progress advancing towards South FL from the
west. 00Z MFL sounding shows the ongoing challenge for the next
couple days with plenty of dry air aloft to inhibit much convection
from occurring across South FL. Much like last evening, any
convection that does get going won`t be until mid to late afternoon
into the early evening hours today, and mainly around the lake
region, although some of the CAMS are showing the possibility of
some showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf coast late tonight and
overnight, so will hold chance PoPs over there tonight to account
for that possibility. SE FL is likely to stay mostly dry again
today. Any storm that does develop late in the day around the lake
region will have the best chance of being marginally severe, with
some strong wind gusts and the possibility of hail. Afternoon high
temps will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Very mild
overnight temps across the metro, with lows only falling into the
upper 70s, while upper 60s to lower 70s will be felt across SW FL.

The frontal boundary will inch eastward on Sunday but remain over
the eastern Gulf by late in the day. Much of the convection is
expected to remain to our west into the Gulf, however some diurnally
driven thunderstorms will develop over the peninsula during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Once again, the highest PoPs will
be over the lake region, but SW FL may see some more activity on
Sunday. The SE FL metro will again struggle to see any convection
with just a slight chance a few storms may try to drift towards the
metro in the early evening hours. High temps on Sunday will be in
the mid to upper 80s across the east coast metro, and upper 80s to
lower 90s over interior locations and SW FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025

Long range models remain in fair agreement regarding the persistence
of a cut-off low lingering over S Louisiana and the NW Gulf waters
on Sunday, along with an associated frontal boundary stretching
across the northern half of Florida. Meanwhile, mid level ridging
will remain further to the east of the state through early next
week. The overall synoptic scenario will continue to support deeper
moisture advection from the south as sfc winds remain SSE on Sunday
and Monday.

Ensembles and NBM solutions keep the cut-off low in place on
Sunday, with latest model PWATs around 1.5 inches, and continuing
southerly moisture advection across SoFlo. The main moisture plume
axis will stretch from SW Florida through the Lake region, where max
POPs have increased into the 60-70 percent range for the afternoon
hours. Guidance insists in keeping the Atlantic metro areas
considerably below the rest of the area in terms of POPs and
thunderstorm activity. But it won`t be too surprising if this
scenario changes in upcoming model runs. Regardless, it seems
increasingly possible to have some localized heavy rain events,
which could result in flooding impacts, especially with the slower-
moving cells. QPF estimates remain around the 90th percentile in
latest NBM run, with possible accumulations in the 1.25-1.50 in
range Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours. Sea breezes may
also help in providing additional lifting and become focal points
for thunderstorm activity.

The wet pattern further intensifies on Monday as the aforementioned
cut-off low finally begins to quickly migrate NE while dragging the
associated frontal boundary across the area. As the plume of
moisture further deepens, model sounding suggests PWATs likely
exceeding 2 in by Monday afternoon. Thus, POPs jump into the 80
percent range, or even 90 POPs around the Lake region. Meanwhile,
GFS and ECMWF continue to depict a mid-upper lvl jet drifting into
the area from the west, which may provide enhanced lifting and
cooler 500 mb temps (-10C to -12C). Therefore, expect potential for
repeated bouts of heavy rain (especially with training of cells),
and the possibility of some strong to severe storms, especially
along sea breeze and/or outflow boundaries.

A similar weather pattern continues on Tuesday, but with a
decreasing trend starting over the western half of SoFlo as the cut-
off low finally departs towards the Ohio valley, dragging the sfc
front along. Enough moisture will remain over the area for another
round of numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon,
favoring the Atlantic metro areas. By Wednesday, the high pressure
over the west Atlantic will begin filtering back into the region in
the wake of the front, with sfc winds backing to a more SE flow and
drier air lowering POPs into the 30-40 percent range, and down to 10-
20 percent by Thursday.

In terms of temperatures, expect warm conditions on Sunday with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Models show latest heat index
values possibly reaching triple digits over some interior areas. For
Monday and Tuesday, the increasing cloud cover and widespread
showers should keep afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 80s. Then
back into the upper 80s and low 90s Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

Light SE winds this morning becoming S/SE 10-15 kts with gusts
around 20 kts from late morning through early this evening. Some
late day thunderstorms are possible around the lake region, and
late tonight near the Gulf coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 106 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

A moderate to fresh southeasterly flow is expected this weekend
across the area waters. Scattered thunderstorms are possible
throughout the weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds
and seas. Outside of convection, seas in the Gulf today 2 ft or
less, and 2-3 ft in the Atlantic. Waves build slightly on Sunday to
2-3 ft in the Gulf and 2-4 ft in the Atlantic.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 106 AM EDT Sat May 10 2025

A moderate S/SE flow today will result in an elevated risk of rip
currents for the Atlantic beaches today. The risk may increase on
Sunday for the Atlantic beaches as the flow takes on more of an
easterly component.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  78  86  79 /  10  10  20  30
West Kendall     89  75  88  76 /  10  10  20  30
Opa-Locka        89  77  88  77 /  10  10  20  20
Homestead        87  77  87  77 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  86  77  85  78 /  10  10  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  87  77  85  77 /  10  10  20  20
Pembroke Pines   91  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  20
West Palm Beach  87  76  86  76 /  20  10  20  20
Boca Raton       88  77  87  77 /  20  10  20  30
Naples           89  74  89  74 /  30  30  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF