Spring Hill, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

280
FXUS62 KTBW 070029
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
829 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Isolated spotty showers continue to develop across the Tampa Bay
area, aided by a couple lingering boundaries and local axis of
increased instability. Some CAMs are hinting that this may continue
through the evening and into the night. However, increased stability
over land should keep this confined to only a very small portion of
the coastline, if this does continue to occur.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track this evening as the WSW
flow continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low has moved further west into the Gulf today while TD
Chantal and remnants move through the Carolinas with the local
area between these features. The latest surface analysis continues
to indicate a weak boundary remains stretched across the I-4
corridor with generally light-moderate SW flow over the Peninsula.
Most of the area is fairly rain free early this afternoon since
earlier outflows pushed well inland much sooner than typical Gulf
seabreeze. But, the area remains in a very moist airmass and
unstable environment during additional diurnal heating, so expect
additional WNW moving showers and thunderstorms through the late
afternoon and evening hours. Then with typical regime 5 expected
E Gulf convection to redevelop overnight as the warm and humid
conditions continue.

SW flow through Monday before transitioning to more typical summertime
pattern as the Bermuda high pressure ridge axis builds back over
and meanders over the FL Peninsula mid-late week and into next
weekend with afternoon and evening thunderstorm patterns and warm
near normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 828 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Some coastal showers will continue overnight in the vicinity of
Tampa Bay Area terminals as a WSW flow continues while SWFL remains
quiet until early tomorrow morning and inland areas after sunrise.
With this flow continuing, the window for thunderstorms will be
earlier and shorter, before thunderstorms transition inland. This
will continue to linger into Tuesday before conditions begin to
change Wednesday and late week back to a more typical afternoon and
evening window for thunderstorms.


&&

.MARINE...
Southwesterly flow will continue through Monday then weak high
pressure will build over the Central Gulf with generally light
winds and slight seas through the week. Expect daily summertime
showers and storms to produce brief gusty winds that will increase
choppy seas in and near convection.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and humid summertime conditions will continue through the
week with seabreezes along with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  91  79  91 /  20  30  10  30
FMY  78  93  77  93 /  10  50  10  60
GIF  76  92  76  93 /  20  50  10  50
SRQ  78  90  77  91 /  20  30  10  30
BKV  73  91  73  91 /  20  40   0  40
SPG  79  88  78  88 /  20  30  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Davis