Spring Hill, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

947
FXUS62 KTBW 180805
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
305 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
As advertised, a high amplitude pattern will take shape across the
CONUS today with a deep L/W developing from Hudson Bay to the
southern Plains, and a sharp upstream ridge extending off the
west coast of the U.S. through eastern Alaska. This will create a
conveyor belt for arctic air to plunge south into the central and
southern U.S.

An area of low pressure will develop over the Lower Mississippi
Valley along the leading edge of the cold air in the region of
strongest baroclinicity...and will track across the southeast U.S.
tonight, and off the mid Atlantic coast on Sunday where it will
then begin to rapidly deepen. The chance for rain will increase
over the northern nature coast late today as the associated cold
front approaches the area. The front will then push across west
central and southwest Florida tonight and Sunday, with an area of
showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across the region ahead
of the front.

Canadian high pressure will build over the forecast area in the
wake of the front Sunday and Sunday night with much colder drier
air advecting across the region on gusty north to northwest winds.
Considerable high cloudiness will likely persist over the region
which should reduce the risk for strong radiational cooling.
However, the airmass will be cold enough for temperatures around
freezing to occur Sunday night/early Monday morning over the
northern nature coast. Monday is shaping up to be a rather cold
day across the forecast area with considerable high cloudiness and
high temperatures in the upper 40s north...mid 50s central...and
around 60 south.

On Tuesday, the next upstream disturbance will dig into the base
of the L/W trough and move rapidly across the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley. This will induce an area of low
pressure to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico, which will
move quickly across the Gulf and Florida peninsula Tuesday and
Tuesday night, exiting early Wednesday. In advance of the system
on Tuesday, a warm front will lie across the southern Florida
peninsula with strong over-running developing to the north of the
front creating an area of rain across the central peninsula. Given
the strong U/L dynamics, there is a chance for elevated
convection/a few thunderstorms as well. Simultaneously, an area
of rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop over the central
Gulf of Mexico associated with the main area of low pressure. This
area of rain and potential thunderstorms will be push across west
central and southwest Florida Tuesday night. The rain may be
locally heavy. Guidance suggests that mean rainfall for the event
will be around 1.25 inches, with a max of 1.5 inches in the Tampa
Bay area. There`s also approximately a 25 percent probability for
over 2 inches of rain.

As the system exits the region late Tuesday night/early Wednesday
morning, there is also the potential that as a reinforcing shot
of cold Canadian air begins to advect back over the area in the
systems wake, that the very tail end of the precip shield could
become a mix of light rain/freezing rain, or even very light snow
across the extreme northern forecast area...specifically Levy
county. Will have to closely monitor evolution of this over the
next several days. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop
late Tuesday night and Wednesday and may cause wind chill issues
for portions of the area, with the best chance north and central.

A series of U/L disturbances will ride through the fast moving
U/L flow across the Gulf late in the week. Given our forecast
areas proximity to the main baroclinic zone which will be near or
over south Florida, this will keep a chance of showers in the
forecast each day under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 201 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
Areas of IFR CIGs around 005 will occur vcnty all terminals
through the mid morning hours. Brief MVFR VSBYs due to fog will
also be possible around just before and after sunrise with the
best chance at PGD/LAL/FMY. VFR CIGs are expected the remainder of
the day at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
Southerly winds will increase across the waters ahead of a cold
front on Saturday approaching SCEC levels. The front will push
across the waters High pressure will build over the waters late
Saturday night and Sunday with gusty north to northwest winds
developing, with advisory level winds possible. Although winds
will subside a bit Sunday night, they will likely remain at
cautionary levels. Winds will likely remain elevated through
Tuesday, then increasing to advisory levels as an area of low
pressure pushes across the waters Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels for the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  65  70  43 /  10  60 100  10
FMY  78  65  78  52 /   0  10  60  20
GIF  78  65  74  44 /   0  40  90  10
SRQ  74  65  73  45 /   0  50  90  10
BKV  76  61  70  36 /  10  70 100  10
SPG  71  65  69  46 /  10  60 100  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby