Pine Hills, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

352
FXUS62 KMLB 161929
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
329 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

- Elevated fire weather danger persists today. Steady breezes will
  surge drier air down the peninsula.

- No rain is forecast through the weekend. Next week, there is at
  least a low chance of a few showers.

- A slow warming trend gets underway late this week and through
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Tonight...Dry air will continue to filter in from the north as a
cold front moves south of the Florida peninsula and an area of
surface high pressure settles across the southeastern U.S. Mostly
clear skies are anticipated to persist into the overnight hours,
with north-northeast winds falling to 5 to 10 mph. Overnight lows
will be a bit cooler than normal as a result of the passing front,
with temperatures falling into the 50s across much of east central
Florida.

Thursday-Monday...Mid-level ridging will build across the Gulf and
extend towards the Florida peninsula into this weekend, shifting
towards the Atlantic into Monday. This will further support the area
of high pressure at the surface, shifting from the southeastern
U.S. Thursday and Friday towards the western Atlantic just off the
coast of the Carolinas into the weekend. The high then slides
southward, just east of Florida and Georgia, with the ridge axis
forecast to remain north of central Florida. Locally, weather
conditions are anticipated to remain dry through the remainder of
this week and into the start of next week. Rain chances remain
virtually near zero through the entire period, with dry air
remaining in place. Winds veer from the northeast on Thursday to
out of the east, remaining onshore through at least Saturday
before becoming more southeasterly on Sunday and Monday. While
wind speeds are generally expected to remain between 5 to 10 mph,
the development of the east coast sea breeze and its push inland
each afternoon will act to enhance wind speeds, especially along
the coast. Mostly clear skies forecast through Saturday, with some
building cloud coverage possible Sunday into Monday.

A warming trend is forecast through the remainder of this week and
into early next week as a result of the persistent high located
within the vicinity of east central Florida. Highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s on Thursday warm to the low 80s to low 90s Sunday and
Monday. Lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast to
persist over the next several days as a result of low minimum RH
values, continued drying of fuels, and the potential for near-
critical winds. Fire safety precautions should continue to be taken,
including avoiding producing sparks or flames, properly discarding
cigarettes, and not parking vehicles on dried-out grass.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Heading into the middle of next week, the models
veer in two very different directions relative to the weather
pattern. GFS ensemble guidance hints at the mid-level ridge eroding,
allowing for the next potential frontal passage and rain chances
across east central Florida. Euro ensembles, on the other hand, keep
the ridge in place with any sort of activity remaining well north of
the area. Stuck with the NBM for the forecast, which maintains a 20
percent chance of showers across the area, primarily on Wednesday.
Will continue to monitor the trends and adjust the forecast as
needed. Temperatures remain warm in the low 80s along the coast and
in the mid to upper 80s across the interior. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

High pressure builds across the southeastern U.S. over the next
couple of days and slides eastward out across the Atlantic
waters just off the coast of the Carolinas this weekend. It will
then drift southward towards the Georgia and Florida waters early
next week. Locally, this will mean generally favorable boating
conditions across the Atlantic waters. Northeast winds veer
onshore Thursday through Saturday, becoming southeasterly Sunday
through Monday. Wind speeds generally range from 10 to 15 knots
through the period, though some brief periods with wind speeds
greater than 15 knots cannot be ruled out. Lingering 5 foot seas
across the offshore waters diminish tonight, remaining between 2
to 4 feet through the remainder of this week and into early next
week. Rain is not forecast over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. N-NNE winds 10-15
kts, with gusts 20-25 kts along the coast, early this afternoon
shift to the NE through the late afternoon and evening, becoming
light and variable overnight, then becoming NE-ENE 5-10 kts
Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are
anticipated to persist across east central Florida over the next
several days. An area of high pressure will build across the
southeastern U.S. and drift eastward out towards the western
Atlantic, where it will then slowly drift southwards towards the
local Florida waters. This will keep conditions dry locally, with
no rain forecast across east central Florida through the weekend
and into early next week. The lack of rainfall will allow for
continued drying of fuels. There is the potential for the return
of rain chances during the middle of next week, but there is too
much discrepancy between models at this time to be confident.

Critically low RH values are anticipated to continue into
Thursday, with values falling into the 25 to 35 percent range
across much of the interior and 35 to 50 percent along the coast.
RH values improve slightly to 35 to 50 percent on Friday across
all of east central Florida, and remain generally in that range
through the weekend and into Monday. Onshore winds Thursday
through Saturday veer southeasterly Sunday through Tuesday. Wind
speeds are anticipated to remain below 15 mph, though local
enhancements from the east coast sea breeze each afternoon could
cause winds to reach 15 mph and greater. Gusts to 20 mph cannot be
ruled out, especially along the coast. Days with greater wind
speeds will likely have higher dispersions, which could lead to
control concerns for any active or new fires. Proper fire safety
precautions are strongly encouraged over the next several days due
to the sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  79  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  57  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  61  79  66  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  60  80  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  55  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  56  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  59  84  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  59  79  64  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Haley