Palm Coast, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

877
FXUS62 KJAX 180824
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
324 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

...WETTING RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN DANGEROUSLY
COLD AIRMASS PLUNGES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...

...POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN HAS
INCREASED LATE TUE INTO WED...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 258 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Low pressure off the Atlantic coast and another low approaching
the area from the west has the area cradled this morning by a warm
front to the south. This warm front brings scattered showers with
coverage increasing into the afternoon as the warm front lifts and
moves north across the area. Moisture will build throughout the
day as the low pressure out to the west pushes in. Daytime highs
will be in the mid to upper 60s over southeast Georgia with
temperatures reaching into the low to mid 70s over northeast
Florida. Rain coverage will continue to increase into the evening
hours and over night as the low pressure to the west moves in,
dragging a cold front and a bit more instability in along with it.
A slight chance of some stronger storms exist overnight as the
deepest moisture and lift move in over the area. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s over southeast Georgia and low to mid 60s
over northeast Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 258 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Sunday & Sunday Night...Rainfall will be ongoing across the area
early Sunday morning near the leading edge of the surface cold
front as a dry slot begins to move across SE GA through midday.
There will be a very low chance (< 10%) of a thunderstorm early
Sunday morning across our north-central FL zones roughly along and
south of a St. Augustine to Ocala line where strong bulk shear
phases with meager 200-300 J/kg of most-unstable CAPE. As
rainfall and cloud cover shift south of NE FL through later
afternoon, shallow cold air advection begins under gusty WNW post-
frontal winds. Daytime highs will be realized Sunday morning,
with cooling temperatures through the day with temperatures
generally falling into the 50s across SE GA Sunday afternoon and
low/mid 60s across NE FL. Wind gusts will near 20-30 mph at times.
Sunday night, the 850 mb trough axis moves east of the region,
opening a deeper flow of cold NW air across the region as the
strong Arctic origin high pressure dome slides across the central
CONUS. Sunday night, low temperatures will plummet into the 20s
across much of SE GA where there is a low (20-30%) chance of a
hard freeze (min temps 25 degF or less) but there is high
confidence of a widespread freeze by daybreak Monday morning
across all of SE GA and most of inland NE FL, less locations near
and east of the St. Johns River basin. Anticipate freeze watches
later tonight for Sunday night. In addition to the cold
temperatures, elevated winds will create wind chills in the upper
teens across SE GA to the low to mid 20s across NE FL, and a cold
weather advisory will also likely be needed. Although there will
be drying Sunday afternoon and evening after the weekend rainfall,
there will be a chance of patches of ice on inland area roadways
that may have poor drainage early Monday morning (black ice).

Monday & Monday Night...Dry conditions and bitterly cold Monday
with temperatures struggling to break 40 degrees by early
afternoon across SE GA and the low 40s across NE FL as the surface
high builds north of the region. Winds speeds progressively
weaken through the day, but wind chills will be in the 30s for
many locations through the day. Cloudiness begins to increase late
Monday into Monday night as as onshore flow develops and a
coastal trough forms as the surface high builds NNE of the region.
A cold NNE flow will bring another freeze to SE GA and portions
of inland NE FL, with the slight NNE wind direction increasing
cloud cover across portions of coastal NE FL and the St. Johns
River basin where low temperatures will generally range in the mid
to upper 30s despite increasing cloud cover. Monday night into
early Tuesday morning, isentropic lift increases over the area
between the low level coastal trough axis offshore and a deepening
long wave trough across the central CONUS. A cold rain is
expected across much of NE FL late Monday night into Tuesday, with
the latest NBM guidance indicating probabilities of snow < 10%
through daybreak Tuesday morning for locations north of the I-10
corridor. Expect the dominant weather type to be a cold rain
across NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Tuesday & Wednesday...Cold temperatures dominate and the
potential winter precipitation impacts increase through the day
Tuesday, peak Tuesday night and tapper off through Wednesday
morning as the aforementioned long wave trough forms a surface low
across the Gulf of Mexico. How far north the center of the low
tracks and how much moisture advects northward across the local
area will influence the resultant precipitation types and amounts
as the surface low crosses the southern FL peninsula late Tuesday
night and departs quickly to the NE early Wednesday as another
cold dome of high pressure builds in from the west.

Cold rain will impact much of north-central FL Tue afternoon
through Wed morning, while the potential for a wintry mix of snow
and potential freezing rain begins across SE GA Tuesday afternoon
and expands southward toward the NE FL Interstate 10 corridor
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The latest NBM model
guidance has increased probabilities of snow > 1 inch across SE GA
Tuesday night from 20-30% (low) in the prior model run to now a
30-50% (medium) chance, with the highest potential accumulations
north of a Homerville to Waycross to Everett line. The chance of
freezing rain has also increased in the latest NBM model runs and
the greatest probabilities focus near the FL-GA state-line from
ESE of Waycross southward toward the NE FL I-10 corridor from
Baldwin toward Lake City. The 24-hr chances of freezing rain >
0.10" have increased in these area from 20-30% (low) in the prior
model runs to now 30-40% (medium).

For planning purposes, these probabilities are based around 1
inch or more of possible snowfall accumulation during the 24 hr
window from 7 am Tue morning to 7 am Wed morning. For freezing
rain probabilities, these are based on potential accumulations of
> 0.10". Although the exact extent and type of wintry
precipitation is still being refined and accumulation potential
is still very uncertain, it is important to note that ice
accumulations can cause significant impacts to local power lines,
trees and cause very dangerous transportation conditions. It
would be prudent for local interests, especially across SE GA, the
Suwannee River Valley, and near the NE FL Interstate 10 corridor
to consider early winter weather preparations this weekend
including stocking supply kits, consider loss of power and plan
for safe heating alternatives.

Drier conditions will filter across the area Wednesday afternoon
as surface high pressure builds NNE of region. Inland freezes and
hard freezes are likely both Tue and Wed nights with daytime highs
only in the 40s across SE GA both days (potentially only the
mid/upper 30s on Wednesday) with near 50 across north-central FL
Tue cooling into the 40s Wednesday. Wind chills are expected to
fall into the upper teens and 20s across SE GA and the Suwannee
River Valley both nights to the mid to upper 20s for much of NE FL
and cold weather advisories will likely be needed. Gusty
northerly winds Wednesday will make for wind chills in the 20s and
30s through early afternoon.

Thursday & Friday...Well below normal temperatures with a chance
of showers as models are indicating another coastal trough
developing offshore and breezy NNE winds Thu, then WNW winds Fri
as a low forms within the coastal trough and tracks NE of the
region trailed by high pressure building in from the Gulf Coast
weekend into the weekend. Inland freezes are possible for SE GA
and portions of the Suwannee River Valley both Thu and Fri nights
with chilly daytime highs only in the 40s across SE GA to 50s
across most of NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

A developing low will move north along the FL peninsula tonight
leading to increasing clouds and lowering ceilings to MVFR levels
after 09Z as moisture increases with the system. Some improvement
to VFR expected around 14-15Z except for SSI which will have VCSH
through most of the day and ceilings broken around 3.5 kft under
mid level overcast skies. A warm front will linger between the
departing low to the northeast and a developing low to the west
along the Gulf coast. Ahead of this low, rain showers will fill in
by mid to late afternoon across all TAF sites and ceilings will
lower down to LIFR conditions at SSI around 19z and MVFR at JAX,
CRG, and SSI after 21-22Z. As the low moves in from the west, it
will drag a strong cold front through the area late Saturday night
lowering ceilings further at JAX and VQQ around 03z to LIFR
conditions. There is a low chance of T`storms ahead of the front
that may move towards the terminals but have left out VCTS at this
time due to low confidence of formation location.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Showers continue to spread from the south across the waters this
morning as low pressure moves north along the Florida peninsula.
The low will exit northeast away from the local waters as another
low develops to the west along the Gulf coast. A pre- frontal band
of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the waters
late this evening and over night, then the cold front will move
south across the local waters late Sunday trailed by a cold
airmass and increasing northerly winds into Monday. A strong high
pressure will build northwest of the region Monday into Tuesday
with a wave of low pressure developing over the northern Gulf. The
pressure gradient between the strong high to the northwest and
the developing low will promote Small Craft Advisory conditions
through at least mid- week. There is a chance of rain and snow
showers across the southeast Georgia waters Tuesday night.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip current over the weekend at all area
beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 258 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2025

Daily record low maximum temperatures could be challenged Monday
Jan. 20th through Thursday Jan. 23rd with highs only in the upper
30s to low/mid 40s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  58  62  25 /  90  70  20   0
SSI  62  57  65  29 /  70  90  50   0
JAX  70  61  68  29 /  70 100  70  10
SGJ  72  62  70  33 /  50  90  90  10
GNV  72  64  66  30 /  50  90  80  10
OCF  74  65  68  34 /  30  80  90  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ472-474.

&&

$$