Miami, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

597
FXUS62 KMFL 072328
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
728 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 719 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Diurnal convection has been pretty sparse today as surface
dewpoints ended up being a few degrees lower than forecast over
interior areas. This likely limited low level instability, along
with the drier air aloft. Only a few showers managing to form
along the Gulf seabreeze across interior Collier and near the
Hendry/Lee County line. Reduced PoPs for this evening to only
include a low chance at best across inland SW Florida before any
lingering activity decreases. Remainder of the forecast is on
track and a dry night is in store with lows in the 60s interior to
lower/mid 70s east coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Models remain in fair agreement in bringing mid-levgel ridging
across the area to start the forecast period, along with warmer
500mb temps and a decrease in moisture over SoFlo. Meanwhile,
latest sfc analyses depict a stationary/decaying frontal boundary
lingering over the SE CONUS and northern Florida. This synoptic
scenario will help in decreasing shower and storm activity today.
The influence of the frontal boundary will keep a prevailing SE
component to sfc winds, and with the best pool of moisture
lingering over the northern half of SoFlo during the short term.
PoPs/Wx coverage will drop into the 30-40 percent range and mainly
north of I-75. Higher chances of showers and thunderstorms will
reside over Glades county and the Lake region.

Daytime heating will again provide for development of sea breeze
boundaries, which will become focal points for deeper convection as
the boundaries push inland. However, an isolated strong
thunderstorm or two may still develop near the Atlantic coast,
especially over eastern Palm Beach county each afternoon. Main
hazards with any thunderstorm that forms will be strong gusty
winds, potential for large hail, and locally heavy rain.

With the establishing mid level ridge, and overall subsidence
returning to SoFlo, afternoon temperatures will warm up into the
upper 80s to low 90s across much of interior and western areas. The
SE flow may keep the Atlantic coastal areas in the low-mid 80s. In
addition, heat index values may rise into the upper 90s or even

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025

This Weekend...
Long range models are showing a cut off low developing over the
Southern Gulf Coast States this weekend as the mid level ridge
slowly shifts eastward into the Western Atlantic Waters. This will
keep a southeast wind flow over South Florida this weekend but
allow for some moisture to return to the region from the south.
This will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
each day with the best coverage over the interior and western
areas of South Florida.

Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 over most areas except
mid 80s east coast metro areas. However, the heat index readings
will be in the mid to upper 90s over most areas except lower to
mid 90s east coast metro areas each day. Lows each night will be
around 70 over most areas, except lower to mid 70s east coast
metro areas.

Early Next Week...
The ridge of high pressure will break down allowing for the cut
off low over the Southern Gulf Coast States to move northeast
toward the Great Lakes Region. This will allow an associated front
to move southeast and into the Florida Peninsula before washing
out over the Lake Okeechobee region. This in turn will allow for
more of a southerly flow over South Florida bringing in deeper
tropical moisture from the south. Therefore, POPs will be in 60 to
80 percent range each day over South Florida with the best
coverage over the Northern areas.

At the same time, the long range models are showing a low to mid
level jet developing in the Gulf and moving eastward across the
Florida Peninsula. This should allow for the 500 mb temps to cool
down to around -9 to -10C over the region. With these cool
temperatures aloft, a few of the storms could become strong over
the region especially if the sea breezes develop and collide.

The long range models are also showing forecast PWAT values to
increase to 1.8 to 2 inches early next week which would be near
the 90 percentile range for this time of year. If this trend
continue, then there could also be some heavy rainfall for South
Florida especially where any thunderstorms train over the same
area.

Despite the increasing trend in rain activity early next week,
temperatures are expected to remain on the warm side with highs
in the mid-upper 80s for coastal locations, and into the low-mid
90s over inland/southwest areas. Heat index values will likely
reach the 90s on the warmer days. Lows will be around 70 over most
areas except lower to mid 70s east coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025

VFR at all terminals through the forecast period, with only brief
MVFR ceilings possible in the 12z-18z time frame due to diurnal
heating. SHRA/TSRA dissipating over the interior by 02z, then for
Thursday any convection will be focused over interior areas after
18z with little to no impacts at terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

High pressure across the area will keep a gentle to moderate
southeasterly wind in place through the end of the week, except for
periods of winds shifting to the southwest over the Gulf waters as
sea breezes develop each afternoon. A few isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, with possible brief
periods rough seas and gusty winds accompanying any thunderstorm
that forms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  87  75  87 /   0  10   0  20
West Kendall     71  89  72  89 /   0  10   0  20
Opa-Locka        74  89  74  89 /   0  10   0  20
Homestead        74  87  74  87 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  74  85  74  86 /   0  10  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  74  86  74  87 /   0  10  10  20
Pembroke Pines   75  91  76  92 /   0  10   0  20
West Palm Beach  72  87  72  87 /   0  20  10  20
Boca Raton       73  88  73  88 /   0  10  10  20
Naples           72  89  72  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...Molleda
UPDATE...Molleda