Melbourne, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

675
FXUS62 KMLB 071830
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
230 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

- Hot and very humid conditions with scattered daily lightning
  storms into early next week.

- Hazy skies this weekend due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Today-Tonight... Upper-level high pressure over Texas will continue
to expand eastward across the Gulf and over the Florida peninsula.
At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic will shift
southward into tonight, with the ridge axis remaining draped across
central-south Florida. Locally, SW/W flow will dominate, with the
winds becoming onshore along the coast in the afternoon with the
formation of the east coast sea breeze. Much like yesterday however,
the sea breeze will remain pinned along the coast due to the
dominate westerly flow. Modest lapse rates and warmer temperatures
aloft (-6.5 to -7C at 500 mb) supports below normal rain chances
once again today, with the NBM PoPs coming in way too high. Thus,
have continued to blend in CONSAll guidance to maintain a low (20-30
percent) chance for rain and lightning storms this afternoon and
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to
form along the coast as the east coast sea breeze pushes onshore,
with additional storms potentially pushing in from the west coast.
CAMs indicate the highest coverage of storms will be along the
coast, mainly from Melbourne northward, late afternoon/early evening
where boundary interactions between the sea breezes and outflow
boundaries will occur. Main storm threats will be gusty winds of 30-
45 mph (but up to 50 mph will be possible if storms take advantage
of the drier air aloft), occasional to frequent lightning, and
locally heavy rainfall. Any lingering activity will push offshore
through the evening hours.

Temperatures will be hot and humid once again today, with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices of 100-105F.
Depending on how far the sea breeze pushes inland this afternoon,
Melbourne could get close to or even reach/break their daily record
high (record is 95 degrees set in 2014). Tonight, mostly dry
conditions are forecast across land areas, with isolated to
scattered showers and storms possible along the Atlantic waters.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

Sunday... The pattern generally continues on Sunday, with the surface
high pressure over the western Atlantic continuing to shift
southward, with the axis remaining over south-central Florida.
Locally, SW/W flow will dominate, with the winds once again becoming
onshore along the coast in the afternoon with the formation of the
east coast sea breeze. Due to the dominate offshore flow, the sea
breeze will once again become pinned along the coast. Lower than
normal rain chances will continue, with modest lapse rates and
warmer temperatures aloft (-6.5 to -7C at 500 mb)supporting lowering
rain chances from the NBM (and blending in CONSAll to lower PoPs).
There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance for rain and
lightning storms in the afternoon and early evening. Highest
potential for storms will be along the coast, mainly from Melbourne
northward, where boundary collisions between the sea breezes and
outflow boundaries are forecast to occur in the late afternoon
before pushing offshore through the evening. Main storm threats will
be gusty winds of 30-45 mph (but up to 50 mph will be possible if
storms take advantage of the drier air aloft), occasional to
frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Hot and humid
conditions are forecast once again, with afternoon highs in the low
to mid 90s and peak heat indices of 100-105F. Mostly dry overnight
with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Friday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Surface high
pressure continues to push further seaward from mid to late week,
with the associated ridge axis drifting northward. As such, the
ECSB should be able to penetrate further inland from Wed onward
as the overall flow becomes ESE/SE nearly areawide and daily sea
breeze collisions will be well into the interior. W/SW storm
steering weakens Mon/Tue, then becomes light to variable on Wed,
then SERLY Thu/Fri. The WRLY flow in the mid-levels weakens by Wed
with weak mid-level ridging building back toward the FL peninsula
from the western Atlc. A few mid-level impulses will traverse the
north- central peninsula early in the period, but generally
remain north. Continue to undercut the absurd NBM PoP numbers down
to 50-60pct which, too, could also be generous. High temps remain
hot and humid through at least Tue, before a more dominant east
coast sea breeze develops into mid-late week. Highs remaining in
the L-M90s early in the week, then U80s to L90s Wed-Fri. Overnight
mins continue in the L-M70s. Peak heat indices 98-105F remain
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Today-Wednesday... (Modified Previous Discussion) Continued
generally favorable boating conditions through mid-week next week,
as high pressure ridging remains across the south-central FL
peninsula. The main threat will be scattered offshore-moving showers
and lightning storms each afternoon and evening. South to southwest
flow will back southeasterly along the coast each afternoon and
increase to 10-15 kts as the east coast sea breeze develops, but
remains pinned close to the coast through early next week. Onshore
flow develops on Wednesday, with a more dominate east coast sea
breeze forecast. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Mainly VFR. There is a low probability of a shower or storm
developing near TIX/MLB this afternoon, but do not have enough
confidence to justify a mention of VCSH/VCTS in this TAF package.
Will monitor these sites and AMD if needed. Otherwise, dry
conditions are forecast at east central Florida terminals. A sea
breeze is beginning to develop along the Brevard and Treasure
Coast, but will struggle to make it very far inland. Southwest
winds around 10 kts at all terminals, shifting south-southeast at
coastal terminals behind the sea breeze. Light south-southwest
flow is forecast overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  94  72  93 /  10  40  10  40
MCO  75  94  74  94 /  10  30  10  50
MLB  74  91  74  89 /  10  30  20  40
VRB  72  92  74  90 /  10  20  10  40
LEE  75  93  75  94 /  10  30   0  40
SFB  75  94  74  95 /  10  30  10  50
ORL  76  94  75  94 /  10  30  10  50
FPR  72  91  73  89 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Law