Largo, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

802
FXUS62 KTBW 071400
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1000 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
12Z TBW sounding showing PWATs at around 1.6 inches similar to
yesterday as satellite imagery shows SAL over the region
continues to suppress summertime convection again today with
isolated showers near the coast this morning pushing inland on SW
low level flow with scattered SHRA/TSRA over inland areas later
this afternoon with warm and humid conditions continuing. Latest
grids and forecasts on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions expected to continue with as mornings SCT lcl
BKN025-030k ft cigs lift shortly with ISOLD inland TSRA this
afternoon. SW wind flow to enhance with the seabreeze then lighten
after 00Z.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025
POPs will continue to run significantly below NBM guidance
through the forecast period. High pressure surface and aloft will
hold over the region through the weekend. Residual SAL will
persist over much of the area with wedge of dry mid level air
acting to suppress convection each day. The surface ridge axis
will hold across the Florida straits with onshore west to
southwest boundary layer flow. This will push the west coast sea
breeze inland by early afternoon with only a slight chance of a
shower or thunderstorm across west central and southwest Florida
today...with again slight chance pops over the coastal counties
and low end chance pops over the interior during the mid/late
afternoon on Sunday.

Deep layer moisture will begin to recover on Monday from south to
north...with drier air aloft likely holding over the northern
forecast area. Onshore boundary layer flow will continue with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing during the
late morning/early afternoon over the coastal counties...then
pushing inland with a slight increase in areal coverage during the
mid/late afternoon.

The surface ridge axis will lift north across the central Florida
peninsula on Tuesday. This will lead to best chance pops over
inland areas during the mid/late afternoon hours as west/east
coast sea breeze boundaries likely to collide over the interior
and enhance shower/thunderstorm activity.

Wednesday through Friday...the surface ridge axis will continue
to lift north with east to southeast boundary layer flow
developing across west central and southwest Florida. This should
hold the west coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal
counties...with the east coast sea breeze boundary colliding with
the west coast sea breeze late in the day enhancing
shower/thunderstorm activity...with highest pops each day over the
coastal counties.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025
High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with
winds remaining below cautionary levels. Main hazard will be
a few showers/thunderstorms mainly during the late night/early
morning hours. As the wind flow shifts to the east/southeast
middle of next week...best chance of showers/storms will be during
the evening hours as storms move off the mainland and over the
coastal waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  79  91  79 /  20   0  20  10
FMY  93  76  92  76 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  94  75  94  75 /  20  10  30  10
SRQ  89  77  89  76 /  10  10  20  10
BKV  91  72  92  71 /  20   0  20  10
SPG  88  79  88  79 /  20  10  20  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle