Jacksonville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

615
FXUS62 KJAX 040524
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1224 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 729 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

No change to forecast this evening as high pressure still on track
to build over the local area later tonight which will lead to good
radiational cooling conditions under clear skies and winds
becoming near calm over inland areas and falling to 5-10 mph along
the Atlantic Coast. Hard Freeze/Lows in the middle 20s still on
track for inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL,
along with some lower 20s possible in normally colder locations.
Widespread light/medium freeze with lower 30s/upper 20s along the
US-301 corridor to just West of the I-95 corridor, with Frost
Advisories along the St. Johns River Basin south of JAX where
middle 30s are expected. Lows in the upper 30s/near 40 along the
NE FL Atlantic Coastal areas with some patchy frost possible. With
near calm winds inland around sunrise Wednesday, expecting
widespread frost along with the sub- freezing temps. Sunny skies
with the high pressure directly overhead on Wednesday with Max
temps slightly milder than today with highs in the upper 50s
across SE GA and lower 60s across NE FL.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 231 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Afternoon surface analysis depicts Arctic high pressure (1039
millibars) centered over the Tennessee Valley and building
southeastward. Meanwhile, a reinforcing, dry cold front continues
pushing southward across the Interstate 4 corridor in the FL
peninsula. Aloft...deep troughing covers the eastern half of the
nation. Breezy northwesterly winds were countering full sunshine
across our region, with temperatures at 19Z ranging from around 50
degrees across inland southeast GA to around 60 in north central
FL and coastal northeast FL. Dewpoints were falling through the
20s for locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor,
ranging to the lower 30s across north central FL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 231 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Arctic high pressure will build southeastward into our region
this evening, setting up radiational cooling at inland locations
overnight that will provide the coldest temperatures of the season
thus far to our area. A Hard Freeze is expected across all of
inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, where lows will fall
to the low and mid 20s. Temperatures at these locations will fall
below freezing before midnight, and a heavy frost will accompany
this hard freeze. A light freeze and widespread, heavy frost will
occur elsewhere in northeast and north central FL for locations
west of the St. Johns River, where lows will fall to the upper 20s
to around 30. Areas to widespread frost will extend to coastal
locations in southeast GA and portions of northeast FL, including
locations along and west of Interstate 95, where lows will fall to
the lower 30s. A light northerly breeze overnight and some
incursion of marine stratocumulus from the Atlantic waters should
keep lows in the mid to upper 30s along the immediate coast and
urban areas in northeast FL, where patchy to areas of frost will
be possible during the overnight and early morning hours on
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 231 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

High pressure settles over the area Wednesday bringing in dry air
and mostly sunny skies. Daytime highs will be in the mid 50s to
low 60s over Southeast Georgia and low to mid 60s over Northeast
Florida. Overnight, a cold front moving in from the northwest will
slowly push the high pressure system south with moisture from the
Gulf beginning to build in ahead of the front. This moisture will
help create some cloud cover and keep night time low temperatures
in the mid to upper 30s inland and temperatures in the low to mid
40s along the coast. Thursday, moisture continues to fill into
the area ahead of the cold front that will make its way through
the area throughout the day. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies
with a small chance (10%) of precipitation, mainly over southeast
Georgia. Daytime highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s over
southeast Georgia with temperatures reaching into the low 70s for
northeast Florida. Thursday night, overnight lows will be in the
30s over southeast Georgia and upper 30s to low 50s over northeast
Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

High pressure fills in behind the cold front but will only create
drier conditions temporarily. Moisture will begin to fill in over
the weekend and into the beginning of next week increasing chances
for precipitation for Monday and Tuesday. Daytime highs will
slowly increase from the 50s and 60s to the 70s towards the
beginning of next week. Overnight lows will gradually increase as
well, getting out of the 30s and 40s and into the 50s by next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conds expected through the period. Winds becoming variable at
5 knots or less through the TAF period for all TAF sites save SGJ
which will remain northerly at around 8 knots tonight and then
becoming light and variable on Wednesday. Some low level
stratocumulus clouds are possible at SGJ through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Gusty north-northwesterly winds will continue early this evening
before shifting to northerly while gradually diminishing
overnight. Small Craft Advisory level wind speeds around 20 knots
will linger through this evening for the offshore waters adjacent
to northeast Florida, with Caution level speeds of 15-20 knots
continuing elsewhere this evening. Caution level seas of 4-6 feet
will prevail tonight for the offshore waters adjacent to
northeast FL, with 3-5 foot seas elsewhere.

Winds and seas will continue to diminish on Wednesday as high
pressure settles directly over our local waters. Westerly winds
will then strengthen late on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead of
another strong cold front that will pass across our area on
Thursday evening. Caution level wind speeds are expected to
develop for the offshore waters by late Wednesday night and
Thursday ahead of this approaching front. Northerly winds will
then strengthen in the wake of this dry frontal passage late on
Thursday night and Friday. Winds and seas will then gradually
diminish this weekend as another high pressure center builds
directly over our local waters.

Rip Currents: A fading ocean swell and diminishing surf heights
should yield a low risk at area beaches on Wednesday, with breezy
offshore winds on Thursday expected to keep the risk low.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Transport and surface winds will diminish towards sunset this
evening and will shift to northeasterly overnight. Surface and
transport winds will then become southwesterly on Wednesday
afternoon, with light speeds resulting in low daytime dispersion
values inland and poor daytime dispersion values at coastal
locations on Wednesday. Minimum humidity values will fall to the
30-35 percent range this afternoon, with critically low humidity
values possible across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley
on Wednesday afternoon. Red Flag conditions are not expected due
to light winds. West-southwesterly surface and transport speeds
will then increase on Thursday, with fair daytime dispersion
values forecast across inland southeast GA and good daytime
dispersion values expected elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  37  63  31 /   0   0  10   0
SSI  57  45  67  40 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  60  40  71  41 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  61  43  71  49 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  63  39  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  65  39  72  47 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-120-136-220-232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ033-038-124-
     125-132-137-140-225-325.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$