Deerfield Beach, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

609
FXUS62 KMFL 122340
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
740 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

The second line of showers and thunderstorms is beginning to push
offshore, but there will be potential for one final round
overnight as deep layer moisture presence continues and a
disturbance looks to approach northwards from Cuba. This
disturbance would provide the necessary lift for further
convection given the moisture in place. We will monitor trends
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

As the first wave of heavy rainfall has pushed offshore into the
Atlantic waters, most of South Florida remains in lull in activity
heading into the early afternoon hours. Moisture still remains
abundant over the area and PWAT values will remain high ranging
between 2.0 and 2.2 inches through the early evening hours. Looking
at the latest visible satellite imagery, some breaks in the clouds
are occurring to the southwest and this trend will continue
especially along and south of Alligator Alley through the mid
afternoon hours. These breaks in the cloud cover will allow for the
potential for additional destabilization especially during peak
heating hours where CAPE Values could range between 2000 to 2500
J/kg. This will allow for the redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms across the region as the afternoon progresses. As far
as strong to severe thunderstorm development is concerned, the main
question will be if enough destabilization could take place after
this mornings round of widespread rain to be supportive of stronger
storm development. The latest CAMs are still showing signals that
there will be enough heating, especially across the eastern areas to
support thunderstorms with strong gusty winds later this afternoon
into the evening hours.

With an abundance of deep layer moisture remaining in place, showers
and thunderstorms will be able to achieve high rainfall rates
especially heading into the late afternoon and early evening hours.
This will allow for the potential for additional flooding to
continue into the evening hours as multiple rounds of heavy downpours
will still be possible especially in the metro areas where some
flooding has occurred earlier in the day. The latest QPF forecast
still seems to be on track as a general 2 to 4 inches fell over the
east coast metro areas with the first round of rain through the
early morning hours and 1 to 3 inches have fallen along the Gulf
coast. With the potential for more heavy rainfall especially across
the east coast metro areas, this could produce an additional 1 to 3
inches of rain in general with localized higher amounts of up to 5
inches where training of the stronger thunderstorms occur.

During the late evening and into the overnight hours, the frontal
boundary will finally push offshore into the western Atlantic and
some drier air will start to push in behind it allowing for rainfall
to gradually diminish overnight. As high pressure builds back into
the region on Tuesday, drier air will start to build back into the
region from the northwest. While this drier air will bring clearing
to Southwest Florida as the day progresses, lingering moisture will
be slow to clear out of the eastern half of the region as the front
remains just off to the east. This lingering moisture will be enough
to support the development of another round of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours as peak diurnal heating
will increase instability over these areas. With these areas being
saturated from heavy rainfall today, any additional heavy downpours
on Tuesday will create the potential for additional flooding. With
less cloud cover on Tuesday, high temperatures will be able to rise
into the mid to upper 80s across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Surface high pressure and mid-level ridging will begin to build over
the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, ushering in a prolonged
period of dry and hot weather for South Florida. Generally
southerly flow will advect an exceptionally dry air mass over the
region through the latter half of the week, with PWATs dropping
below an inch, well below the 10th percentile for this time of the
year. With subsidence helping to limit cloud coverage and any
convective development, temperatures will gradually warm up
through the extended period. Highs could peak in the upper 80s and lower
90s Wednesday and Thursday before rising into the mid to upper
90s over the weekend. Heat indices will climb over the weekend,
potentially reaching the triple digits across the southwest/interior
Florida on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

The second line of showers and storms is beginning to push
offshore, but MVFR/IFR CIGs will be seen until the line clears in
the next couple hours. Tonight, there will be a potential final
round of showers and storms into the late night hours, thus have
kept VCTS in overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will continue across the
Atlantic waters for this afternoon before become more southerly
tonight. South to southwesterly winds already in place over the Gulf
waters will continue through Tuesday. Winds will gradually diminish
across all local waters on Tuesday. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue across all local waters through the
evening hours. Strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and
waterspouts are possible with the strongest storms through tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms could linger across the Atlantic waters
into Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast
beaches as a persistent onshore flow continues. The risk of rip
currents may remain elevated across the Atlantic Coast beaches
through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            75  85  71  86 /  80  60  30  20
West Kendall     72  88  68  89 /  80  60  20  20
Opa-Locka        74  88  70  88 /  80  60  20  20
Homestead        74  87  70  87 /  80  70  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  73  85  70  84 /  80  60  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  73  85  70  85 /  80  60  30  20
Pembroke Pines   75  90  72  90 /  80  60  20  20
West Palm Beach  72  86  68  85 /  80  40  30  20
Boca Raton       72  87  69  87 /  80  50  30  20
Naples           72  85  70  85 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Redman