Daytona Beach, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

820
FXUS62 KMLB 301500
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1000 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 950 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

- Patchy fog redeveloping late tonight with marine fog on the
  Atlantic waters

- Breezy and warm on Friday ahead of a slowing and weakening cold
  front, forecast to arrive on Saturday

- Confidence increasing in above normal temperatures through the
  first full week of February

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

The dense fog over Lake county has lifted so was able to cancel
the Dense Fog Adv a little early. Winds will veer northeast to
east today as the clockwise circulation around high pressure
pushes off the mid Atlantic coast. Morning Cape (XMR) sounding
shows considerable dry air in the low levels with a little more
moisture in the mid and upper levels. So expect some strands of
cirrus passing high overhead with mostly sunny skies. No
significant changes to near term forecast today.

There will be a better chance for marine (sea) fog developing
overnight and continuing into Friday as warm, more moist southerly
flow moves over the chilly ocean temps. So plan to expand the
patchy fog to the adjacent Atlc waters. This marine fog/stratus
may persist much of the day tomorrow.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

Today-Tonight...High pressure sticks around as temperatures
climb quickly this afternoon under a mostly clear sky. The warmest
locations will be across the interior south of Lake Kissimmee,
where a couple of 80-degree readings are possible. Most everywhere
else will range from the low 70s (at the coast) to the mid and
upper 70s. A light north wind this morning will turn east-
southeast by late afternoon. Tonight, temperatures retreat into
the mid 50s to low 60s, which is about 5-10 degrees above normal
for late January.

Friday-Saturday...Patchy fog is possible once again Friday morning
for much of the area, but greater detail will become available
later this afternoon and evening on any potential impacts. After
the Friday morning fog, surface high pressure begins to move east.
This allows winds to veer more southerly, strengthening in
concert with a tightening pressure gradient over north-central
Florida. Higher gusts around 20 mph are likely with the NBM upper
quartile around 25 mph for many locations. Temperatures will surge
into the upper 70s to mid 80s Friday afternoon, and forecast
highs skew slightly toward the NBM75 percentile.

A mid-level trough will swing through the TN Valley Friday
afternoon/evening, while at the surface, a cold front advances
east across the Gulf Coast. The front becomes lackluster as it
approaches and stalls near east-central Florida on Saturday, only
providing a 15% chance of light showers, mainly north of Orlando
and Titusville. In fact, the official forecast does not call for
measurable precipitation at this time. Slightly cooler
temperatures are expected Saturday afternoon, ranging from the low
70s along the Volusia coast to the low 80s around Lake
Okeechobee.

Sunday-Wednesday...We pick things back up where we left off on
Friday, in terms of a warming trend into next week. High pressure
gradually builds in with mid-upper level ridging keeping the more
active jet pattern well north of the area. The aforementioned
front, stalled over central Florida Sunday into next week, may try
to produce light shower activity in its vicinity. Model
discrepancies exist, with the ECMWF ensemble mean showing the
most QPF (generally 0.10" or less through Thursday morning). The
GEFS mean is under 0.05" most places and the Canadian is somewhere
in between the EPS and GEFS. Due to low confidence in any one
solution set, this forecast does not explicitly mention rainfall
Sunday-Wednesday. Just know that there is a potential for light
rain wherever the stalled front sets up late weekend into early
next week, and rain chances will be introduced if/when confidence
increases.

With high pressure in place, light onshore flow will be featured
with temperatures reaching the mid 70s to low 80s each afternoon.
Cloud cover looks to be greatest on Sunday, so the warmest days
are anticipated by the work week. A majority of the area west of
I-95 should have little issue reaching the low 80s, and the
potential is there (NBM probabilities around 30-40%) for
locations south of Lake Kissimmee to reach 85 degrees on Monday.
For perspective, we will be in the neighborhood of 5-10 degrees
above normal from Sunday into the middle of next week. That said,
it does not appear that any temperature records are in jeopardy of
being broken. Based on the 8-14 Day CPC Outlooks, the first half
of February is looking to be warmer than normal with near to
slightly below normal precipitation across east-central Florida.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

A stretch of generally favorable boating is forecast, with the
exception of poor conditions offshore (north of Sebastian Inlet)
from Friday through early Saturday morning.

Winds...10-12 kt winds are forecast today, veering from a
northerly to an east-southeasterly direction. Speeds increase into
tonight as direction veers southwesterly, reaching 15-18 kt
offshore by daybreak Friday. Gusts 20-25 kt are possible Friday
and Friday night, mainly north of Sebastian Inlet in the offshore
Volusia and Brevard waters. Lighter west-northwest wind then veers
onshore once again by Sunday with speeds generally 10 kt or less
into the first half of next week.

Seas...Wave heights remain 2-3 ft through tonight, increasing up
to 4-5 ft offshore on Friday, north of Sebastian Inlet (20-60nm).
Seas remain generally favorable and steady state into next week
around 2-4 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

LEE remains socked in with LIFR conditions due to fog, so have
made their prevailing line LIFR through 15Z. Mainly VFR elsewhere,
though SFB has started to bounce around a bit with their
visibilities. Added a TEMPO through 14Z for 1SM VIS. Will continue
to monitor the potential for VIS reductions at MCO and ISM,
though guidance has become less confident in fog development at
these terminals this morning. Removed their TEMPOs earlier in the
night, and kept it that way with the morning forecast. Will amend
as needed if something changes. Light and variable winds becoming
southeasterly this afternoon, then south- southeast overnight.
Dry through the period. Patchy fog once again looks possible
across the terminals overnight, but still way too early to add in
VIS and/or CIG reductions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  56  80  59 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  77  59  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  73  58  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  76  60  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  78  58  82  62 /   0   0   0  20
SFB  77  58  83  61 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  78  58  82  62 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  76  60  81  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Tollefsen