Clearwater, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

799
FXUS62 KTBW 310719
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
319 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Early morning IR satellite and radar imagery is showing a band of
moisture and developing thunderstorms sprawled across northern
Florida associated with an incoming decaying cold front. This
storm system will progress south through the forecast area today,
with numerous showers and storms. Despite only modest shear being
present, cooler temperatures moving in aloft will increase lapse
rates and allow for a few strong or damaging storms to be possible
with the convection today.

As the front dissipates across the Florida Peninsula, drier and
slightly cooler air will fill into the northern half of the forecast
area by Sunday. However, deeper moisture will linger over southwest
Florida and the adjacent Gulf waters Sunday through early next week,
leading to scattered to numerous storms each day from around the
Tampa Bay south.

Surface high pressure will setup north of Florida by Tuesday and
hold through the rest of the week, favoring easterly flow. This
pattern will result in storms building towards the west coast of
Florida late in the afternoon and evening each day. While the
highest rain chances will remain over southwest Florida, moisture
(and rain chances) will gradually spread back northward during the
middle and later half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Conditions will deteriorate from north to south this morning as
bands of showers push through the region ahead of a cold front.
Storms will bring periods of low visibility and reduced ceilings
and gusty winds. Drier air will fill in behind the system during
the afternoon, bringing a return to VFR conditions that should
hold through the rest of the afternoon and evening. After
midnight, another round of showers is expected to shift onshore
from the Gulf early Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

Areas of showers and storms will continue to move south through the
waters today ahead of a weak cold front. Generally west and
northwest flow will run less than 15 knots, although locally
higher and variable winds are expected in the vicinity of the
strongest storms. The front will dissipate by tonight, with
lingering moisture from around the Tampa Bay south fueling
continued rain chances Sunday through early next week. High
pressure will setup north of Florida by Tuesday and Wednesday,
leading to east and southeast flow, turning onshore near the coast
with the afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

No humidity concerns. Showers and storms will push south through the
area today ahead of a decaying cold front, with a few strong
storms possible. Drier conditions will fill in behind the front,
but lingering moisture will hold over southwest Florida and allow
for more showers to shift onshore early Sunday morning and
continue to build inland through the afternoon. High dispersion
indices will be possible both afternoons this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  76  89  77 /  80  20  30  40
FMY  89  75  89  75 /  80  70  70  60
GIF  85  72  89  72 /  70  20  40  40
SRQ  86  75  88  75 /  90  50  40  60
BKV  86  66  90  67 /  70  10  20  30
SPG  84  77  86  77 /  80  30  30  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Fleming