Brandon, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

434
FXUS62 KTBW 111456
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1056 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

A fairly quiet morning with mostly clear skies across the
peninsula. On tap for today, are highs in 80s with breezy westerly
winds along with dangerous beach conditions an high risk for rip
currents. Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Polk Co. given
the dry conditions and breezy winds anticipated.

This afternoon and evening, weather conditions will begin to
deteriorate as upper level trough pushes over the region. This
morning`s sounding showed a deep layer of dry air, which will be
the limiting factor later tonight when frontal boundary moves
across the area. In addition, though model guidance brings plenty
of upper level support, given the timing of the front that may not
be enough instability to support widespread coverage of storms.

No changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Troughing aloft remains over the E U.S. this morning, while
surface ridging ridges down the E Seaboard across the state into
the Gulf south of a frontal boundary draped across the N Gulf
states. The front will push across the state this evening and
overnight, preceded by showers and storms, a few of which may be
severe accompanied by a large hail and damaging wind gust threat.
SPC continues to advertise a Marginal Risk across the Nature
Coast, extending south across western Hernando and coastal Pasco
counties to just north and west of Tampa Bay. While guidance does
not indicate widespread coverage of showers and storms, it does
continue to indicate an isolated severe potential with what
convection that does manage to develop. Timing continues to favor
late afternoon through early to mid evening for the greatest
threat across the northern Nature Coast, and late evening into the
early overnight hours further south across areas closer to WCFL.
The storm threat looks to diminish south of the I-4 corridor
although some showers may persist into the interior and SWFL later
into the night before diminishing. Breezy westerly winds are
likely to develop this afternoon across much of the area preceding
the front, with an elevated fire potential likely over the
interior, and Red Flag Warning in effect for Polk County this
afternoon into early evening. Warm conditions expected with highs
in the lower to mid 80s.

High pressure builds into the region on Saturday as the front
departs, with cooler and drier air filtering into the state under
mostly sunny skies and continued occasionally breezy conditions
particularly during the afternoon. Highs generally 5-8 degrees
cooler are expected, mainly in the mid to upper 70s. High Risk of
rip currents expected at area beaches on Saturday, while the
elevated fire risk is likely to persist away from the coast during
the afternoon. Lighter winds expected on Sunday should allow for
improving beach conditions and reduced fire concerns, with a
warming trend ensuing as high pressure settles over the SE U.S.
through early next week. Generally quiet weather conditions
expected through the week as temps warm into the mid to upper 80s,
with a dry front around mid week being the only item of note for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions anticipated with west to southwesterly winds
prevailing ahead of approaching front. The main line of storms is
forecast to move across during the evening hours. Though there is
some uncertainty on storm development, the potential remains at
least for SRQ northward. Winds increase during the afternoon and
become northerly towards the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  63  75  59 /   0  30   0   0
FMY  84  63  80  57 /   0  10   0   0
GIF  85  58  77  54 /   0  20   0   0
SRQ  80  64  76  59 /   0  40   0   0
BKV  81  53  74  49 /  10  30   0   0
SPG  78  66  73  62 /   0  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Saturday
     night for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal
     Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for Polk.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Delerme/Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce