Alafaya, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

352
FXUS62 KMLB 111512
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1035
AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

- High fire danger this afternoon across Greater Orlando and
surrounding areas due to increasing winds and low humidity

- Warmer today ahead of a cold front which will deliver generally
offshore moving strong isolated to scattered showers and lightning
storms tonight, especially over the northern portions of east
Central Florida. Cooler mornings return this weekend

- Drought conditions are set to worsen as a long period of mainly
dry weather is forecast through mid-April

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Local radar imagery shows mostly dry weather over east central
Florida with a couple of showers/sprinkles over the Treasure Coast
offshore (20-60nm) waters. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows mostly
clear skies over east central Florida. A cold front is situated over
the southeastern US and northern Florida which extends from low
pressure (~1012mb) over North Carolina. Temperatures are currently
in the mid 60s to low 70s with dew points in the 50s to low 60s.
Winds are generally from the west-northwest at 5-10mph.
Mostly dry weather is expected today before a cold front moves east-
southeast over central Florida tonight. Isolated showers (20%) and
lightning storms are forecast over the coastal counties, especially
from Cape Canaveral southward this evening as the east coast sea
breeze converges with west- southwest flow.

Isolated to scattered offshore moving showers (20-50%) and lightning
storms are expected tonight mainly after 8pm with the greatest
potential for any strong storms along and to the north of Melbourne
to Lake Kissimmee. Any strong lightning storms that develop will be
capable of wind gusts up to 40-50mph and occasional to frequent
lightning. A Marginal Risk for severe storms exists over far
northern Lake and Volusia counties where the potential exists for
wind gusts up to 60mph (5-14% risk). Critical fire weather
conditions are expected this afternoon with a Red Flag Warning in
effect until 7pm for Lake, Volusia, Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and
northern Brevard counties. Sensitive fire weather conditions are
expected to the south of those counties. Afternoon highs in the 80s
are forecast with west-southwest winds at 10-15mph over the inland
counties and south-southeast winds at 10-15mph expected along the
coast this afternoon with the east coast sea breeze.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

              ----------Synoptic Overview----------

The upper air weather pattern across America is characterized by
broad ridging over the Sonoran Desert and a deepening trough across
the Ohio Valley. A shortwave over Missouri will deepen the trough as
it digs into the Deep South later today, nudging a cold front
through Florida tonight. Total moisture is expected to only reach
near-normal values as the front moves overhead.

Over the weekend, the trough slowly moves into the W Atlantic with
the mid-level flow becoming zonal across the southern half of the
U.S. Continental high pressure drifts overhead, ushering in much
drier air which should stick around into early next week.

Another upper-air disturbance is forecast to push from the N Plains
to New England by Wednesday, forcing another cold front toward the
state around that time. A secondary shortwave is currently projected
to reinvigorate the trough over the Northeast late next week,
potentially sending another late-season cold front toward Florida
next Friday or Saturday. Although some members paint some rain
potential with the secondary front late next week, moisture return
appears limited ahead of both fronts. Within this pattern, surface
high pressure should be building across the state by Easter Sunday,
April 20th.

Cluster analysis is in fairly good agreement over the next 7 days,
with some timing differences becoming evident late next week.
Overall, these differences do not appear to greatly impact forecast
outcomes across Central Florida.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

Beneath a good dose of sunshine, southwest winds increase to 10-15
mph with gusts 15-25 mph by afternoon. The exception may be a pinned
sea breeze from Cape Canaveral southward where winds switch onshore.
Temps jump into the 80s as we sit ahead of the approaching cold
front. Deep mixing and an increase in boundary-layer winds will
yield near-critical fire weather conditions across much of the
district. Along the I-4 corridor, the risk for critical fire weather
conditions is highest, so we will have a Red Flag Warning for this
area (including Greater Orlando) for the afternoon and early
evening. Please avoid open burning today, properly dispose of
cigarettes, and do not park hot vehicles over dry grass.

While a stray shower may try to pop on the Treasure Coast, our eyes
will turn toward a weakening band of showers and embedded
lightning storms moving through N Florida with a cold front by
early evening. Despite very cold mid-level temps (~ -15 deg C at
18 KFT), dry near-surface air will curtail instability. This
should eat away at the coverage of this activity by the time it
finds its way toward Central FL. The SPC marginal severe risk
just clips northern Volusia & Lake Counties today. There is an
approx. 5% chance for brief gusty winds and/or hail to quarter-
size north of a Daytona Beach to Leesburg this evening. Accounting
for the impressive trough to our north, we will keep a 20% chance
for a shower or storm over these areas.

Saturday - Tuesday...

A tranquil period of weather for us as high pressure becomes
established. Drier air and lessening winds promise a couple cooler
mornings on Sunday & Monday (upper 40s/low 50s rural interior to
upper 50s/low 60s coast-urban areas). Afternoons will turn steadily
warmer, starting slightly below normal on Saturday before reaching
the mid/upper 80s early next week.

Wednesday - Next Weekend...

As mentioned in the overview, we still see a couple of cold fronts
slipping toward the state during the second half of next week as a
trough resides over the Northeast. Impacts for Florida look rather
marginal at this point as moisture remains limited. Temperatures are
forecast to dip a few degrees behind the first front on Wednesday,
particularly north of Cape Canaveral. At this time, we have no rain
in the forecast through at least next Friday. By the following
weekend, we see a small and brief chance for rain with the second
front, but this disturbance should exit before Easter Sunday.

With little rain expected over the next 1014 days, drought
conditions will likely worsen. Only a 10-15% chance for 1"+
rainfall exists across east-central Florida through April 25.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Ahead of the next cold front, south winds increase to 10-15 KT this
afternoon before shifting NW and freshening to 15-20 KT tonight
through Saturday behind the boundary. Winds decrease to NW 10-15 KT
on Sunday as high pressure approaches the local Atlantic. Afternoon
sea breezes locally enhance winds along the coast. Light winds on
Monday turn offshore 10-15 KT by Tuesday ahead of another cold front.

Nearshore seas 2-4 FT through Saturday before subsiding to 2-3 FT
Sunday through Tuesday. Gulf Stream conditions become poor on
Saturday with seas up to 6 FT lasting through early Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 722 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions continue thru the TAF period. Light WRLY component
of winds this morning will transition to onshore at the coast
later in the afternoon with sea breeze development and very
slow/minimal push inland. Speeds 10-15 kts with higher afternoon
gusts. Cold front moves thru ECFL tonight, with a low chance
(20-30%) of convection associated with this boundary - most
likely across the I-4 corridor as this activity will be on a
weakening trend. Added VCSH for KLEE from 3Z-6Z, but elsewhere
chances are too low for inclusion of "Vicinity" or "Tempo" wording
in any TAFs. W/WNW/NW post- frontal winds tonight around 10 kts
with occasional higher gusts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Ahead of an approaching cold front, southwest breezes are forecast
to increase to around 15 mph this afternoon with higher gusts -
especially along the I-4 corridor. Unusually deep mixing heights
will send drier air to the surface, with RH readings falling to
around 30-35% over the interior and even coastal areas near/north of
Cape Canaveral. For this reason, a Red Flag Warning will go into
effect this afternoon for the I-4 corridor, including Greater
Orlando. Near-critical conditions are expected over the remainder of
the district, except the immediate Space and Treasure Coasts where a
sea breeze should become pinned near the coast.

Fire-sensitive weather conditions will continue well into the
forecast as much drier air sweeps into Florida from this weekend
into early next week. RH readings from 25-35% should be attained
each day through at least Tuesday, particularly over the interior.
Winds will be relatively stronger on Saturday (NW 10-14 mph) and
Tuesday (WSW 8-12 mph) compared to Sunday and Monday.

Very good to excellent dispersion is forecast today and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  55  75  53 /  20  40   0   0
MCO  85  58  77  54 /  10  40   0   0
MLB  84  58  77  55 /  20  30   0   0
VRB  84  58  77  54 /  20  20   0   0
LEE  83  55  75  52 /  10  40   0   0
SFB  85  57  77  53 /  10  40   0   0
ORL  85  59  77  56 /  10  40   0   0
FPR  84  58  77  53 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-141-144-247-347-447.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Weitlich