Alafaya, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

312
FXUS62 KMLB 070530
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1230 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 353 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

- Locally dense fog is forecast across east central Florida
  tonight. Visibility reductions may be enhanced in vicinity of
  recent burns where fog may mix with smoke.

- Above normal temperatures (~5-10+ degrees) with mostly dry
  conditions are forecast this week and weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

Another mild, quiet evening for us with little changes required to
the inherited forecast. Hi-res and statistical guidance still
suggests fog will either develop or advect over the I-4 corridor
late tonight through early Friday morning. Some if it will likely
become dense around sunrise. Otherwise, dry air in the mid/upper
troposphere keeps us precip free through the overnight. Lows in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

Tonight... A weak high pressure axis across the area should promote
a favorable environment for fog development again tonight. Current
model runs suggests fog first developing across portions of west
Florida, drifting into portions of east central Florida through the
early morning hours. Areas of fog are forecast across the interior
while fog may remain more patchy closer to the Atlantic coast. HREF
guidance suggests areas of fog may become dense with a 30-40 percent
chance of visibilities reduced to one quarter mile or less.
Important to note, KMLB radar has shown numerous prescribed fire
plumes across central Florida this afternoon, particularly across
Osceola county. There are increased probabilities for locally
dense fog in vicinity of recent burns where lingering smoke may
mix with developing fog. If encountering dense fog while driving,
slow down, leave extra distance in front of you, and use your low
beam headlights. Any fog that develops is forecast to gradually
diminish after sunrise.

Friday-Sunday... The western flank of the Atlantic high holds in
place across east central Florida through the period. Warm and dry
conditions are forecast to persist Friday and through the weekend.
Winds remain light and variable, with predominant flow generally out
of the south to southwest. However, a weak sea breeze will develop
each afternoon backing winds east to southeast as it drifts inland.
Temperatures are forecast about 5-10 degrees above normal with highs
reaching the low 80s along the coast and mid 80s inland. Fog remains
in the picture each night. Currently highlighting the potential for
sea fog across the Brevard and Volusia nearshore waters Friday
night, with coverage expanding inland through early Saturday. Cannot
rule out sea fog lingering through the day time hours Saturday. Have
kept a broad brush mention of patchy fog across east central Florida
on Saturday night, leaning on extended SREF probabilities. Will
continue to fine tune this as CAM guidance extends further in time.

Monday-Wednesday... A series of cold fronts shift high pressure over
the Atlantic further seaward. The ridge axis in place locally
broadens and weakens early next week before becoming reinforced
Wednesday. Temperatures continue a gradual warming trend each
afternoon, remaining above normal. Low to mid 80s are forecast
Monday and Tuesday, reaching the upper 80s across portions of the
interior by mid week. Dry conditions persist.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 353 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

Tonight-Friday... High pressure holds over the local Atlantic waters
promoting favorable boating conditions. South winds around 8-10 kts
overnight diminish ahead of sunrise. Light offshore flow early
Friday backs onshore in the afternoon as the east coast seabreeze
develops. Seas forecast between 2-3 ft with up to 4 ft across the
far offshore Volusia and Brevard waters. Developing sea fog will be
possible across the local waters late Friday night.

Saturday-Monday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast through
the period. Light south to southwest winds briefly increase to 7-12
kts Saturday night. Otherwise, winds are forecast below 10 kts.
Winds back south-southeast each afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze develops. Seas of 2-3 ft gradually diminish into the weekend
with occasional seas up to 4 ft continuing across the far offshore
Volusia and Brevard waters Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1226 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Patchy fog late tonight through sunrise (~10-14Z) from MCO/SFB
westward, as fog drifts inland from the Gulf. TEMPOs have been
included for IFR conditions, though brief LIFR cannot be ruled
out, should dense fog develop. Light winds will largely prevail
through the period, though the wind direction is forecast to be
generally SW/W in the morning. Then, the sea breeze development
along the coast will lead to onshore flow at coastal terminals
after 17Z. Light winds then return near sunset. Fog looks to
remain possible again overnight into Saturday morning and will
need to be investigated for future updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  57  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  82  61  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  80  61  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  82  62  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  80  58  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  60  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  83  61  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  81  61  81  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Leahy