Townsend, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

094
FXUS61 KPHI 231937
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
237 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will be in a brisk northwest flow through Sunday as
we are between low pressure over Nova Scotia and high pressure
over the Mississippi Valley. The area of high pressure will be
centered over the Eastern United States late Sunday into Monday.
The next fast moving cold front is expected to cross our region
Tuesday. A coastal low will be near our region Thanksgiving into
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A 977mb low over Nova Scotia early this afternoon will continue
to depart and deepen as it lifts toward the Gulf of Saint Lawrence
by tonight. As a result, brisk northwest flow is anticipated as
the pressure gradient tightens over the region. Expecting wind
gusts upwards of 30 to 40 mph this afternoon, however wouldn`t
completely rule out locally higher gusts along ridge lines in the
higher terrain.

Northwest flow should subside a bit this evening, however the pressure
gradient will remain elevated with gusts up to 25 mph possible overnight.
Lows will range from the mid 30s to low 40s under partly cloudy skies.

High pressure will settle over the region on Sunday, allowing winds
to relax especially by afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The end of the weekend and into early next week look to feature fair
weather as high pressure continues across the area. Temperatures
will be a bit above normal and the winds will be less gusty compared
to Saturday. After lows in the low/mid 30s Sunday night, highs on
Monday will climb into the low/mid 50s for many areas. Readings could
reach 60 across far southern Delaware.

The next disturbance is slated to develop across OH/IN later Monday
and it looks to head across the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday with
possible redevelopment off the New England coast later Tue. It will
be a quickly moving system which should bring rains to the area Monday
night/Tue. Temperatures should continue to be above normal thru the
period, so rain is expected for all areas attm. Rainfall amounts will
only be a quarter of an inch across the north and across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period will include the Thanksgiving holiday and for
many that means travel across the area. We`ll begin the long
term rather dry as high pressure will be over the area from
Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. It`ll be seasonably
cool/cold too with highs mostly in the mid/upper 40s and lows
close to freezing in most spots.

The weather for Wednesday night and much of Thursday will be
determined by the path of a low pressure system which is expected to
develop across the Tenn. or lower Ohio Valley and track to the east.
A few forecasts model have a low moving to the Tidewater area of VA
and the deepening as it moves up the coast. This would allow plenty
of clouds and rain for our region. Up across the far north, it could
be cold enough for snow to occur too. Other forecast models either
don`t have the low, or show it weaker and further north. For now,
we`ll continue with the NBM fcst for our area which depicts either
high chance to low likely pops for our forecast region. Rain will
predominate, but snow is also mentioned for north NJ and the
southern Poconos. Temperatures will continue a little below normal
for late November. Chances for showers will linger Friday and Friday
evening as the system departs to the NE. Colder air arrives later
Friday, so some chances for snow across more of NJ and north of
Philadelphia are possible. Stay tuned for more updates with this
system, since we will be monitoring it into early next week and more
details will become available as we get closer to the time of the
event.

Cold air pours in behind the departing storm for next weekend. Temperatures
will be around 10 degrees below normal with a decent breeze too. Just
in time for the change of months.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

This afternoon...VFR. W to NW winds around 15-20 kt with occasional
gusts up to 30 kt.

Tonight...VFR. W winds around 10-15 kt occasionally gusting up
to 20 kt.

Sunday...VFR. W winds 10 to 15 knots gusting up to 25 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...VFR.

Monday night and Tuesday...Brief period of MVFR possible with rain.
W winds gusting up to 30 KT Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday... sub-VFR probable. Rain & fog low clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning is in effect for all Atlantic coastal waters and the
Delaware Bay through the afternoon. Small Craft Advisory conditions
are then expected for tonight.

Northwest winds around 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 to 38 kt possible
through this afternoon. Winds will gradually subside tonight to
20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and continue into Sunday.
Seas of 4 to 7 feet.

Outlook...

Monday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria. Fair.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Expect an abrupt shift to W winds
behind a cold front Tuesday morning. Wind gusts up to 30 kt
expected behind the front. Winds drop off late Tue night.
Occasional rain.

Wednesday...Winds should remain below 25 KT before dawn
Wednesday while seas diminish below 5 ft. sub-SCA conditions
are expected through Wednesday night. Fair.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Driest autumn (Sep-Nov) on record, and any 3-calendar month period
on record, plus current status:

                   9/1-11/22   Driest          Driest 3         Year/
Site              2024 precip  Autumn Year  Calendar months    months
Allentown (ABE)       2.86      3.81  1922      3.58        Oct-Dec 1928
A.C. Airport (ACY)    2.22      3.34  2001      2.35        Oct-Dec 1946
A.C. Marina (55N)     1.60      2.89  1941      2.52        Aug-Oct 1895
Georgetown (GED)      1.23      2.67  2001      2.20        Aug-Oct 2024
Mount Pocono (MPO)    4.25*     4.21  1931      3.36        Oct-Dec 1928
Philadelphia (PHL)    2.20      2.37  1922      2.37        Sep-Nov 1922
Reading (RDG)         2.34      2.89  1922      2.89        Sep-Nov 1922
Trenton (TTN)         2.12      3.18  1922      2.66        Jun-Aug 1966
Wilmington (ILG)      1.85      3.17  1922      3.17        Sep-Nov 1922

*Mount Pocono precipitation is only through 11/21. An updated total
through 11/22 will be available later today.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Franklin/Johnson/OHara
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/Franklin
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Franklin/OHara/Johnson
MARINE...Franklin/OHara/Johnson
CLIMATE...