Pike Creek, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

403
FXUS61 KPHI 140531
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
Issued by National Weather Service New York NY
131 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will linger across the Mid Atlantic
through the Thursday, resulting in mild and showery conditions.
Brief period of ridging comes in Thursday Night, with a warm front
coming through on Friday morning. Unsettled weather continues
through Saturday until a strong cold front comes through on Saturday
Night. Drier high pressure will settle into the region by Sunday
into early next week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level low over the Tennessee River Valley is transitioning
to an open trough, with deep south/southwesterly flow set up over
the eastern US. Forcing has increased this morning as a shortwave
moves through this morning, bringing a slug of heavier rain to the
area. Area of heavier rain is moving through Delmarva and into South
Jersey at this hour, and will slowly weaken as it moves north. Could
see a brief period of heavier rainfall, but overall not that
concerning. Not seeing any lightning either. Though it rained pretty
much all day today, only around a quarter to half an inch fell and
this area of moderate rainfall is moving quickly. Just a beneficial
rain overall.

That area of steady to heavy rain will move north as the morning
goes on, and we may get a break in the rainfall through the midday
hours. Some areas, mainly in southern Delmarva, may actually see
some areas of sunshine. This will allow some instability to build,
potentially resulting in a few thunderstorms as another shortwave
comes in. Otherwise, scattered showers will remain around through
the day, though it does not look as dreary as yesterday. Thinking
rainfall amounts will end up around a half inch to three quarters of
an inch, on top of the 0.25"-0.75" we received yesterday. Certainly
need the rainfall and thinking the only hydro issues will be poor
drainage flooding. Temperatures get into the mid to upper 60s, with
70s over Delmarva with less cloud cover and more heating.

Stays mild tonight, though only expecting some scattered light
showers. Some may stay dry though as PoPs are only 30-40% or so with
any accumulations under a tenth of an inch. Lows end up in the upper
50s/low 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A trough axis passes overhead on Thursday, which will result in
continued showers remaining across the region. Showers should be
relatively light, though with daytime heating, cannot rule out a few
scattered to isolated thunderstorms, mainly from the I-95 corridor
on west. Setup is not overly impressive is instability is meager and
the forcing is not the strongest, but would expect more of this
unsettled pattern to continue through the day until the trough
passes late Thursday. Temperatures get into the mid to upper 70s.

A brief period of quiet weather comes Thursday night as a brief
period of ridging moves overhead. Skies may actually clear out some
Thursday evening into the first half of Thursday Night before a warm
front moves in late Thursday/early Friday morning.
Mainly dry through Thursday Night though but still mild, with lows
in the upper 50s/low 60s.

A warm front lifts through Friday morning, bringing some light
showers as warm air advection ramps up. This will allow temperatures
to climb into the 80s on Friday, with more instability in place as
well. Forcing looks rather weak though with ridging not far away and
only a weak shortwave coming in and no advancing cold front until
Saturday. Thus, thinking it will be just unsettled with scattered
showers, primarily in the afternoon with a few thunderstorms mixed
in. Showers diminish in coverage with the loss of daytime heating on
Friday Night, but still cannot rule out some light sprinkles through
the night. Mild pattern continues with low to mid 60s for lows.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday looks to be the day to monitor for any severe weather.
Forcing strengthens with an incoming potent shortwave digging from
the Great Lakes. At the surface, an area of low pressure slides by
to the north Saturday into Saturday Night, with a cold front
advancing towards and eventually through the region. Temperatures
will climb into the 80s and it will feel quite muggy ahead of the
front. Instability looks to be on the order of around 1000 J/kg with
relatively favorable shear. Thinking any showers and thunderstorms
will come in the afternoon and evening as the front arrives. Main
concern would be damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours, but still
a good amount of uncertainty being a few days out. Coverage in
showers and thunderstorms diminishes into the night with the loss of
daytime heating and passage of the front.

Sunday and beyond actually looks pretty nice for now. With the front
coming through, it should result in dry conditions and seasonable
weather to close out the weekend and start next week.
Perhaps a little gusty on Sunday, but nothing that looks too
significant.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...Sites have been slow to come down and guidance has
been way too pessimistic. A slug of rainfall moving through now
should eventually bring restrictions in the variety of MVFR/IFR. ESE
winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts. Moderate confidence
overall.

Today...Primarily IFR through the day, but low confidence as some
sites could get to MVFR or even VFR if clearing moves far enough
north. Given guidance has been too pessimistic, tried to side with
the most optimistic guidance, but even that has prevailing IFR
through most of the day at most sites. Scattered showers through the
day with a 15% chance of thunder, though confidence was not high
enough to include in any TAF. Gusty east/southeast in the morning
around 10-15 kt gusting 20-25 kt will decrease by midday, down to
around 10 kt or less for the afternoon and evening. Low confidence.

Tonight...Conditions drop down to IFR or even LIFR with low clouds
and patchy fog with scattered showers moving through.
Winds out of the east/southeast around 5 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Sub-VFR with intervals of IFR likely through Thursday with showers
and a few thunderstorms. Conditions should improve a bit Friday and
Saturday during the day before showers and thunderstorms move in for
the afternoon and evening. VFR conditions look to come Saturday
Night and beyond.


&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning is in place through 10 AM as gusts near 35 kt are
possible for Delaware Bay and coastal waters south of Little Egg
Inlet. North of Little Egg Inlet, an SCA is in place through tonight.

Winds will diminish considerably by Wednesday afternoon, however
seas will remain elevated near 4-6 feet through Wednesday night.
A Small Craft Advisory will be needed for the areas following the
Gale Warning.

Outlook...

Advisory conditions with seas persisting near 5 feet on the ocean
waters until during the daytime on Thursday could result in an
extension to the SCA. Showers and spotty thunderstorms will also be
a concern on the waters through this entire period.

Sub-SCA conditions should then take hold by Thursday evening and
continue through Sunday However, showers and spotty thunderstorms
may continue to be a risk through Saturday, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Prolonged southeasterly flow and increased water runoff from the
headwaters of the Delaware River have resulted in some minor tidal
flooding, mainly for the upper tidal Delaware River around
Burlington. Cancelled the Advisory in the upper Delaware Bay and
lower Tidal Delaware River as only spotty minor tidal flooding is
expected to occur at most. For the area around Philly and
Burlington, the Coastal Flood Advisory remains in place through 6 AM.

Further extensions may be needed, especially up by Burlington, but
will see how this morning`s high tide plays out. Any extensions
would come later this morning.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     NJZ017>019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Hoeflich/Staarmann
MARINE...Hoeflich/Staarmann
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hoeflich