Middletown, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

445
FXUS61 KPHI 301440
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
940 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly slides across our area today. An area of
low pressure moves through Friday, with high pressure arriving
during Saturday. A warm front lifts northward late Sunday into
early Monday before the next cold front arrives late Monday.
High pressure returns briefly to our region Tuesday before
another low pressure begins to encroach Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast is running on track, so will not make any significant
changes to the database.

Expansive area of high pressure remains over the eastern United
States. High pressure will be in control through today,
gradually moving offshore. This will result in a tranquil day,
with mostly sunny skies for most of the day before some mid to
high level clouds move in this afternoon and evening ahead of
Friday`s system. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 40s
with mid to upper 30s in the Poconos and northern NJ.

For tonight, southwesterly flow strengthens with a nose of warm
air moving in aloft, aided by a brisk low-level jet and
strengthening warm-air advection. Isentropic ascent increases as
the night goes on with a warm front trying to move north. This
will result in precipitation overspreading the region from
southwest to northeast after midnight. For the most part,
temperatures will be above freezing, and this is not a cold air
damming setup. However, there should be just enough cold air at
the surface for a period of freezing rain, mainly north of I-78.
With an antecedent dry airmass in place, evaporative cooling
could also allow freezing temperatures to hold on through about
daybreak in these spots. Given these factors, thinking at least
measurable freezing rain is possible for the upper Lehigh
Valley, Poconos, and northern NJ. HREF Probabilities of
measurable ice is around 50-80% in these locations. As a result,
a Winter Weather Advisory was issued from 2 AM to 9 AM for
Carbon/Monroe/Lehigh/Northampton County in PA and
Sussex/Warren/Morris County in New Jersey. The Friday morning
commute could be affected in these locales.

By the late morning, temperatures will be above freezing
region-wide with periods of rain expected through the day as
the surface low tracks over or just north of the region. It will
be a dreary day overall, though we could use the rain. Rainfall
amounts will generally end up around 0.5" to 1". Highs will
surge into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will be pulling east of the area Friday night, with
rain ending slowly from northwest to southeast. Temperatures
will start falling below freezing but right now it looks like
precip should end before any transition back to wintry weather.
However, icy spots may be a concern late at night across the
Poconos, Lehigh Valley and NW NJ. Lows 20s Poconos to 30s rest
of the region except 40s southern Delaware.

Canadian high pressure builds across the region Saturday, with
sunshine returning but seasonable temps prevailing. Highs 20s
Poconos, 30s NW of I-95, 40s I-95 and points southeast.

Warm front approaches from the west Saturday night, resulting in
increasing clouds. Lows mainly in the 20s, teens near and north
of I-78.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front will lift toward the region as Sunday wears on,
crossing the region at night. This may bring a little rain or
mixed precip to the region during the day Sunday, mainly north
of Philly, but right now odds are not high on significant
precip. Highs very similar to Saturday.

With the warm front lifting north, lows Sunday night will be
considerably milder, with most of the region back into the 30s
except for the Poconos.

Monday should be quite mild as southwest winds dominate ahead of
the next cold front. Highs should soar into the 50s for most,
60s in the Delmarva and maybe parts of southern NJ. Only the
Poconos should get stuck in the 40s.

Cold front passes through dry late Monday with seasonable temps
returning for Tuesday, similar, but perhaps a smidge warmer,
than Saturday and Sunday`s expectations. Tuesday looks dry, but
the next system may be approaching by later on Wednesday with a
bit of rain or mixed precip north.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today....VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots shifting to
southwest by the late afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR for the most of the night before MVFR/IFR
conditions move in very late (between 10z-12z) with rain
showers. Winds out of the south/southwest around 5-10 kt. A
brisk 40-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet will set up, with low
level wind shear beginning between 04z-06z for the I-95 and
Lehigh Valley Terminals. Moderate confidence in timing of
restrictions.

Friday...IFR/LIFR conditions likely with periods of rain.
Southwest winds 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence overall.

Outlook...

Friday night...Sub-VFR likely with rain ending.

Saturday through Monday...VFR likely.

&&

.MARINE...
For today through tomorrow morning, no marine headlines
expected. South/southwest winds around 10-20 kt and seas 2 to 4
feet. Some rain possible on the waters late tonight through
Friday Night which could bring some lower visibility.

SCA conditions return late tomorrow morning, continuing through
Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory was issued for all ocean zones
beginning late tomorrow morning for the southern waters, and
later in the afternoon for the northern waters, continuing
through the day Saturday. Seas 3 to 6 feet and south/southwest
wind gusts around 25 kt are expected. No marine headlines are in
place for Delaware Bay, but cannot rule out an expansion to the
SCA to include these zones.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday night...No marine headlines
anticipated.

Monday...SCA conditions possible with gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for
     PAZ054-055-061-062.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for
     NJZ001-007-008.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 6 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 6 PM EST Saturday
     for ANZ451>453.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 6 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ454-455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/RCM
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich/MPS
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...Hoeflich/RCM
MARINE...Hoeflich/RCM