Torrington, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

818
FXUS61 KALY 111727
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
127 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather is expected through this afternoon under a
mostly cloudy sky. Low pressure will approach from the mid
Atlantic Coast bringing a mixture of rain and snow tonight
through Saturday morning with the greatest accumulations over
the higher terrain south and east of Albany, as below normal
temperatures continue. Fair and dry weather returns Saturday
night into Sunday with temperatures moderating to seasonable
levels to close the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 125 PM EDT, our area is generally located within two
disturbances, one to the west over western New York and another
to the south developing over the Carolinas. High pressure,
positioned across Atlantic Canada, is suppling enough dry air to
keep most areas precipitation free this afternoon. Some rain
associated with the system near the Carolinas is attempting to
advance northward into portions of the mid-Hudson Valley into
Litchfield County, CT but most of this is diminishing. Still,
some rain showers could occur in these areas later this
afternoon as the low organizes further and begins to lift to the
north and east. Temperatures this afternoon will reach the 40s
in most areas except some upper 30s across higher elevations of
the Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Medium to high chance (30-60%) of at least 2 inches of snow
  across the eastern Catskills, Berkshires, Litchfield Hills of
  CT and the southern Greens, VT late tonight through Sat.

- Winter Weather Advisories issued midnight tonight to 2 pm Sat
  for the Berkshires, and eastern Catskills of western Greene
  and Ulster Counties.

- Medium to high confidence temps moderate closer to seasonable
  levels to close the weekend.

Discussion:

Impressive mid and upper level trough continues over the east
Coast with low pressure moving from the Mid Atlantic corridor to
near the Delmarva Region by 06Z/SAT. A region of upper level
diffluence set up over NY and New England. The sfc low
strengthens near the left front quad of a mid and upper level
jet streak. Atlantic moisture is tapped ahead of the wave with
pcpn building back in from south to north gradually prior to
midnight south of I-90.The slower progression is noted on the
HREFS/3-km HRRR/NAMnest/ARW-WRF. The h850-700 FGEN increases in
the northwest quadrant of the storm especially southeast of the
Capital Region, northern Catskills and southern VT. Strong
upward vertical coupled with dynamical cooling will allow
periods of rain and snow to blossom south of the Capital Region
initially. The higher terrain will have the best chance for snow
early on, especially above 1000 ft. We were concerned about the
heavy wet snow potential highlighted in the CAMs with Snow to
Liquid Ratios (SLRs) of 6-8:1. SLRs may lower closer to 3:5-1
in the valleys. Total QPF sharply drops off further north and
west during the day with one to two tenths over the northwest
zones and as much as a half to three quarters of an inch over
the southeast extreme. Due to wet bulb cooling lows drop off
into the upper 20s to mid 30s Fri night/Sat morning.

Heavy wet snow (pcpn snow rates 0.5 to as high as 1"/hr)
continue through daybreak especially along the southern VT,
Capital District, northern Catskills corridor. The potential was
greatest for 2-6" over the eastern Catskills of western Greene
and western Ulster Counties for a Winter Wx Advisory due to the
strong forcing and east/southeast flow orographic enhancement.
1-2" may occur on the grassy surface in the mid Hudson Valley
into the Capital Region. The Berkshires (criteria is 3") looks
good for at least 2-4", and an Advisory was raised until 2 pm
with some sleet maybe mixing in. NW CT is tricky and we have
1-3" over the Litchfield Hills and 1-2" in the valley. Similar
total for the Taconics. Southern VT we were less confident for
an advisory yet, and have 2-4" with some high peak totals of 4"
or so. Some sleet or spotty freezing rain may mix in. WPC WWD
guidance removed all the ice, most the guidance shows isothermal
soundings or some sleet moving in late Sat. Overall, Advisories
in place for the eastern Catskills and Berkshires and we will
monitor for any additions later today. Location north and west
of Albany may only get a slushy coating to an inch with the
Helderbergs and the Schoharie Valley maybe getting 1-4".

The pcpn lightens in the afternoon for some light
rain/snow/sleet in the mid and upper deformation zone. As temps
warm on Sat pm, rain/snow mix will change back to rain in lower
elevations with a light rain/snow mix in the mountains with
maybe pockets of sleet. Max temps will be 10-15 degrees below
normal with 30s to around 40F over western New England and the
southern Dacks/eastern Catskills with 40-45F readings in the
valleys.

Saturday night the trend continue for the rain/snow or a brief
sleet/freezing rain to end early on. Mostly cloudy and cold
conditions continue with the coastal wave moving east of the
Gulf of Maine. Some ridging will attempt to build in from
Midwest/Great Lakes Region. Lows will range from the upper 20s
to around 30F over the mtns to lower/mid 30s in the valleys.

Low and mid level ridging builds in from the west, as a sfc
anticyclone ridges in from the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Region
over NY and New England. Temps rise close to seasonal levels
with partly/mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the mid 50s in
the lower elevations and mid 40s to lower 50s over the hills and
mtns. Fair and dry weather continues Sun night with lows in the
upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:

- Following a seasonably mild day on Monday, a frontal system
  will bring periods of rain Monday night into Tuesday, then
  breezy and cooler conditions and lingering mixed rain and
  snow showers into Wednesday.

Discussion:

Upper level ridging will start the week with a period of dry
weather and temperatures returning to near normal values (lower
50s to lower 60s). During Monday night and Tuesday, a frontal
system will cross the region. Mild temperatures will bring a
period of rain to the area mainly during Monday night. A
secondary front crosses the area on Tuesday which will bring a
breezy and cooler air mass across the region through Wednesday.
Moist, cyclonic flow amid an upper level trough will result in
lingering valley rain showers and high elevation mixed rain and
snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday. Tuesday will remain
seasonable prior to the passage of the front with highs reaching
the 50s to lower 60s except mid to upper 40s across the
Adirondacks. High temperatures fall back to the 30s and 40s on
Wednesday with lows both Tuesday and Wednesday night back in the
20s and 30s.

The trough departs Wednesday night with weak upper ridging
building into the region on Thursday with fair weather and
temperatures trending a bit milder than on Wednesday. The next
upper trough and low pressure system approaches by the end of
the week which will bring the next round of rainfall and
possible rain/snow mix for higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12 UTC/Saturday...Drizzle and light rain/snow mix
exiting the terminals early this morning with precip ending by
12 - 15 UTC. Low level moisture will remain in place through the
day so mainly expecting MVFR or low end VFR cigs the rest of the
day at all sites except POU where VFR cigs should persist.

Ceilings trend downwards tonight by and shortly after Midnight
at all terminals as an area of precipitation tracks from the
mid-Atlantic northward. Precip initially arrives as rain at POU
by 03 - 05 UTC but as it intensifies, temperatures cool enough
to support a transition to wet snow by 08 - 11 UTC with snow
turning steady/moderate resulting in IFR cigs/vis. The
precipitation shield advances northward reaching PSF by 05 - 08
UTC as snow while it arrives as rain at ALB by 08 - 11 UTC
briefly before precip turns steady enough to transition to wet
snow. As snow becomes moderate in the 09 - 12 UTC period, IFR
vis and cigs are likely. GFL looks to remain mainly north of the
precipitation shield through the end of the TAF period but
should still see cigs trend to MVFR.

East to southeast winds range 5-9kts with gusts up to 15kts
through 00 UTC tonight. Then, winds shift to the northeast
tonight especially at PSF and POU and remain sustained 5-9kts
with gusts up to 18kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ058-063.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Speciale