Newington, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

012
FXUS61 KBOX 071112
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
712 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms with
pockets of heavy rainfall later today and especially this afternoon.
Dry weather returns tonight and continues into Sunday with pleasant
temperatures. A few showers are possible on Monday, but the bulk of
the rain with the next system will hold off until Tuesday. Dry and
warmer weather follows for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages...

* Areas of fog this morning especially near the south coast
* Showers/isolated t-storms with pockets of heavy rain today
* Bulk of the rain overspreads the region between 11 am and 3 pm
* Highs mainly in the 70s with some upper 60s on the immediate coast

Details...

Dry weather dominated very early this morning but areas of fog were
expanding across the region. Some of the fog may be locally dense
especially near the south coast. We do expect visibility to improve
in most locations later this morning and afternoon...but fog may
flirt with areas near the coast all day.

A slow moving cold front approaches from the west later today and
will combine with Pwats over 1.50" along with good forcing on the
boundary. The result will be band of widespread showers with
isolated t-storms that moves across the region from west to east.
Outside a few showers into mid morning...the bulk of the rain will
arrive from west to east in the 11 am to 3 pm time frame. Given the
amount of forcing and high Pwat values some of the showers will
contain heavy rainfall. This may result in typical nuisance street
flooding...but the environment is not as favorable for the localized
flash flooding that we saw yesterday. The instability will be
less...generally on the order of 400-800 J/KG. Therefore...we will
not be issuing a Flood Watch at this time...but it is something
later shifts may need to consider based on radar trends.
Regardless...pocket of heavy rainfall and brief poor drainage street
flooding are certainly possible. The severe weather threat is also
rather low today...given limited instability and lots of cloud cover.

Clouds and showers will keep high temperatures mainly in the 70s
today...but locations along the coast may only see highs in the
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Any lingering showers depart this evening
* Otherwise, dry with some fog tonight...lows 55-60
* Partly sunny with highs in the 70 to near 80 on Sunday

Details...

Tonight...

Shortwave and associated cold front will exit the region this
evening...taking any lingering showers with it. Otherwise...dry and
pleasant tonight and a bit cooler too with lows mainly in the 55-60
degree range. Light winds coupled with leftover low level moisture
will likely result in areas of fog developing overnight.

Sunday...

A brief ridge of high pressure builds into the region. This will
result in a mixture of clouds and sunshine and a pleasant end to the
weekend. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 75 to 80 degree
range...but cooler lower 70s on the immediate coast with onshore
flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Scattered showers and cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday

* Clearing Wednesday into Thursday with highs reaching the low to
  mid 80s

Details...

Onshore flow continues through Monday, allowing for a lengthier
period of cooling and for high temps to remain in the mid 60s to low
70s across southern New England. Most guidance is indicating a low
moving northeast off the coast to our south on Monday, bringing some
scattered showers to the region Monday. Still quite uncertain on the
exact track of the low... the ECMWF and NAM are indicating a closer
pass to the Cape and Islands, which would bring more rain to
southern New England, while the GEM and GFS are favoring more of an
offshore solution, which would keep most of the rain over the
waters.

A warm front is expected to move through Tuesday, placing the region
in the warm sector and elevating surface moisture, once again
bringing rain chances. With rain looking possible for most of the
day, highs are likely to remain in the 70s. A cold front passes
through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, shifting winds back to the
west and ushering in some drier air. Drier and clearer conditions
likely Wednesday heading into Thursday post-FROPA. With the clearing
skies, high temps look to rebound into the 80s for the second half
of the week. Lows through the extended period not expected to change
much from night to night, remaining mostly in the 50s and 60s across
southern New England.

Unsettled conditions return heading into the weekend, bringing more
chances for showers.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...

Today...Moderate confidence.

Generally expect MVFR-IFR conditions to dominate today with some
localized LIFR conditions possible...especially this morning near
the south coast where some dense fog is expected. We do expect the
bulk of the showers to overspread the region in the 15z to 19z time
frame from west to east. These showers may contain pockets of heavy
rainfall along with isolated thunderstorms. Light S winds will shift
to the N this afternoon with sea breezes along the coast.

Tonight...Low confidence.

Variable conditions expected tonight. We do expect some VFR
conditions to work into western MA/northern CT...but leftover low
level moisture may allow areas of fog to develop and allow MVFR-IFR
conditions to return. MVFR-IFR conditions with localized LIFR
conditions probably dominate east of the CT River with low clouds
and areas of fog persisting.

Sunday...High confidence in trends but lower confidence in timing.

Lingering MVFR-IFR conditions will improve to VFR from west to east
through lunchtime...but may take a tad longer across the Cape and
Islands. E winds generally at 5 to 10 knots.

BOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Bulk of the showers likely
occur after 16z/17z where a brief rumble or two of thunder is
possible until 22z-23z.

BDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Bulk of the showers likely
occur after 14z/15z where a brief rumble or two of thunder is
possible until 20z/21z.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, isolated
TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Sunday...High confidence.

A relatively weak pressure gradient will keep winds below small
craft advisory thresholds today through Sunday. However....a wave of
low pressure and its associated southerly swell will be enough to
generate 4 to 5 foot southerly swell later today into tonight across
our southern outer-waters. Therefore...we have hoisted a small craft
advisory for those waters later today into tonight but conditions
should drop back below criteria for Sunday. The biggest issue for
mariners will be areas of fog...some of which will be locally dense
especially over our southern waters during the overnight and morning
hours.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/McMinn
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...McMinn
AVIATION...Frank/McMinn
MARINE...Frank/McMinn