Security-Widefield, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

160
FXUS65 KPUB 111006
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
406 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry with increasing winds and critical
  fire weather conditions expected over the weekend.

- A cold front will bring cooler temperatures and a slight
  chance of showers Sunday night and Monday.

- Warmer weather returns for next week with isolated showers
  over and near the mountains each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Upper ridging today will bring warmer temperatures and dry
weather to the region with high temperatures around 10 degrees
warmer than yesterday across eastern areas. Western areas will
see readings around 2 to 4 degrees warmer. Afternoon humidity
values will drop below 15% but winds will remain relatively
light beneath the upper high, so no critical fire weather
conditions are expected. However we could see some afternoon
breezes up to 20 mph at times.

Flow aloft increases tonight which will deepen the lee trough
and enhance westerly downslope winds along the lower eastern
slopes of the southeast mountains and adjacent plains. This
will keep temperatures overnight rather mild for most of the
southeast plains (40s to low 50s). Mountains and valleys will
drop into the 20s and 30s for overnight lows. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Southwest flow aloft continues to increase on Saturday as the
next upper trough moves through the Pacific northwest and into
the northern U.S. Rockies. The surface lee trough kicks eastward
in response, allowing dry gusty southwest winds to mix to the
surface across most of southern CO. Humidity values will drop
below critically low thresholds and combined with dry fuels
will lead to a critical fire weather day across most of southern
CO. Fuels are in various states of drying out and/or greening
up for Spring which leads to a hodgepodge pattern of Fire
Weather Watches. Although confidence is high that all areas with
critical fuels will need Red Flag Warnings for Saturday, have
maintained the Fire Weather Watches for now as fuels status may
still change over the next 24 hours. But do expect fairly
widespread Red Flag Warnings to be needed for Saturday. Record
breaking high temperatures are likely on Saturday as well as
highs peak in the mid 80s to lower 90s across the plains with
70s to near 80 for the valleys, and 50s and 60s for the
mountains.

Models have come into better agreement on a more northern track
to the upper low on Sunday, though still differ with the timing
of a cold front dropping through the southeast plains. Poor
overnight humidity recovery is expected along the lower eastern
slopes of the southeast mountains into the I-25 corridor as
enhanced westerly winds continue Sat night. Could see some
gusts up to 50 mph overnight in and near the mountains, though
forward shear aloft should keep gusts below high wind criteria.
Mixing will occur early on Sunday as the system passes to the
north with an earlier start to critical fire weather conditions
expected for the mountains, valleys and southern I-25 corridor.
Depending on the timing of the cold front, we could see
critical fire weather conditions return as far north as the
Pikes Peak region and a tier of counties eastward. Confidence is
low on this as most of the 00z runs bring the front into at
least portions of the southeast plains by mid day Sunday with
some minor humidity recovery behind it. Have issued another Fire
Weather Watch for the San Luis Valley, the Sangres and Wet
Mountains and the southern I-25 corridor for Sunday where
confidence is greatest. Otherwise, it will be slightly cooler
Sunday though still well above seasonal normals.

Showers will be possible Sunday night and Monday as the cold
front banks up against the southeast mountains bringing some
modest moisture return. Most of these showers will be diurnally
driven with afternoon heating/instability, but moisture quality
is poor and any precipitation looks spotty and light and not
likely to bring much of wetting precipitation to the area. The
next wave in gets picked up off the southern Pacific through the
Desert SW and across CO Tues/Wed. This will bring increasing
showers to the mountains though any precipitation should remain
fairly light. Temperatures rebound back into the 70s and 80s
across the lower elevations by mid week with 50s and 60s for the
mountain communities. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites with diurnally driven
winds under 15 kts over the next 24 hours. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for COZ220-221-223>231.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ224-225-229-230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...KT