Louisville, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

125
FXUS65 KBOU 071737
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1137 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today with no showers/thunderstorms.

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms Sunday into next week with
  a warming trend and above normal temperatures Tuesday through
  the rest of the week.

- Watching potential for 90 degree temperatures next weekend and
  beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Shortwave trough will continue to trigger numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the area. There`s ample shear and moisture to
support strong to severe thunderstorms. The biggest question mark
is instability. Morning showers and cloud cover has kept northern
parts of the Front Range and the plains east of them cool with
noon temperatures only in the 50s. Best chance for severe
thunderstorms will be where it warmed into the upper 60s to lower
70s. Looking at satellite and observations, this roughly just east
of the Denver area and south of I-70. Primary threat will be
large hail, up to 2 inches in diameter, at first. As storms
increase, a cluster or two could produce damaging winds to 70 mph.
An isolated tornado is possible, mainly along a boundary across
Douglas, Elbert, and Lincoln counties. Showers and storms are
expected to be east of the Denver area by 8PM and east of the
forecast area by midnight. Skies clear overnight which could lead
to patchy fog in low lying areas.

Drier subsident northwest flow aloft will prevail over the area
Saturday. Other than patchy morning fog in the South Platte River
Valley north of Denver, skies will be mostly sunny to start the
day. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower to mid
80s across northeast Colorado. High-based cumulus clouds are
expected to form during the afternoon hours and could produce a
few isolated dry microbursts with winds to 30 mph.

A weak push from the north Saturday night will help to increase
low level moisture over northeast Colorado and bring cooler
temperatures for Sunday. Highs for Sunday look to reach the lower
to mid 70s across northeast Colorado. The increase in moisture
will also help fuel isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

For Monday, an upper level ridge will reside over the Great Basin
with weak north-northwest flow aloft over Colorado. This ridge
slides over the Central Rockies Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly
warm up Monday and Tuesday with highs reaching the lower to mid
80s Tuesday. The latest model trends keep most/all of the showers
and thunderstorms over the central and southwest Colorado
mountains. With ridging overhead and weak flow aloft, little to no
forcing is expected. This seems reasonable, and will be lowering
PoPs and keeping the low PoPs confined to over/near the higher
terrain.

For Wednesday through Friday, the upper level ridge shifts east
of the region and is replaced with a west-southwest flow aloft.
We`ll likely see a return to isolated/scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms under this pattern, most
numerous over the higher terrain. Temperatures will be near normal
to slightly above with highs reaching the 80s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR through today and overnight. WNW winds should prevail midday
into the evening hours. The strongest gusts are likely to exceed
20 kts between 21-23Z. We do not expect any convection anywhere
near the terminals and thus there won`t be any hard to predict
wind shifts. Tonight normal drainage wind patterns 10 kts or less
after 03Z through 08Z.

Sunday morning around 08Z (maybe as late as 09Z) a cool front
moves across the terminals with a shift to North-Northeast winds,
worst case gusting to 20 kts. MVFR CIGs follow and should be over
all the terminals by 12Z (025-030). The stratus should break up
by 18Z or so. Expect generally east winds 10-14 kts Sunday
afternoon and a 30% chance of thunderstorms after 21Z. The gust
fronts/wind shifts shouldn`t gust more than 30 kts and overall
storm coverage will be isolated, thus PROB30 is appropriate for
TAFs for now.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Schlatter