Lafayette, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

191
FXUS65 KBOU 111718
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1118 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions Saturday.

- Near record high temperatures on Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures early next week, with scattered light
  showers Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Mostly rain at lower
  elevations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

The forecast remains on track this morning for a mild and dry day.
Winds should stay below thresholds for any fire weather
highlights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Upper level ridging slides eastward and will be over the Central
Rockies today. This will usher in warmer air with 700mb
temperatures warming 4-6C today, leading to highs 7-12F degrees
warmer today and temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s
across northeast Colorado. Surface low pressure trough will begin
to deepen along the Front Range. This will bring some gusty
southerly winds to 25 mph this evening to the eastern plains.
However, light winds (less than 15 mph) are expected across much
of the area today due to the weak pressure gradient in place.
Overnight lows will be mild due to the warm airmass with lows
mainly in the 40s across northeast Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

On Saturday, the upper level ridge over our area will shift east and
flatten ahead of a shortwave trough, which will allow increasing
westerly flow aloft. With cross barrier flow of 30-40 kts, the
mountains could see 40-50 mph wind gusts throughout the day. In
addition, the foothills and adjacent plains likely could see
westerly downslope wind gusts up to 35 mph. A surface lee trough
should develop during the day, which most likely will keep the
strongest winds closer to the foothills and keep the eastern plains
breezy. In terms of temperatures, most of the plains could see mid-
high 80s, with Denver possibly tying or breaking the record high
temperature of 85 degrees set in 2023.

Sunday will be another windy day across the region as an upper level
trough will traverse Wyoming. Cross barrier flow will allow 30-40
mph wind gusts in the mountains with southern Front Range mountains
and South Park seeing gusts up to 50 mph. Light snow showers are
possible in the afternoon, mainly in Park Range and northern Front
Range mountains. For the plains, guidance has continued to trend
towards a faster moving system, with higher resolution models now
indicating a cold front pushing through early Sunday morning. Strong
northerly wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected behind the front with
scattered rain showers in the evening and overnight. Some ensemble
solutions still indicate that temperatures could get cold enough for
a rain/snow mix with minimal accumulation on the ground. If that
verifies, little if any travel impacts are expected. For
temperatures, with the earlier timing of the cold front temperatures
should only get up to the low-mid 60s. However, if the front arrives
later in the day, temperatures would be warmer than forecasted.

Monday should be cooler, with temperatures in the mid-high 50s and a
small chance (20%) of lingering snow showers in the southern Front
Range in the morning. After that, ensemble guidance has indicated
an upper level ridge building ahead of the next system. However,
there is some disagreement between models, as the GEFS hints at a
weak shortwave passing through Colorado sometime Tuesday night/
Wednesday morning, but the EPS keeps a ridge building over the
Rockies. If a shortwave develops, light snow showers in the
mountains are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/...
Issued at 529 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR to prevail today and tonight with few to scattered high
clouds at times. Typical south-southwest drainage winds to prevail
through mid to late morning (15-17Z) at APA and DEN. Generally
light southeast winds to prevail Friday afternoon with speeds
less than 10 knots. After 01Z Saturday, stronger southerly winds
develop with gusts up to 25 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
along the east slopes of the Front Range and adjacent plains on
Saturday. Temperatures 20+ degrees above normal are possible, with a
dry air mass allowing humidity values to drop to around 10% with 40
mph wind gusts across the high country and gusts up to 30 mph on the
plains. Even though the eastern plains should also be very dry,
winds are not expected to meet critical thresholds and thus are not
included in the Fire Weather Watch.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible for South
Park on Sunday. With a cold front pushing in Sunday morning,
relative humidity values are expected to be above 20% across the
northern and central plains and around 15% across South Park.
There could be gusts up to 50 mph across the mountains and 35 mph
on the plains. &&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for COZ214>216-238>244-246-247.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for COZ214>216-238>244-246-247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Danielson
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Ideker
AVIATION...Meier
FIRE WEATHER...Ideker