Greeley, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

534
FXUS65 KBOU 251155
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
555 AM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today with light rain showers/drizzle.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday and Monday
  afternoons, but fuels are turning green.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
Issued at 354 AM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

The nighttime microphysics satellite shows widespread low clouds
and fog everywhere east of the Continental Divide in our forecast
area. Most areas are seeing drizzle but a few showers are also
being picked up on radar. With an inversion over this cool and
moist boundary layer, most of the area seeing these low clouds
will continue to see them all day long. However, parts of the
southern foothills and the Denver metro may see enough of the
southerly winds just above the inversion mix down and clear out
some of the clouds. If this does occur, temperatures in those
locations could reach close to 60 F. Having said that, the cool
air and low clouds will be rather persistent and there are plenty
of events where the mixing down of warmer temperatures does not
occur. The forecast was put in the middle of the solutions and
generally in line with the ECMWF MOS with a high in the mid 50s
in Denver and around 50 elsewhere across the plains.

As a shortwave trough approaches from the west, some showers and
weak storms may form today primarily over the northern foothills.
Due to the relatively stable conditions across the plains, no storms
will be severe.

Tonight, low clouds will be persistent over the Palmer Divide and
eastern plains to the east of DIA. Southerly downslope winds may
clear the urban corridor of low clouds by the morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Issued at 354 AM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Warmer and drier air aloft will be moving in Saturday morning, but
southeast low level winds could help hold in low clouds over the
northeast corner through midday, and keep it cooler in that area.
For places further west, it will warm nicely with temperatures
reaching into the 70s over the western part of the plains. There
will probably be some convective clouds over the mountains, but
with the drying precipitation should be limited, and we trimmed
the PoPs back to isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
over the Front Range late in the day.

Drying continues Saturday night into Sunday, which should be the
warmest day. Southerly surface winds, and southwest aloft, will
increase, and we could see 30-40 mph gusts Sunday afternoon. This
would be a fire weather day, with critical conditions likely on
the plains south of I-70 and in the mountain valleys, but fuels
have greened sufficiently across most of the area to limit the
fire danger. The exception is the northern border and northeast
corner, but humidities will likely be a bit higher there. We`ll
have some instability but in a pretty dry airmass, so we lowered
PoPs again on Sunday.

Winds will go west and then northwest as a trough passes Sunday
night into Monday. We`ll lose 10 to 20 degrees and have strong
winds from the other direction on Monday. There will also be
increased moisture and a little destabilization, so our PoPs will
bump up again. Tuesday we`re in between systems in a cool and
still moist airmass. PoPs will be a bit lower, but there could
still be some diurnal convection.

Models start to diverge significantly from Wednesday onward.
There`s a trough dropping through the plains that should bring
increased shower/storm activity sometime Wednesday/Wednesday night
along with some cooling. But handling of the ridging behind that
system, a possible second wave dropping down the east side, and
energy coming under the developing ridge over the west, all varies
a lot in the models. The last couple model cycles have been
trending away from troughing over Colorado late in the week, with
increased ridging over the northwest. Some of these solutions
would have a definite warming/drying trend as opposed to what it
looked like a couple of days ago, some of them have less change
over us and would still have cool temperatures with at least a low
level of shower activity. NBM PoPs may be a bit high if the
latest trends hold up.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/...
Issued at 527 AM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Some light drizzle is being reported at all terminals and this may
have been the reason there is no longer fog at any terminals. The
water droplets are dig enough to fall as drizzle so visibility
will generally stay above 2 SM at all terminals although there
could be brief drops below that. Ceilings seem to be holding
steady around 300-500 feet and this will continue until around
16Z. Ceilings will then rise from LIFR to IFR and will rise again
around 18Z when southeast winds develop. Models are not in good
agreement with what will happen this afternoon. Ceilings may stay
around 3-5 kft if winds end up being more easterly than southerly.
However, ceilings may break completely if southerly winds reach
APA and DEN. BJC will have a better chance of MVFR ceilings
staying for the entire day.

Tonight, southerly winds may bring in low clouds and mist at all
terminals. However, it is possible the downslope winds result in
no ceilings or mist at all terminals for the majority of the
night. A cyclone may begin to wrap up towards sunrise and fog or
low clouds may develop at BJC and DEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...Danielson