Four Square Mile, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

558
FXUS65 KBOU 130041
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
641 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures today and Tuesday, with the
  potential for some areas to reach 90 degrees over the plains.

- Increasing chances for elevated/critical fire weather conditions
  through mid-week.

- Pattern change on Wednesday bringing cooler temps, increasing
  winds, and moisture mainly for the high country and northern
  portion of the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

Current satellite imagery shows some cumulus have formed over the
foothills and eastern plains this afternoon. Moisture is sparse
across the majority of the forecast area, with some heightened
moisture in place over the far eastern plains where the cumulus
reside. There is enough instability in place coinciding with the
aforementioned moisture to allow for an isolated shower or weak
storm to form, mainly for Lincoln and Washington Counties through
the afternoon. With the dry lower levels in place, there is a
small chance that we see a dry microburst or two under these
showers, with gusts between 35-45 mph possible.

The forecast remains largely unchanged from yesterday`s. Tomorrow
is still expected to be another warm and dry day ahead of
Wednesday`s pattern shift due to the approaching trough that has
officially pushed ashore the Pacific Northwest today. There will
be increased fire weather concerns for the next few days as winds
begin to increase, especially over the mountain valleys on
Tuesday. However, with our recent fuel status update showing all
zones to be under critical thresholds, no highlights are expected
at this time. With a tightening pressure gradient expected as well
as increased southwesterly flow aloft on Wednesday, winds are
expected to increase further, bringing fire weather concerns to
portions of the plains. We will monitor fuels through tomorrow`s
warm and dry conditions to determine if any highlights will be
needed for Wednesday.

As the trough passes over the Rockies on Wednesday, an associated
cold front at the surface is progged to slide south across the
forecast area Wednesday afternoon/evening. Depending on exact
timing, there could be some slight impacts on the afternoon high
temperatures, but either way, temperatures are expected to see
about a 10 degree cool down from Tuesday. We will see increasing
PoPs from Wednesday afternoon into the evening, with a chance for
some showers and thunderstorms as the trough axis passes and the
front drops south.

Temperatures will moderate towards normal through the weekend
behind the front. A shortwave looks to pass through on the back
side of the passing trough on Thursday that will bring a chance
for afternoon showers and storms to the mountains and adjacent
plains. The more active pattern looks to continue for the second
half of the week with Sunday looking like the best potential for
widespread precipitation across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 630 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR through the TAF period. Winds will generally be drainage
tonight. During the day tomorrow, wind direction will be difficult
to forecast and the winds will likely end up being quite variable.
No showers or thunderstorms are expected.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bonner
AVIATION...Danielson