Fountain, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

426
FXUS65 KPUB 192320
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
520 PM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Fire Danger for Friday and Saturday with Red Flag
  Warnings posted both days for the southwest and central
  mountains where fuels are critical.

- Hot, dry and breezy across the plains with Heat Advisories
  expanded to include the lower Arkansas River Valley for
  Saturday.

- Continued hot for Sunday though slightly cooler for the
  plains. Another critical fire weather day likely for the
  southwest and central mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Low level moisture has been mixing out across the area with dew
points falling off into the 20s and 30s across the mountains and
adjacent plains. Dew points to the south and east of a line
from KTAD to KLAA are still running in the 50s. Thunderstorms
have been developing along this axis this afternoon producing
some small hail down around Trinidad where some CAPE up to 1500
J/kg may be hugging the Raton Ridge. Otherwise, elevated CAPE
thinning will be thinning out with time, and gusty outflow
winds nearing severe criteria look plausible into the evening as
storms continue to percolate and move off to the east.
Downdraft CAPE off SPC Meso Analysis shows up to 2000 J/kg which
would support localized gusts up to 60 mph. Thunderstorms
should diminish quickly after sunset.

Otherwise, winds will start to increase tonight and especially
into Friday as southwest flow aloft increases ahead of the
incoming Pacific Low. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected across the mountains and adjacent plains, though fuels
are only reported critical across the southwest and central
mountains. Red Flag Warnings area already posted for these area
for Friday, which still looks on target. Across the southeast
plains, downslope flow and H7 temperatures warming to around
+20C will support highs above 100 degrees across much of the
lower Arkansas River Valley and points northward. Have expanded
Heat Advisories eastward across the plains accordingly where
temperatures above the critical threshold of 105 are most likely
to occur (40-70% probabilities according to NBM). Otherwise,
moisture axis aloft will continue to lay up across extreme southern
portions of the area, and another round of high based
thunderstorms will be possible extending from the southern
Sangre De Cristo mountains through Las Animas and Baca counties.
Afternoon cloud development may help to hold temperatures down
a few degrees so will not include the southern zones of the
southeast plains in the Heat Advisories. Gusty outflow winds
and lightning will be the primary concerns once again.
-KT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

An upper-level low will push onshore over the Pacific Northwest as
we move into the weekend, causing breezy southwest flow to settle in
over our area. Downsloping and enhanced heating will continue our
trend of warm temperatures, with Saturday`s highs in the 90s to low-
100s over the plains, and 80s over the high valleys. Will have to
monitor incoming trends in cloud cover and moisture in the area to
determine the need for another Heat highlight, but have held off for
now due to low confidence and slightly lower temperatures.
Meanwhile, another day of critical fire weather conditions is
expected, with a Red Flag Warning in effect for our western
mountains, where fuels are driest. Otherwise, our CWA will
remain generally dry and breezy through the rest of the day.

The upper trough deepens a bit on Sunday, advecting a bit more
potential moisture into the region as southwest winds increase.
Temperatures will level out a bit, just a few degrees shy of
Saturday, with gusty surface winds. Meanwhile, models do hint at a
slight uptick in precipitation chances, particularly over the far
southeast plains. Southerly winds could bring up enough Gulf
moisture for something of a dryline setup, though it is still
unclear if we`ll get enough moisture for any strong to severe
storms. As of now, a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible in
the late afternoon to early evening hours.

A front is expected to pass over the plains on Monday, as a piece of
energy from the trough ejects far to our north. Temperatures will be
knocked down to near-seasonal levels, typically in the 80s over most
of the lower areas, and moisture will be more abundant. This may
serve to decrease critical fire weather chances, but will certainly
increase the potential for more afternoon showers and thunderstorms
each day through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Expect south to
southwest winds to increase through mid morning, with gusts
approaching 35 to 40 kts during the afternoon.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. LLWS
is possible tonight at KCOS, with easterly surface winds and
westerly flow off the deck. Winds will increase at both KCOS and
KPUB Friday afternoon, with gusts in excess of 30 kts likely.
Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Friday for COZ220-223.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for COZ220-
223.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for COZ083>086-089-
093-095>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOZLEY