Denver, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

377
FXUS65 KBOU 070512
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1012 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer Friday over the urban corridor and plains.

- Snow will move across the mountains Friday night, likely
  producing slippery roads Saturday morning.

- Another round of mountain snow Saturday night/Sunday. Some of
  this snow may spread east onto the plains.

- Another shot of cold will affect the plains early next week
  along with a good chance of light snow Monday night into
  Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2025

Relatively quiet conditions across the region this evening. No
significant changes were made the grids tonight as things were
largely on track. Will let the night shift decide if warmer temps
are needed for the metro tomorrow afternoon, as some early
guidance tonight has highs in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
Issued at 240 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2025

Mostly clear skies will continue into the evening hours. Mid
level moisture begins increase late tonight in advance of the next
shortwave trough. There looks to be enough moisture to bring
isolated snow showers to the northern mountain late tonight and
into Friday. Snowfall amounts will be light with any accumulation
through Friday afternoon being less than 2 inches.

A lee-side trough deepens through the day Friday at the base of
the foothills ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. East of
the surface trough across the eastern plains, south to southwest
winds are expected to prevail which should lead to the development
of a Denver Cyclone. The HRRR and most of the HiRes models show
gusty west winds mixing down and spreading east across the plains.
With the lee-side trough at the base of the foothills, neutral to
slight warm air advection, and the expected formation of the
Denver Cyclone, do not expect widespread gusty west winds across
the plains. Still could end up with scattered areas of gusty winds
mixing down. Where better mixing occurs (mountains and
foothills), wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be possible.
Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 50s across northeast
Colorado. Lower to mid 60s will be possible where the stronger
westerly downslope winds occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 240 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2025

Looks like a fairly active extended period, with multiple chances
for mountain snow, and even some light snow pushing east onto the
plains as persistent westerly flow aloft remains in place through
early next week.

Things will kick off Friday night as increasing westerly flow aloft
is expected as a 250mb level 150-170kt jet max slides east and over
northern Colorado. At 500mb, a shortwave embedded in the flow will
pass over the Rockies, and a surface cold front will push across the
forecast area from north to south. QG fields show persistent upwards
ascent and fairly strong frontogenesis through early Saturday
morning. Cross sections show increasing moisture from west to east,
stretching from the surface, topping 500mb over the high country
overnight. Ingredients will be in place to support orographic
snowfall for the northern and central mountains with additional
support from the QG forcings. Snow is expected to start in the
northern mountains Friday evening before pushing south to the I-70
mountain corridor by midnight. We expect some slick travel
conditions for the evening commute in areas across the northern
mountains such as Rabbit Ears Pass, and with winds gusting to 60 mph
across our higher elevations, blowing snow may reduce visibilities
to as low as a 1/4 mile at times; therefore we have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory beginning at 5PM Friday night through 7AM Saturday
morning for western Jackson and Grand Counties where 6 to 12 inches
of snow are expected, with some locally heavier amounts possible.
With the heaviest snowfall expected between midnight and 5AM, there
may be some lingering impacts to Saturday morning`s ski traffic
along the I-70 mountain corridor and US-40 over Berthoud Pass. As of
now, it`s looking like highlights won`t be needed for these
locations, but will continue to assess as new guidance comes out.

Cross sections show drier air moves in for the day on Saturday, and
cooler temperatures will be in place behind the aforementioned cold
front. High temperatures across the eastern plains are expected to
remain in the 30s, with downslope winds keeping milder temperatures
hugging the base of the foothills and adjacent plains. Light snow
showers will be possible throughout the day in the mountains.
Another disturbance in the westerly flow aloft is expected to pass
across the Rockies Saturday night. At the surface, easterly flow
will develop that will bring a period of upslope conditions to the
eastern slopes of the Front Range Mountains, that will bring a
chance of light snow to the lower foothills and adjacent plains.

The active pattern continues into next week with the best shot at
accumulating snowfall for the lower elevations being Monday night
into Tuesday as flow aloft transitions to a more WSW regime ahead of
an approaching trough and another cold front dips down into
Colorado, bringing a return of upslope flow for the Front Range.
While details are still getting ironed out with exactly how this
system will play out, ensembles seem to agree that moisture will
make it to the lower elevations, but just how much is still unknown.
The NBM PoPs seemed reasonable at this point, so let those ride from
Monday onward. Below normal temperatures are expected through the
extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1010 PM MST Thu Feb 6 2025

Drainage winds will develop in the next hour or two an continue
thru 17z on Fri. After 17z winds will become SW with gusts up
to 25 mph possible thru the aftn. Otherwise VFR conditions thru
the period.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 7 AM MST Saturday
for COZ031.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hiris
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Bonner
AVIATION...RPK