Winchester, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

100
FXUS66 KSGX 241030
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
230 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread low clouds will continue to bring light rain, drizzle
and fog to areas from the coast to the mountain slopes into the
early afternoon. The rain will taper off this afternoon but the
clouds will hang around through tonight. High temperatures today
will be near or a few degrees below seasonal averages. Chances for
precipitation will return for Monday through Wednesday. Gusty
west winds will continue through this afternoon in the mountains
and deserts, weaken on Monday then return for Tuesday into
Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected for the Thanksgiving
holiday and into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

This morning...Widespread low clouds with a moist layer about
10,000 ft deep will continue to bring rain and drizzle to areas
from the coast to the mtn slopes into this afternoon. The rainfall
will taper off this afternoon. So far, rainfall totals range from
about one hundredth of an inch in the coastal areas of south San
Diego County to about one half inch on the slopes of the San
Bernardino Mountains. It will also bring fog to higher
terrain. Onshore flow will continue to bring westerly
winds gusting 35 to 40 mph in the mtn passes, canyons and on
adjacent desert slopes into this afternoon before tapering off
this evening.

The closed upper low now off the coast of Vancouver will begin
moving inland on Monday, becoming an open wave on Wednesday as it
crosses the Cascades into the northern Inter Mountain West. For
SoCal, this will bring another surge of moisture and stronger
onshore flow. The consensus of solutions across the ensemble
model platforms indicates chances for additional rain from Monday
through Wednesday. Outcomes will be similar to the current event,
with variable rainfall amounts favoring the coastal mountain
slopes and gusty west winds in the mtns and deserts. While models
are in good agreement through Wednesday with respect to the
synoptic pattern, the details are still uncertain. Current
rainfall estimates are for a few hundredths of an inch in the
coastal areas to about one half inch on the slopes of the San
Bernardino Mountains. Stronger onshore flow will again bring
westerly winds gusting 35-40 mph in the mtns and deserts for
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Daytime temperatures will remain near or a little below seasonal
averages through Wednesday.

For Thursday through next Sunday...Generally fair weather will
return for the Thanksgiving holiday into next weekend, with
variable high clouds and some low clouds in the coastal areas and
valleys during the nights and mornings. A weak ridge of high
pressure will build over the region and bring a warming trend
which will give us daytime temperatures mostly a few degrees above
seasonal averages for Thursday into the weekend. A few ensemble
members are indicating the potential for more precipitation on
Friday and Saturday but they are a small minority and the synoptic
pattern will not be favorable for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
241030Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN/OVC clouds with variable bases 300-
1500 ft MSL will continue through 15Z, then gradually lift and
become SCT/BKN 15Z-18Z. Areas of terrain obscurations will occur
through 17Z. Areas of -SHRA/BR with VIS 2-4 miles will gradually
diminish through 15Z. SCT-BKN clouds above 10000 ft MSL will prevail
after 18Z, continuing through Mon morning with mostly unrestricted
VIS.

Mountains...Areas of terrain obscurations will continue through 17Z
due to clouds/FG/-SHRA, especially on the coastal slopes, with cloud
tops mostly to around 10000 ft MSL. Local west surface gusts 25-40
kt will occur over mountain crests/desert slopes through 17Z,
decreasing to 20-30 kt and continuing through Mon morning.

Deserts...Occasional SCT-BKN clouds above 10000 ft MSL will occur
through Mon morning with unrestricted VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...Maxwell