Spreckels, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

360
FXUS66 KMTR 291806
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
Issued by National Weather Service Eureka CA
1106 AM PDT Tue Apr 29 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Nice weather is in store this week with plenty of sunshine and
temperatures slightly above normal. A pattern change over the
weekend will bring overcast skies, cooler temperatures, strong
wind and light rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Tue Apr 29 2025

The marine layer is reorganizing with a robust stratus deck
offshore. The inland extent is limited mostly to the coast as high
pressure keeps the layer of cool-moist air relatively shallow. A
SW-NE oriented ridge will dominate the pattern today, allowing
fair weather. Max temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s for
inland areas, with low 60s along the coast. A plume of upper
level moisture will move in this evening, which will likely bring
some high clouds and could make for a fantastic sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1202 AM PDT Tue Apr 29 2025

The ridge will begin to weaken Wednesday as a short wave trough
moves through. The models have been consistent with the existence
of this feature, however the timing has shifted from Thursday to
Wednesday over the last 24 hours. It now looks like the ridge
will start to reorganize on Thursday before a more robust long
wave trough approaches on Friday. This trough will likely spawn a
cut-off low on Saturday that will move into Southern California
by Sunday. This shifting pattern will bring fairly consistent warm
and dry weather through the work-week with cooler, wetter
conditions expected this weekend. The trough will support a
surface cold front that will move through late Friday or very
early Saturday. High PWAT anomalies ahead of the front will
likely support some light, beneficial rain Friday night through
Saturday morning, with some lingering post-frontal showers
possible Saturday afternoon. While the rain could be widespread in
areal coverage, the front should be moving pretty fast and
there`s only a 25% chance of exceeding 0.1" outside of the coastal
mountains. Temperatures will also drop well below normal as
overcast skies and a colder air mass move in. Perhaps the most
impactful hazard is strong NW winds. The NBM ensemble mean, which
typically has a low bias for these type of events, is showing
30-35 mph wind gusts on Friday, 35-45 mph on Saturday, and 30-40
mph on Sunday. The ECMWF ensemble is still the most aggressive
model, with high confidence that SFO will see gusts above 40 mph
on Saturday, although Friday and Sunday don`t look nearly as bad
in this ensemble. The confidence will increase over the next few
days as higher resolution models start to resolve the event. As it
stands, there is a decent chance for a wind advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 AM PDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Solid marine layer this morning led to cigs and dense fog. Over
the last hour or two conditions have improved except for the
immediate coast. Expect mainly VFR this afternoon with IFR to MVFR
impacting the immediate coastline. Tonight will feature another
night of marine layer intrusion, but the lower confidence is how
much. Hi-res guidance develops some offshore flow at 2500 ft,
which will battle the level moisture intrusion. That being said,
did allow for some lower cigs, but later with early clearing on
Wednesday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR this afternoon with onshore flow. Cigs come
back 08-10Z, but thin/clear during the AM rush Wednesday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Expect some cigs again
tonight, especially E side.

Monterey Bay Terminals...KSNS is VFR, but KMRY is holding onto
LIFR with slow clearing. Feeling optimistic with clearing for
KMRY by 19Z. Cigs do return this evening and lingering through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1047 AM PDT Tue Apr 29 2025

High pressure over the East Pacific will maintain strong
northwesterly winds through Wednesday. The strongest winds will be
over the outer waters with near- gale force gusts along with
rough seas. Moderate seas and moderate northwesterly breezes will
prevail Thursday and Friday. Strong northwesterly breezes and
rough seas return Saturday to the outer waters.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT
     Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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