Solvang, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

240
FXUS66 KLOX 112227
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
227 PM PST Wed Dec 11 2024

Updated Aviation and Marine sections

.SYNOPSIS...11/202 PM.

A couple of storm systems will move through the area, Thursday and
again later Saturday. Amounts will be light, except briefly heavy
in northwestern San Luis Obispo county Saturday. Temperatures
will mostly be a few degrees below normal, with slight warming
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...11/145 PM.

Offshore winds continue to diminish today as a storm system moves
into northern California, causing pressure falls over the Great
Basin. As a result, all red flag warnings and high wind hazards
have been discontinued. There will continue to be some locally
gusty northeast winds to around 30 mph through early Thursday and
areas of very low humidities, but not meeting any hazard
criteria.

Once again it will be quite chilly tonight with sub-freezing
overnight lows across the interior valleys and other wind
protected areas.

A weakening and fast moving upper low will mostly pass north and
east of the area Thursday. A rapidly decaying frontal boundary
will drop some light rain across northern areas and possibly some
drizzle or very light rain south. Amounts expected to be a quarter
inch or so across northern SLO County and a tenth or less south.
And many areas south of Santa Barbara will receive little to no
rain. Temperatures will be 3-6 degrees cooler than today.

Following the frontal passage a strong west wind will develop
through the Santa Barbara Channel and outer coastal waters
bringing some gusty west to northwest winds to the coastal areas
south of Pt Conception and the Santa Ynez range during the
afternoon and evening.

A little warmer Friday under a quick little pop up ridge in
between low pressure systems.

A second fast moving system Saturday into Saturday night will
have a slightly farther south trajectory and stronger southerly
winds with it which will provide higher rain rates and amounts
across northwest SLO County. Models are showing 50-60kt south to
southwest winds at 850 mb as it approaches the Central Coast late
Saturday morning with precipitable water close to 1". However, the
front will be moving very fast and the duration of rain will
likely not exceed 3 hours in any one location. Still, northwest
SLO County could get a quick inch of rain or locally more in that
period which could create some brief ponding of water on the roads
in that area.

The front will be weakening quickly as it moves through the area,
with rain totals tapering down to a third of an inch across
northern SBA County and likely a tenth or less across LA/Ventura
Counties.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...11/201 PM.

Chances for rain will return again on later Monday with another
weak system that likely will peter out before it reaches Santa
Barbara. Rain amounts will be quarter inch or less. Otherwise next
week looks dry with likely another Santa Ana wind event around
Wednesday. While the deterministic runs keep the preceding upper
trough farther east with offshore gradients only around -5 with
minimal upper support, there are at least 20-30% of ensemble
members that show the upper low making a closer path through the
Great Basin which could create a stronger offshore flow than the
deterministic models are currently showing.

Overall temperatures will be slowly warming through the period
with high by mid week in the low to mid 70s in the valleys and mod
to upper 60s closer to the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...11/2225Z.

At 21Z at KLAX, there was neither a marine layer nor an
inversion.

Medium to high confidence in TAFs. A frontal system will spread
light rain and MVFR cigs/vsbys southward for locations north of
Pt. Conception on Thursday. There is a 30% chance for minimum
forecast cig/vsby restrictions to be off by one category, and a
30% chance for onset times of restrictions to vary by +/- 2 hours.
Rain will become much more spotty as the front moves south of Pt.
Conception, however there is a 20% chance for rain along with
MVFR cigs for locations to the south. High confidence in VFR
conditions at desert TAFs.

KLAX...Medium to high confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance for
light rain and MVFR cigs to occur after 18Z Thursday. There is a
30% chance for an east wind component to reach 8 kt between 06Z
and 18Z on Thursday.

KBUR...Medium to high confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance for
light rain and MVFR cigs to occur after 18Z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...11/226 PM.

A frontal system will bring hazardous winds and seas to most of
the coastal waters for Thursday.

For the Inner Waters north of Pt. Sal, Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
conditions are forecast to develop on Thursday and continue
through Thursday evening, and then there is a 60% chance for SCA
conditions to persist through Friday and re-develop over the
weekend.

For the Inner Waters south of Pt. Sal, SCA conditions are
forecast to develop early Thursday and continue through Thursday
afternoon, with GALE-FORCE winds expected over the Santa Barbara
Channel on Thursday. There is a 30% chance for SCA winds to
continue over the Santa Barbara Channel Thursday evening, and then
SCA conditions are unlikely afterward.

For the Outer Waters, SCA conditions are forecast to begin
developing late tonight with GALE-FORCE winds expected over the
central/southern Outer Waters for Thursday. There is at least an
80% chance for SCA winds to continue later in the week through
the weekend and into next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...11/1233 PM.

All Red Flag Warnings will end early as winds have decreased
faster than expected. While very dry air and elevated fire
weather conditions will persist into tonight, the threat of
critical fire weather conditions have ended.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 4 PM Thursday to 4 PM PST
      Sunday for zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect from Thursday afternoon
      through Sunday afternoon for zones 349-350-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM PST
      Thursday for zones 645-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 AM to 10 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday for
      zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 4 AM to 10 PM PST
      Thursday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Cohen
MARINE...Cohen
FIRE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox