Smiley Park, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

970
FXUS66 KSGX 030332
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
832 PM PDT Fri May 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move into Southern California this
weekend. It will keep our marine layer deep and the clouds
pervasive and bring cooler weather, especially Sunday. It will
also bring strong winds Saturday afternoon through Sunday along
with scattered showers including snow in the higher mountains.
A smaller chance of showers continues through Tuesday. Dry and
warmer weather expected Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Evening update...
A few light showers are ongoing across the high desert but should
dissipate over the next couple hours. Low clouds were slow to
clear this afternoon, but should redevelop quickly tonight,
filling in over the coastal areas and valleys by sunrise. A few
patches of drizzle are possible along the coast again Saturday
morning with a developing coastal eddy and a roughly 3000 ft deep
marine layer in place.

Previous discussion...
A trough off the NorCal coast will amplify and
drop southward, eventually cutting off from the jet stream and
dropping into SoCal by Saturday evening. Initially, this will
enhance our marine layer even further for Saturday, featuring a
pretty robust eddy. Strong onshore winds come next Saturday
afternoon. Gusts of 35-50 mph will be common across the mountains
and deserts, with isolated gusts through mountain passes into
deserts reaching or topping 65 mph. Finally, the showers arrive
Saturday evening, but not for everyone, and continue through at
least Sunday.

The trough axis moves east of our area, but rotating
lobes of vorticity and moisture continue to drop south through
SoCal through Tuesday. That will keep small chances of showers in
the forecast, but with a more emphasis inland. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon in the high desert and
mountains, potentially drifting into the Inland Empire.
Precipitation amounts are not impressive: near zero near the
coast, ramping up to about 0.50 inch in the mountains, but locally
higher where any thunderstorm occurs. Model trends have stepped
back on the cold air and instability of this system. Snow levels
have risen as a result and are now bottoming out at around 5,500
feet in the south and 6,500 feet in the north. Snowfall still
looks like 1 to 3 inches, but only accumulating above 6,500 or
7,000 feet.

Winds drop off some Sunday afternoon and evening. High
temperatures on Sunday will flirt with low max temp records with
upper 50s to lower 60s in the coastal basin, 40s and 50s in the
mountains, 60s in the high desert and 70s in the low desert. Yeah,
that`s cold for May, 15-20 degrees below normal for some inland
areas. Isolated to scattered showers will continue on Monday, and
even less so on Tuesday, but the best chances will be in the
mountains.

Finally, the pulses of energy from the north will stop
and the trough continues to weaken and move east. That will bring
dry and warmer weather Wednesday and especially Thursday. The
longwave ridge amplifies quite well over our region Wednesday and
beyond, but there is some weak shortwave troughing that dampens
it. The warming trend should be enough to bring temperatures above
normal Thursday and Friday. 70s at the coast and 80s inland might
feel good for a change. Meanwhile, the marine layer should
rebuild quickly to reestablish our seasonal nocturnal cloud
pattern near the coast.


&&

.AVIATION...
020300Z....Coasts/Valleys...Areas of low clouds with bases 1900-
2400 ft MS and tops to 3000 ft MSL will continue to develop over the
coastal areas and western valleys through 07Z then fill in over the
rest of the coastal basin by 12Z. Patchy DZ possible 10-16Z. Clouds
clearing inland 16-19Z, remaining BKN-OVC along the coast and up to
10 mi inland through the afternoon. Clouds will quickly fill in
again Saturday evening with bases rising to around 2500 ft MSL and
tops to 5000 ft MSL with a 15-20% chance of SHRA Saturday night.

Mountains/Deserts...Isolated light SHRA over the Mojave desert
dissipating by 06Z. Otherwise FEW-SCT clouds at/above 10,000 ft MSL
and unrestricted vis through Saturday afternoon. Southwest to west
winds with surface gusts 25-35 kt Saturday afternoon, locally up to
40 kt below the passes Saturday evening. MOD-STG up/downdrafts and
areas of LLWS possible over and east of the mountains Saturday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty west-northwest winds will develop over the coastal waters
Saturday afternoon, strongest Saturday evening into early Sunday
morning. Wind gusts will be around 25-30 kt over the outer coastal
waters and 20 kt over the inner coastal waters. Combined seas of 8-
11 feet in the outer coastal waters and 7-9 feet in inner coastal
waters with steep waves are expected. Wave heights peak Sunday
morning and gradually lower Sunday afternoon into Monday. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for the outer coastal waters from
11 AM Saturday through 11 AM Sunday for the outer coastal waters and
from 11 PM Saturday to 11 PM Sunday for the inner coastal waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
A west swell of 8-11 foot swell with a 6-9 second period will
generate elevated surf and a high risk of rip currents on Sunday.
Surf of 3-6 ft is most likely with sets to 7 ft in southern San
Diego County. Elevated surf may continue into Monday morning. Surf
and a high risk of rip currents will create hazardous swimming
conditions at all beaches Sunday. Swell and surf will lower later on
Monday.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM PDT Sunday for San
     Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for
     Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     and out to 10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending
     10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS/MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS