Shell Beach, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

369
FXUS66 KLOX 071852
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1152 AM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Updated Aviation Section

.SYNOPSIS...07/916 AM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue for the
next several days over the coast and valleys with slow, if any,
clearing at the coast. A warming trend will develop for the
weekend and through next week, mainly for inland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...07/931 AM.

***UPDATE***

An upper low continues to spin just a few hundred miles west of
Central California. While models have been indicating a warming
trend this weekend, so far the marine layer appears to be hanging
tough with very little change in the depth this morning compared
to the last few days. Inland areas well away from the coastal
influence are showing signs of warming today but most coast and
coastal valleys are either trending the same or even slightly
cooler than yesterday as the marine layer depth remains steady at
just under 3000 feet across the LA Basin and 2000 feet along the
Central Coast. Hard to see this pattern changing much until that
upper low finally moves into AZ late Monday so some downward
adjustment in highs may be needed today for coastal valleys this
weekend.

***From Previous Discussion***

Quiet weather is on tap, as a moisture starved low pressure system
over the Bay Area will shift southwest a few hundred miles off the
Central Coast. This low pressure system will cause 500 mb heights
and thicknesses to rise over the area the next couple of days,
allowing high temperatures to warm 1-3 degrees each day
(especially for more inland areas). High temps are expected to
reach the low to mid 90s in the warmest valleys, while coastal
areas are in the upper 60s and 70s.

One hiccup, mainly at the coasts, will be the marine layer
clouds. As The 500 mb heights rise, the marine layer depth will
become more shallow, which may lead to some dense fog along the
Central Coast and some of the LA/Ventura valleys. Additionally,
slow (and maybe even limited) clearing at the beaches could keep
high temps a little cooler than currently forecast. Otherwise, some
breezy, but sub-advisory, afternoon/evening winds across the
deserts and southwest Santa Barbara County

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...07/119 AM.

As the upper level low moves into Arizona on Tuesday, a little
ridge will nudge into California. This ridge will allow one final
day of warming, with high temps reaching around the mid 90s for
coastal valleys and around 100 degrees for the Antelope Valley.
Not expecting temperatures to be high enough for heat advisories.

Through the rest of the week, a trough will develop over the
Pacific NW, allowing 500 mb heights to decrease resulting in a
slow cooling trend.

&&

.AVIATION...07/1851Z.

At 1659Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 2200 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was 4200 feet with a temperature of 22
degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR TAFs at KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF. There is a
10% chance for LIFR to IFR cigs at KPRB after 12Z.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY. Arrival of cigs
tonight may be as late as 10Z. There is a 20% chance for LIFR
conds.

Moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a chance
for no clearing at KOXR (30%), KCMA (20%), KSMO (20%), KLGB (20%)
and KLAX (30%). Otherwise, arrival times of cigs may be off +/- 3
hours. Minimum flight cats may be one cat higher than minimum
fcst cat overnight.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance for no
clearing today. Otherwise, return of cigs may be off +/- 2 hours.
There is a 20% chance cigs remain 010 or higher through the
period. No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of cigs tonight may be
as late as 10Z. There is a 20% chance for LIFR conds.

&&

.MARINE...07/844 AM.

Moderate confidence in conditions remaining below Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) levels through Sunday morning. NW winds will then
increase to SCA levels in the Outer Waters south of Point
Conception and the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel
Sunday afternoon. SCA level NW winds will become more widespread
across the Outer Waters and potentially the Inner Waters along
the Central Coast Monday afternoon through much of the work week,
and chances for SCA level winds for the western portion of the SBA
Channel will also increase. Moderate to high confidence in winds
remaining below SCA levels across the remainder of the Inner
Waters south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Lund
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox