Shaver Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

299
FXUS66 KHNX 041814
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
251 AM PST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Dry weather will prevail through next week with above average
temperatures.

2. Nighttime and morning fog, locally dense in the early
morning, remains possible every day through next week for the
San Joaquin Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog continues to cover the San Joaquin Valley early this
morning. IR Fog channel on the satellite this morning
shows the dense from the southern suburbs of the city of Fresno
heading south with Visalia as the eastern boundary and LeMoore
on the west end. Highway 99 from Fresno to Delano, Highway 43
from Fresno to its terminus at I-5, and Highway 198 from
Visalia to Lemoore are experiencing visibility near zero at
times this morning. Elsewhere in the valley the fog is reduces
visibility down to a mile with isolated dense patches. The DFA
looks solid for this morning continuing to midday. Fog
probabilities show lift out time around noon on average for the
region.

The culprit is the blocked up flow over the western CONUS with a
weak upper low over the Golden State and high pressure over the
PacNW. This is stagnating the pattern allowing to the continued
favored environment for Tule Fog development in the San Joaquin
Valley. This pattern continues through Sunday with the Fog/Dense
Fog daily/nightly in the San Joaquin Valley. Temperatures in
this pattern will continue slightly above climatological
normals. The anticipated pattern shift, discussed below, looks
to bring in a tad cooler temperatures.

Not to forget our Kern County/High Sierra friends, however this
pattern really is just a pattern of fair weather cirrus and
above normal temperatures.

Monday through next Wednesday brings a little change in the
upper level pattern for California and western US. A strong
upper level trough blows through the PacNW on Sunday and splits
into two parts with one speeding into the Northern Plains on
Monday and the other part digging into the Desert Southwest.
Thus another ridge builds over California. The run-to-run
changes in the European and GFS ensembles show very little
change now in the last few runs. Holding fairly confident in
this change. However, upper level blocks have a mind of their
own at times. The solutions do seem reasonable for the change.
The clusters are all in the same song book, maybe not the same
page, but have similar ideas on the pattern evolution. Will say
that high confidence in the pattern seems reasonable.

The CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks continue with the mid
month outlook for continued above normal temperatures and below
normal precipitation for California.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: LIFR is expected from south of KFAT down to just north of
Kern County through 20Z. KFAT/KBFL are primary MVFR/IFR through 20Z.
Probabilities of LIFR continue to be 80 to near 100 percent for
KVIS. VFR conditions currently present for KMCE/KMER, extending
through 04Z Thursday. MVFR/IFR conditions are favorable to develop
again for KMCE/KMER/KFAT/KVIS in mist and fog 06Z through 18Z. MVFR
conditions for KBFL for haze during similar time period.

High Sierra/Foothills/Kern County Desert: VFR few high clouds
for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  12/03/2024 15:18
EXPIRES: 12/04/2024 23:59
On Wednesday December 4 2024,  Unhealthy in Kern, Kings, and
Tulare Counties. Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Fresno and
Madera Counties.  Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No
Burning For All in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, and Tulare
Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Merced County. Burning
Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for CAZ302-303-306-307-
310>312-314-315.
&&

$$

Operations/DSS...Proton

weather.gov/hanford