San Carlos, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

780
FXUS66 KMTR 020455
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
955 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025

Deep marine layer and onshore moisture advection allowing for
ample coastal cloud cover this afternoon. Generally quiet
conditions over the next 24 hours before a deep upper low begins
to affect the region by late Friday. Gusty winds likely throughout
the weekend before warm and dry conditions return for next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025

Scattered thunderstorms passed through far southeastern Monterey
County this afternoon with the Parkfield RAWs site reporting a
whopping 0.57 inches of rain from 3PM to 5PM. KMUX picked up a few
lightning strikes in the vicinity of a series of storms that popped
up on the Monterey/Fresno border but otherwise quiet weather
persisted across the rest of the CWA. A current look at satellite
data shows stratus creeping up the San Pablo Bay into the delta, the
North Bay Valleys, and pushing further into coastal areas. Skies
will be fairly overcast tonight with some patchy drizzle possible
along the coastline and higher terrain tomorrow morning. Forecast
remains on track for gusty onshore winds starting late Friday and
continuing through Sunday morning. Remember to either bring in or
secure and loose outdoor items before winds start to increase Friday
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025

Subtle ridging taking over across the northern half of the state
as a weak upper low exits the southern part of the state. Some
lingering instability and ample daytime heating has aided in the
development of an isolated cumulus field over southern San Benito
county closer to the upper low. There are a few light returns on
radar at the moment, which will likely persist moving into
southern Monterey County through this afternoon and early evening.
Mostly isolated showers, but a lightning strike or two cannot be
ruled out along a corridor from Santa Rita peak to San Simeon
including Lakes San Antonio and Nacimiento. Otherwise, inland
areas remain cloudless under larger scale subsidence to the north.
By Friday afternoon we will start seeing increasing cloud cover
ahead of the approaching deep trough digging in from the NEPac.
We will start to see breezy conditions Friday evening, but the
main event is on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025

KEY POINTS
- Gusty NW winds peaking Saturday afternoon/evening
- Inland gusts 35-45 mph
- Coastal gusts 45-50 mph
- Very little rainfall Saturday AM
- Elevated fire danger interior North Bay/East Bay Monday AM
  (dry, offshore wind)

Increasing confidence in the wind threat on Saturday following the
arrival of a deep upper trough. Winds are set to increase through
the morning, but will likely peak during the afternoon and evening
hours after the trough axis passes and a robust 80 kt jet at 500
mb sets up along the coast in its wake. Rain chances are still in
the forecast, but are minimal. Most locations will not see
measurable precip, but a few may pick up a few hundredths of an
inch in the form of heavy drizzle or light rain Saturday morning.
With the jet streak paralleling the coast, we aren`t expecting a
widespread damaging wind event across inland areas. However,
coastal areas and NW-SE oriented gaps (e.g. San Bruno Gap and
Salinas Valley) will see enhanced gust potential up to 45-50 mph.
The remainder of inland areas will more than likely top between
35-40 mph range with a few localized higher gusts. At this time
decided not to issue a Wind Advisory give that criteria only
exists over localized areas for a short time. However, if the
forecast continues to trend upwards then a targeted advisory may
be needed for coastal and narrow valley areas Saturday evening. By
Sunday evening the upper level flow begins to bifurcate over the
northern Rockies and the upper low begins to close off over the
Desert Southwest. This in addition to amplified ridging upstream
results in an offshore wind setup primarily across North Bay and
East Bay higher terrain. Humidities don`t appear dire at this
point, but this is likely to be one of our first days of elevated
fire danger in the interior North Bay. The good news is that this
looks to be a relatively quick shot of dry offshore wind peaking
Monday morning before the upper level momentum quickly moves south
and surface pressure gradients relax Monday afternoon. Beyond
Monday, ridging takes over the pattern and warm, dry conditions
persist through the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 955 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025

Coastal stratus and fog /MVFR-IFR/ continue, inland it`s clear
/VFR/. The marine layer varies in depth from 2000 feet along the
north Central Coast to 1000-1200 feet in the Bay Area. Onshore
winds will usher stratus and fog inland tonight and Friday morning.
Stratus mixes out by late Friday morning, increasing cold air
advection aloft will steadily erode the lower level temperature
inversion Friday and Friday night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR, except tempo IFR ceiling 06z-10z Friday
with IFR prevailing 10z-18z Friday based on RAP model output.
Northwest to west wind 10 to 13 knots tonight and Friday morning,
west wind increasing to 18 to 25 knots Friday afternoon and
evening. MVFR ceiling redeveloping Friday evening and night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR-IFR stratus ceilings tonight and
Friday morning. Stratus mixes out by late Friday morning. Onshore
winds 5 to 15 knots. MVFR ceilings redeveloping Friday evening and
night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 906 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025

Northwest winds remain over the waters with high pressure parked
to our north. Winds will be locally stronger over the outer waters
through mid-day Friday. Northwest winds increase over all waters
Friday night and especially over the weekend thanks to a passing
cold front. Gale force winds will be likely resulting in hazardous
conditions, fresh swell and rough seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt
     0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for
     Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
     NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60
     NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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