Royal Oaks, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

654
FXUS66 KSGX 231108
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
308 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will occur through the middle of the week, with
temperatures reaching 10-20 degrees above normal by Wednesday.
Elevated Santa Ana winds are expected to make a return by
Wednesday and Thursday. A notably cooler weather pattern will
occur by Friday into next weekend with increased chances for light
precipitation across Southern California.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Another early morning with a light offshore wind pattern is
continuing for your weekend, which is helping to keep low clouds
and fog mainly off the coast at this hour. Satellite shows a few
patches of clouds starting to form off of San Diego County. This
trend will continue through the morning hours with intermittent
foggy conditions near the beaches, becoming mostly clear by the
afternoon. High pressure over the East Pac will maintain our
warmer weather pattern today into Monday. The marine layer will
continue to be thin, so low clouds and fog are possible at the
coast again Monday morning.

By Monday through Wednesday, a thermal ridge will amplify across
the desert southwest, where 850mb temps peak near 18C. This will
first start to be felt across the deserts on Monday with
increasing temperatures; plentiful 70s to near 80 expected across
the high desert and 80s in the lower deserts. NBM depicts around
a 25% chance of Palm Springs reaching 90 degrees. Slight warming
will occur by Tuesday for areas away from the coast with higher
confidence in highs in the lower 90s in the lower deserts and low
to mid 80s for valleys west of the mountains. The ridge over the
East Pac will amplify across the West Coast as upper level winds
turn offshore by Wednesday. This will lead to the warmest day of
the week overall. Confidence is growing that some inland valleys
west of the mountains will reach 90 degrees, the first time this
year. The calendar may read February, but make sure to seek shade
and take rest breaks with water if having to be outside for long
periods of time.

The amplified ridge will begin to become cutoff over the Great
Basin as an area of low pressure pushes toward California by
Thursday. Model spread in temperatures continue to be seen, but I
have leaned toward warmer temps as winds become stronger from the
NE/E as the pressure gradient tightens between the high to the
north and the low to the west. Thursday could see the strongest
Santa Ana winds of the week. Model spread is evident as some
members show a weaker event, while others show a more moderate
event, especially for east-west passes in Riverside and San Diego
counties. This event will be short-lived as the low off the coast
will push inland on Friday. This will lead to greater onshore
flow and cooling across the region, where temperatures will fall
around 5 degrees for most areas from Thursday to Friday, closer
to 10 to even 15 degrees for valleys west of the mountains.
Ensembles begin to show an increase chance for precipitation as
this low moves ashore, but things are not looking too good for
anything substantial. The best chance of precip will be across
western San Diego county if any rain drops decide to fall out of
the sky for us.

Hope is not lost, however, as forecast models show another
stronger area of low pressure slated to move into the West Coast
by next weekend. As we are still about a week away from this,
there is large spread in model solutions on where this low goes,
notably if it will elongate far south enough toward our region to
give us precipitation. NBM chances look adequate in the forecast
for now, giving us a low to moderate chance for some wetter
weather as we head into the month of March.

&&

AVIATION...
231045Z...Coast...Low clouds have struggled to develop this morning,
with only a small patch of clouds along the central San Diego County
coast and some more patches out over the waters. Bases in these
highly localized patches are 200-400ft MSL with associated fog
leading to VIS 0-2SM. Chances for low clouds and fog filling in
along the coasts continues to fall with each passing hour and at
this rate, many locations along the coast will remain clear this
morning. There is still a 5-10% chance that low clouds/fog briefly
sneak into KCRQ or KSAN. Any loitering clouds clear out later this
morning, with VFR prevailing throughout the day. Low clouds and fog
are possible once again tonight into Monday morning, but look to be
very patchy and isolated like this morning.

Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear skies with unrestricted VIS
will prevail through Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Patchy dense fog will continue through late this morning, clearing
by 10-11 AM. Visibility will be below 1 NM at times, locally below
1/4 NM. Patchy dense fog is possible again tonight into Monday
morning. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected
through Thursday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan