Rancho Palos Verdes, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

921
FXUS66 KLOX 270425
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
825 PM PST Tue Nov 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...26/721 PM.

On and off light showers will continue through tonight across the
area, with a slight chance of light rain over eastern Los Angeles
County into the morning. Otherwise, dry weather is expected Wednesday
through the Thanksgiving weekend, with a slow warming trend and
light to moderate Santa Ana breezes at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...26/745 PM.

***UPDATE***

Scattered to isolated light showers are affecting portions of the
area this evening, focused mainly over Ventura and Los Angeles
Counties at this time. Rain rates have been under tenth of an
inch per hour, and in most places 0.02 inch per hour or less. The
showers will continue to diminish overnight, and by Wednesday
morning there may be some lingering sprinkles over eastern LA
County, but otherwise showers will have ended. Mostly cloudy
skies early in the day will clear to mostly sunny in the
afternoon, with a warmup of about 6 to 8 degrees for most areas.
Highs Wednesday will be in the 60s to lower 70s in the valleys
toward the coast. Winds will shift from northerly to the northeast
by late morning, with gusts up to around 20 mph over the LA
County interior.

***From Previous Discussion***

A slow warming trend will begin on Thanksgiving day coupled with
light to locally moderate offshore flow. Forecast LAX-DAG
gradients have been bouncing around quite a bit the last few days
but seem to have settled at around -3 to -5mb. Winds aloft have
picked up slightly in the latest models but at best this would be
a very low end Santa Ana event. Good enough to lower humidities to
under 30% most areas and initiate a slow warming trend into the
weekend. Highs expected to return to the low 70s as early as
Wednesday with one to two degrees of warming each day into the
weekend. Warmest valleys could be approaching 80 by Monday.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...26/210 PM.

Ensembles continue to favor a dry pattern through the weekend and
likely through the first week in December as a long wave ridge
develops along the West Coast of North America sending all storms
well up and over the state. The ensemble mean H5 pattern shows a
little kink on the east side of the ridge suggesting there are at
least a few individual solutions with an inside slider or back
door trough through the Great Basin that could bring some gusty
Santa Ana winds at times. And in fact there are a few EC ensemble
solutions showing an increase in winds again around the middle of
next week. Overall, very high confidence in a dry pattern for the
next week at least and likely well beyond that.

&&

.AVIATION...27/0202Z.

At 00Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion.

Overall, low to moderate confidence in TAFs. Moderate LLWS and
UDDF will be possible in and near higher terrain through 06Z Wed.
Timing of flight cat changes and and minimum flight category may
be off by +/- 3 hours and at least one category. Periods of Light
rain is generally expected through 06Z, isolated showers may
linger for some TAF sites through 12Z. There is a 10-20 percent
chance of VSBY 1/4SM-1/2SM during peak rain at all sites. Conds
may frequently bounce categories as rain starts and stops.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat
changes and and minimum flight category may be off by +/- 3 hours
and at least one category. There is a 10 percent chance of VSBY
1/4SM-1/2SM through 15Z Wednesday, especially during rain. There
is a 20% chance of an east wind component of 7-8 kt from 15Z-19Z
Wed.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight cat
changes and and minimum flight category may be off by +/- 3 hours
and at least one category, respectively. There is a 10 percent
chance of VSBY 1/4SM-1/2SM, especially during rain.

&&

.MARINE...26/816 PM.

Isolated to scattered rain showers are expected across the CWA
through tonight, with vsbys down to 1 NM or less at times.
Lingering light showers may continue into Wednesday morning.

For the outer waters, there is high confidence in forecast. There
is a 10 to 20% chance of SCA level wind gusts through Thursday
morning. Otherwise, conds should remain below advisory levels
through Saturday.

For all the inner waters, moderate to high confidence in winds
and seas remaining below SCA levels through Saturday. There is a
30% chance of SCA level NE wind gusts nearshore across the inner
waters along the Central Coast and from Ventura to Malibu during
the late night into morning hours Wednesday night into Friday
morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Black/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox