Pope Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

727
FXUS66 KMTR 111854
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1154 AM PDT Sun May 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 AM PDT Sun May 11 2025

Unsettled weather returns today and continues into early next week in
the form of strong and gusty onshore winds, light rainfall, below
normal temperatures, and a 10% chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 AM PDT Sun May 11 2025

No changes are necessary to the forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 226 AM PDT Sun May 11 2025

Unsettled weather returns to the region today thanks to an upper-
level low in the Gulf of Alaska. This feature will dig along the
West Coast over the next 24 hours, weakening and becoming an open
wave once it moves inland Monday. While no products or headlines are
anticipated at this time, there`s still plenty to talk about. The
greatest impact will be from the strong and gusty onshore winds. The
strongest winds can be expected in the highest terrain and gaps and
passes, namely Altamont Pass and Pacheco Pass, where gusts of 50mph
are expected. Widespread gusts of 25-35mph can be expected
elsewhere. Strong winds may move loose debris, result in minor
property damage, and cause sporadic power outages. Travel could
become difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Secure loose
outdoor objects that could be blown around or damaged by the mind.
Cloud cover and rain chances will increase this evening with the
Bay Area and Northern Monterey Bay all on tap to receive
precipitation by tomorrow afternoon. With the help of orographic
lift, higher terrain will receive locally higher amounts with
wetting rains forecast for the North Bay Hills and Mountains as
well as parts of the Santa Cruz Mountains. While not impactful (in
fact it`ll be beneficial as the region recovers from moderate and
minor HeatRisk), temperature whiplash will certainly ensure today
as temperatures will be 20 degrees cooler than they were
yesterday, bottoming out to 10 degrees below normal tomorrow. The
responsible surface low will leave the post-frontal environment
with a low probability (10%)/high impact threat for thunderstorms
Monday. The necessary ingredients of lift (cold front with upper-
level support, vorticity maximum, 125 knot jet streak at 300
millibars), instability (warm, moist air below cold, dry air), and
moisture (precipitable water value of 0.70 inches) are there, but
whether or not they align in time and space is the holdup. As the
threat seems more prevalent Monday than Tuesday now, the limiting
factor is even moreso instability, let me explain. If clouds
linger, the atmosphere will remain more stable. If clouds clear
and daytime heating is realized, the atmosphere will become more
unstable. I would say hills and mountains have the best chance,
but even then it may just come to fruition in the form of
cumulus. If a thunderstorm were to develop, the threats include
lightning, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
The unsettled weather will result in the Oakland Museum (OAMC1)
forecast to approach its daily minimum temperature records of 47
degrees set in 1974 on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, the
official forecast is 50 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 226 AM PDT Sun May 11 2025

Heights will be slow to rebuild Wednesday as the upper-level low
exits to the east. There is quite a bit of uncertainty Thursday and
beyond. Taking a look at global ensemble clusters, 68% suggest
heights will continue to build Thursday, while 32% suggest that
heights will stay the same or start falling again. This uncertainty
will obviously propagate through subsequent days. The most probable
outcomes of zonal flow, split flow, or shortwave troughing would
suggest temperatures near to slightly below seasonal normals with
nothing impactful on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 AM PDT Sun May 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across much of the Bay Area and Central
Coast this afternoon. Some stratus lingers along the San Francisco
Peninsula and along the Central Coast, which may hold MVFR cigs for
awhile. Otherwise, look for gusty on shore flow today ahead of the
next weak weather system. This will bring increasing high clouds to
the region with precip chances likely beginning after 6Z for North
Bay terminals and closer to 10-13Z or so for Bay Area terminals,
with KLVK and KSJC potentially only having VCSH. Farther south,
precip chances decrease with no mentionable pop at the Monterey Bay
terminals yet. MVFR cigs are expected as the system approaches with
conditions lifting back to VFR as it exits.

Vicinity of SFO...Stratus has held around KSFO and surrounding TAF
sites this morning, with observations reporting MVFR cigs. The
question becomes when will this mix out. Most guidance had this gone
by roughly 19Z, but looking at the lastest trends it might  be
closer to 20Z or so. VFR conditions should then hold and be
accompanied with gusty winds through the early evening. A weak
system will approach the region tonight, which will lower clouds
back to MVFR. By early Monday morning it should bring either
vicinity showers or light rain to the region by early Monday
morning, with clouds gradually lifting back to MVFR to VFR status.
Dry weather is expected by late morning and early afternoon, which
will be accompanied with VFR conditions.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. A few MVFR clouds maybe
lingering around the approach; however, the bulk of the stratus
should remain confined over land.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus has decided to slide into the
souther part of the Monterey Bay Peninsula with KMRY reporting
SCT006. Will need to see if this holds or if we`re likely able to
stay VFR until the frontal system arrives. MVFR cigs are expected
late tonight and into Monday morning, with conditions improving as
the front exits the region late morning or by the afternoon. &&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 851 AM PDT Sun May 11 2025

Breezy and gusty winds continue with near gale force gusts today
for the southern most waters. Winds begin to reduce into the
afternoon but hazardous winds for smaller craft linger into
Monday. Light rain will be possible on Monday as a front moves
across the region with diminishing winds in the wake of the
frontal passage. Winds increase once again toward the middle of
the upcoming week. Moderate seas continue through the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of
     Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR

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