Orange, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

884
FXUS66 KSGX 240450
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
850 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures are expected west of the mountains today,
with chances of showers this afternoon and overnight. Rain chances
will move from northwest to southeast, starting in Orange County and
southwestern San Bernardino County this afternoon and ending in San
Diego county by Sunday morning. The rest of Sunday is expected to
remain dry, with additional chances of precipitation Monday through
Wednesday. Periods of gusty westerly winds for the mountains and
deserts are expected tonight into Sunday and again Tuesday into
Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected for the Thanksgiving
holiday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

No significant changes to the forecast this evening as drizzle and
light rain showers continues to move into coastal southern
California. Current observations show a storm total of at least
0.01 at most locations with Crestline area receiving the highest
amounts from the storm with Cajon Canyon reporting 0.18 inches so
far from this storm.

Previous discussion from 1:46 pm November 23rd, 2024

A few light showers had made it to the LA/Orange County line as of
1:30 PM. Showers are expected to become more widespread and spread
southeast into San Diego county overnight. As far as forecast
rainfall totals go, most low elevation areas will see a tenth of an
inch or less, with Orange County and the Inland Empire the most
likely place to see totals closer to a tenth of an inch. Orographic
effects are expected to bring higher rainfall totals to the coastal
slopes of the mountains, particularly the San Bernardino Mountains.
Forecast totals range from 0.10-0.35 inches, locally up to 0.75 inch
in the San Bernardino county mountains. For the San Diego and
Riverside mountains, rainfall totals will be 0.10-0.25 inches.

Gusty west winds will continue over the mountains and into the
deserts. Winds will peak in strength late tonight into early Sunday.
Peak gusts of 30 to 45 mph expected. Winds will weaken by Sunday
afternoon. Snow levels will remain near or above 7000 ft through
Sunday. Only minor snow accumulations are expected.

Another moisture surge is expected for early to mid next week.
Periods of rain are possible as early as Monday for Orange County,
portions of the Inland Empire, San Bernardino mountains, and High
Desert. Wetter conditions are expected to spread south into San
Diego County sometime Tuesday into Wednesday. Most ensemble members
for both the ECMWF and GEFS are showing light to moderate
precipitation for areas north of San Diego County, with the trend
towards lighter amounts for San Diego County. In addition to periods
of rain, gusty westerly winds are again expected for the mountains
and deserts. Snow levels are expected to remain 7000 ft and above.
Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly below average
for areas west of the mountains through the middle of the week.

Dry conditions are expected for Thursday and much of Friday. By
Saturday, there becomes some disagreement in model solutions. About
55 percent of ensemble solutions show ridging over California and
drier conditions, with 45 percent showing weak troughing and wetter
conditions for Saturday. The forecast for late Friday into next
Saturday follows the NBM with slight (15 to 20 percent) chances of
precipitation in and west of the mountains. The alternative to the
current forecast is warmer and dry conditions.


&&

.AVIATION...
240430Z...Coast/Valleys...Satellite shows low clouds spreading to
the east this evening as a weather system moves into the area, with
bases 2000-3500 ft MSL and tops to 4000-7000 ft MSL. CIGs likely to
lower slightly overnight through about 11Z. -SHRA also moving across
the region through about 12Z bringing local VIS 3-5 miles and CIGs
700-1500 ft MSL, with areas of terrain obscuration in clouds/-SHRA.
Low clouds in most areas will clear 18-20Z Sunday, but mid to high
clouds will prevail through Sunday night.

Mountains...Periods of gusty winds near mountain peaks and mountain
passes tonight with gusts up to 30 mph. Areas of terrain
obscurations through Sunday morning due to clouds/FG/-SHRA,
especially on the coastal slopes, with cloud tops mostly to around
10,000ft MSL. Mid level cloud cover with SCT-OVC will prevail for
most of Sunday.

Deserts...FEW-SCT mid to high clouds with bases 10,000-12,000ft MSL,
becoming SCT-BKN by Sunday morning with similar bases. Brief periods
of gusty winds up to 20 mph possible through about 14Z Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Wednesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Suk
AVIATION/MARINE...CSP