Newell, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

520
FXUS66 KMFR 071801
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1101 AM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 18Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows marine stratus along the
coast and into portions of the Coquille Basin. The marine stratus
inland should burn off withing the next couple of hours, but could
linger along the coast through the morning hours, then just off
the coast later in the afternoon hours. Elsewhere it`s clear and
will remain that way into early this afternoon, followed by
patchy cumulus clouds over the mountains in northern California.

The forecast is on track and no changes are needed for today. The
main focus ahead will be analyzing the thunderstorm potential in
the afternoon and early evening hours Sunday into Tuesday,
followed by the gradual cooling mid next week into next weekend.
-Petrucelli

&&

.AVIATION...06/18Z TAFs...The last areas of marine stratus are
clearing along the Oregon coast. This will bring all terminals to
VFR levels this morning. Gusty winds look to develop along the coast
early this afternoon, while inland areas will see normal diurnal
wind changes. Marine stratus returns to the coast later in the
afternoon, with IFR/LIFR levels expected through the rest of the TAF
period. Inland areas will remain under VFR levels. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 AM Saturday, June 7, 2025...Gusty north
winds and steep seas continue across area waters, with the
strongest winds south of Cape Blanco. The thermal trough will
gradually weaken today, with conditions slowly improving through
tonight and relatively calm conditions expected tonight into
Monday.

The thermal trough returns Tuesday, with gusty north winds and steep
to very steep seas the continuing through much of the week. -BPN


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 414 AM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025/

DISCUSSION...The skies remain clear over much ofthe area this
morning, with the exceptions of the coast and the near-shore waters,
where an extensive layer of marine stratus has pushed up to the
western slopes of the coastal ranges. These clouds should burn off
through the morning, with clear skies then expected for nearly the
entire forecast area by this afternoon.

The strong upper ridge just offshore will gradually move east and
pass over the area this weekend into early next week.
Meanwhile, the thermal trough will push inland as well, and this
will result in hot afternoon temperatures for the interior.
Afternoon highs across the area will be 15 to 20 degrees above
normal for this time of year, and some of the West Side valleys,
especially those in Josephine, Jackson, and Siskiyou counties, could
easily reach triple digits, especially Sunday and Monday.  A Heat
Advisory has been issued for the valleys of those three counties,
where moderate Heat Risk values are expected. Details can be found
at PDXNPWMFR.

It will be dry most of the time and for most locations for the
majority of the forecast area, however, we are keeping a sharp eye
on the potential for thunderstorms as monsoonal moisture enters the
area late this weekend into early next week. The weak upper low
drifting offshore of California will provide a route for moisture to
stream up from the south, and when combined with the hot daytime
temperatures, moderate instability is expected to develop by Sunday
afternoon in portions of northern California, then spread farther
north into Portions of southern Oregon by Monday. Models suggest
enough instability to cover all but the coast and the Umpqua Basin
by Tuesday afternoon, when an approaching weak upper level impulse
would provide the best chances for lift.

Sunday and Monday afternoons, instability will be marginal, with
CAPE values of up to 1000 J/kg and LIs of no less than -2. By
Tuesday, some models are bringing CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, with most
unstable LIs as low as -4. Also of note, precipitable water values
will steadily increase through Tuesday, reaching a peak of about 1.2
inches by Tuesday afternoon. With all this in mind, thunderstorms
are likely to remain sub-severe for much of the three day event,
although a few strong storms are possible with the potential for
gusty winds and small hail. The best dynamics, lift, and moisture
are available Tuesday, and this would be the day with the best
chances for more widespread thunderstorms, and we cannot rule out an
isolated near-severe storm or two. Given the higher moisture
content, some storms could also produce very heavy rain. Stay tuned
in to the latest forecast updates, as the details on any potential
storms should become more clear over the coming days.

Ensemble means are suggesting that some form of upper level
troughing will remain overhead for the latter half of next week,
with a strong majority of ensemble members showing a large upper
level low or open trough moving into the area Fathers Day weekend.
This would result in cooler temperatures and additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms during the remainder of the forecast,
especially next weekend. -BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Monday for ORZ024-
     026.

CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ080-
     081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-
     370.

&&

$$