Monterey, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

397
FXUS66 KMTR 031118
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
418 AM PDT Sat May 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM PDT Sat May 3 2025

The cold front will exit the region this morning, which may bring
isolated pockets of light rain or drizzle. The main feature with
this front will be increasing northwesterly winds today which will
last through much of the weekend. Breezy winds become offshore by
Monday and then ease as we head into Tuesday. Warmer weather
returns this coming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM PDT Sat May 3 2025

Key Messages

-Strong northwest winds today, likely peaking during the afternoon
 and evening hours
-Coastal wind gusts 40-50 mph
-Inland wind gusts 30-40 mph

A cold front will continue to advance eastwards this morning, with
perhaps a few isolated showers or patches of drizzle being possible.
The main story though will be increasing northwesterly winds behind
this feature which will last through Sunday. The strongest winds
look to be along the coast, where gusts should peak between 40-50
mph while inland areas vary from 30-40 mph. There`s still time this
morning to make sure that outdoor objects are secure. Note, the Wind
Advisory that was hoisted yesterday, remains intact and begins 11AM
this morning and goes through 5AM Sunday for coastal areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM PDT Sat May 3 2025

Key Messages

- Gusty northwest winds linger through Sunday
- Winds flip offshore Sunday night
- Elevated fire danger interior North Bay/East Bay Monday AM  (dry,
  offshore wind)

Northwest winds remain breezy on Sunday, before flipping offshore
late Sunday into Monday. The strongest winds with this flip will be
observed over the North and East Bay regions. Conditions will be
warmer and drier during this period which combined with the gusty
winds may help dry conditions out some, leading to some increased
fire weather danger. The good news is that fuels are relatively
moist, with the Mid-Coast to Mendocino potentially being the most
responsive to this set up on Monday.

As we head into Tuesday and the rest of the work week, winds
decrease and our more typical weather pattern returns. Cool and
cloudy mornings, which will be dependent on the marine layer, and
then warmer afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 418 AM PDT Sat May 3 2025

Generally IFR-MVFR stratus observed across the terminals with high
clouds associated with a passing cold front making determining the
extent difficult. The North Bay valleys are the main exception with
both STS and APC remaining VFR through the night. The mid- to high
level cloud cover will delay the mixing out of stratus ceilings, but
most terminals should see VFR conditions sometime this afternoon.
Strong, gusty northwest winds will develop this afternoon with gusts
reaching the 25 to 30 kt range into the evening, with the sustained
winds remaining breezy overnight and some lower level bumpiness
possible in the North Bay as winds aloft decouple from the surface,
although not expecting strong LLWS. A wind shift aloft towards a
more northerly and offshore flow pattern will keep stratus ceilings
at bay for most tonight. At the Monterey Bay terminals, stratus
might hold on through the TAF period, but this is a low to moderate
confidence forecast.

Vicinity of SFO... IFR conditions and breezy winds through the
morning. West-northwest winds will pick up this afternoon with gusts
reaching 35 to 40 knots, continuing into the evening hours. Possible
mid-level clouds continue through the end of the TAF period, but VFR
conditions should continue as winds subside overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... IFR-MVFR ceilings continue, at least
through the early afternoon. Beyond that, the ceiling forecast is
difficult as models disagree on the extent and height of the cloud
cover. Have opted to generally retain the current forecast where
ceilings lift to MVFR, but clearing to VFR or a return to IFR
tonight are also on the cards. Breezy and gusty west-northwest winds
develop this afternoon with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots, before
diminishing through the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM PDT Sat May 3 2025

Expect strong north to northwest winds building through the day,
hitting gale force by the evening. These winds will be
accompanied by widespread rough seas. Winds diminish and seas
reduce into the next work week, but breezy winds and moderate seas
remain hazardous for small craft through the first half of the
work week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 328 AM PDT Sat May 3 2025

A moderate period northwesterly swell will result in dangerous surf
conditions, especially along west and northwest facing beaches, with
the most confidence across the Central Coast. A Beach Hazards
Statement has been issued this evening through Monday morning for
the Monterey County coastline, where breaking waves of 15 to 20
feet are expected with the highest waves reaching 28 feet in
favored locations. Elevated surf is also expected along west and
northwest facing beaches towards the north, but with a slightly
shorter period in this region, confidence in hazardous conditions
is somewhat lower. The day shift will re-evaluate the marine
forecast and issue updated products if the need arises.

DialH

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Sunday for
     CAZ006-502-505-509-528-530.

     Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Monday morning
     for CAZ530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
     NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60
     NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday
     for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry
     Bay.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-
     10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60
     NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea