Merced, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

651
FXUS66 KHNX 122311
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
411 PM PDT Mon May 12 2025

.UPDATE...
Aviation and Air Quality Sections Updated.

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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A disturbance is expected to move through Central California
today, leading to strong winds in the Kern County Desert through
early Wednesday morning.

2. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Mojave Desert Slopes and
the Kern County Desert through Tuesday night, with sustained
winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph expected during
that time.

3. Cold air aloft along with mid level moisture may allow for
some isolated thunderstorms to develop along the Sierra Nevada
crest on Tuesday, with a 15 to 20 percent chance for
thunderstorms that afternoon.

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.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite imagery shows the leading edge of a trough in
the form of clouds coming through California today. It`s
expected to run through Central California today and tomorrow,
bringing breezy winds to the Valley and strong winds to the
desert slopes and to the lee of the Sierra Nevada mountains. A
Wind Advisory is in effect for the Mojave Slopes and higher Kern
Desert through Tuesday night due to these winds, which are
forecast to be 25 to 35 mph sustained with gusts up to 50 mph.

This trough will also bring in some mid level moisture, causing
the minimum relative humidity to increase compared to yesterday,
as well as possibly providing enough to allow for thunderstorm
development in the Sierra Nevada on Tuesday. These thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the afternoon on Tuesday as the main
axis of the trough moves through the region that day, with a 15
to 25 percent chance for these to develop. This system is also
expected to be a relatively cold one with snow levels forecast
to be around 6000 feet, which would allow for the precipitation
out of the thunderstorms to fall as snow, though only a couple
of inches are likely from this event.

After this trough moves out of the region, a more zonal flow is
expected to take over through the rest of the work week. This
weekend, however, may see another weak trough come through the
area. This trough may only create strong winds along the Mojave
Slopes and lead to a slight cooldown for the region over the
weekend.

&&


.AVIATION...
0Z Update:

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours in Central
California.

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  05/12/2025 14:45
EXPIRES: 05/13/2025 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ337>339.
&&

$$

public...EW/SM
aviation....JPK

weather.gov/hanford