Merced, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

313
FXUS66 KHNX 030453
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
953 PM PDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Minor Heat Risk is expected in the San Joaquin Valley through
Thursday before Moderate Heat Risk returns on Friday into the
weekend.

2. There is a 15 to 25 percent chance for thunderstorms in the
Sierra Nevada mountains each afternoon today through Wednesday,
with the Storm Prediction Center issuing a General Risk for
thunderstorms in the mountains for each of those days.

3. Breezy winds can be expected in the mountain and desert
regions today, due to a disturbance located over the Southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A disturbance located over the California/Arizona border
continues to bring in small amounts of moisture from the Gulf of
California to the south, leading to increased chances of
thunderstorms (15 to 30%) over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon.
This disturbance along with a shortwave trough to the north has
lead to reduced 500mb heights and slightly cooler temperatures
compared to yesterdays highs. Though these temperatures will
remain above normal, the Heat Risk is expected to be Minor today
and through Thursday as the shortwave trough swings south into
Central California. This will also keep afternoon thunderstorm
chances elevated with Tuesday and Wednesday seeing a 15 to 25%
chance for thunderstorm development. This disturbance will also
cause increased winds along the Sierra crest and Mojave Desert
today, though current forecasts have the wind gusts likely below
Advisory criteria.

Moving into Thursday and beyond, the larger trough that
contained the shortwave trough will remain over California,
however the energy contained within that trough is expected to
be less when compared to the shortwave, leading to reduced
thunderstorm chances after Thursday, though a 10 to 15% chance
still exists in the afternoon that day and Friday for the Sierra
Nevada. 500mb heights are also expected to increase Friday while
the trough remains aloft, leading to a warming trend beginning
that day. This is expected to continue through next weekend,
causing Moderate Heat Risk to return to the Valley starting
Friday and running through next Monday at least.

&&


.AVIATION...
06Z Update:

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the Central
California Interior. A 15-30 percent chance of thunderstorms
exists in the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains between
18Z Tue and 03Z Wed.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public...EW
aviation....BSO

weather.gov/hanford