Meiners Oaks, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

441
FXUS66 KLOX 190256
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
756 PM PDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...18/754 PM.

Generally clearing skies and warming conditions over the weekend,
with weaker onshore winds. A slow cooling trend will likely
develop Tuesday through the remainder of next week with
increasing night and morning low clouds and fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...18/754 PM.

***UPDATE***

A deep and cool moist layer remains over the region this evening.
Healthy onshore flow is keeping the clouds over most areas with no
obvious sign yet of clearing out. The low pressure system that
fueled the cloudy and cool close to the workweek is now centered
over north Arizona, and all projections show it sliding further to
the east tonight with high pressure aloft pushing into
California. This evolution is still favorable to drastically
weaken the onshore flow at the same time, likely resulting in a
brief burst (15-25 mph) of northeast winds over the mountains
Saturday morning. All of this adds up to the logical conclusion
of decreasing cloud overnight. The marine layer however often
defies logic, especially in a situation like this with rapid
synoptic changes. So if there was ever a textbook low confidence
forecast, it would be the cloud forecast for the next 18 hours.
With all that said however, confidence is high for risen
temperatures over the holiday weekend, especially away from the
coast.

***From Previous Discussion***

Chamber of commerce weather is expected over the weekend into
Monday with plenty of sunshine and temperatures rising to within
a few degrees of normal. Low confidence on when or if low clouds
and fog will reform but clouds should just be morning feature at
most. Gradients are already trending weaker today and expect that
to really kick in tonight into early Saturday with a 4-5mb
offshore trend, leading to some areas of breezy northeast winds
across the LA Mountains and some of the higher valley areas
Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...18/158 PM.

Onshore flow begins its return as early as Sunday but especially
Monday as the next trough deepens along the West Coast. No
precipitation expected locally but temperatures will begin a slow
cooling trend that will continue through the week. Low clouds and
fog will return to coastal areas by Monday if not before and
eventually the valleys as cooling aloft deepens the marine
inversion. The increasing onshore flow will create increasing
west to southwest winds especially in the Antelope Valley. But
otherwise a fairly low impact period of weather with another long
stretch of below normal temperatures. Longer range models indicate
a continued cool pattern through next week and even into the last
week of April.

&&

.AVIATION...19/0035Z.

At 2353Z at KLAX, there was a weak inversion with a base near 3700
feet. The top of the inversion was near 4500 feet with a
temperature of 7 deg C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in the Central Coast sites where MVFR conds
are expected overnight, but the onset time of CIGs may occur +/-
3 hours from TAF times. Otherwise, low confidence in the
remaining TAF sites where stratus CIGs may be periodic or short
lived, or may not occur at all. CIGs will most likely be MVFR
where they occur, but with a 20% chance of IFR CIGs. Timing of
CIGs is low confidence for all of these locations.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. CIGs are
currently VFR, however there is a 30-40% chance of MVFR CIGs
developing overnight, with low confidence in timing if this should
occur. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Low confidence in the 00Z TAF. Conds may bounce between
MVFR to VFR through 08Z. There is a 30% chance that MVFR conds
persist beyond 08Z, and a 20% chance of IFR to MVFR conds between
08Z and 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...18/744 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. There is a 30% chance of localized Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) level northwest wind gusts over the Outer Waters through
this evening. Saturday through Monday morning, there is a 20-30%
chance for SCA level wind gusts around Point Conception and the
Channel Islands in the afternoon and evening hours. Elsewhere,
winds and seas are expected to remain sub advisory through Monday
morning. Then, Monday afternoon through Tuesday night, there is a
60-80% chance of SCA level winds, with a 40-50% chance of
continued SCA winds Wednesday into Wednesday night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Saturday through Monday morning,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
Starting Monday there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in
the afternoon and evening hours, with the best chances Tuesday and
Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels across
most areas. The only exception will be the western half of the
Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-50% of SCA level wind
gusts on Saturday in the afternoon through evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Kittell
AVIATION...Smith
MARINE...Lewis/Smith
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox