Manchester, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

171
FXUS66 KEKA 111207
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
507 AM PDT Sun May 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weak late season storm system will bring gusty
south wind, light to moderate rain showers, and cold air across the
area today through Monday. Moderate conditions will return through
most of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday... A deeper marine layer has
pushed well inland this morning. The McKinleyville profiler
indicates a marine layer depth up to around 4,000 feet MSL. As a
result, the stratus covered entirely Del Norte County as well
significant terrain portion of Humboldt County. Patchy drizzle has
been occurring along the North Coast due to this saturated layer.
Otherwise, stratus are expected to gradually lift and mix out
later this morning and early afternoon as a weak cold front
destabilize the marine layer.

The aforementioned broad upper level trough in the Gulf of Alaska
will continue to dig along the West Coast during the next 24
hours, before moves over the area on Monday. This will result in a
cooling trend through Monday, with the coolest day on Monday as
inland highs cool down into the mid 50`s to mid 60`s.

The leading surface front of a broad trough will approaches from
the northwest and bring cold and moist conditions across the CWA
late this afternoon into Monday. High resolution models shows
light to moderate rain moving onshore along the North Coast
between 1600 to 1800 this afternoon/early evening. Rain showers
are expected to continue to move east and southeast through the
night, before tapper off during the day on Monday. Rainfall total
forecast amounts range from 0.8 to 1.25 inches in Del Norte, with
with locally up to around 2 inches focused over the west- southwest
windward facing terrain. Elsewhere, 0.1 to 0.6 inches in the
lower elevations, with the lowest amounts in southern Mendocino
and Lake, and 0.7 to 1.7 inches at high elevations.

In addition, breezy to windy south-southwest winds are expected
along the coast and interior ridges late this afternoon into
Monday as the low drives southeastward. Gusts of 20 to around 35
mph are forecast at low elevations and 35 to 45 mph at high
elevations.

Snow level are forecast to lower to around 4500-5000 feet tonight
into early Monday. Mountain snow is expected over the Trinity
Alps and Scott Mountain Pass at Hwy 3. Current total snow
accumulations over the Scott Mountain Pass are forecast to be
between 2-3 inches of wet snow from tonight through Monday
evening.

Monday night into Tuesday, clearing skies and lingering cold air
Tuesday morning may allow for areas of frost, especially in
Trinity County. Although, recent rain will likely generate fog
and inhibit too much cooling. Even in a normally cold place like
Hayfork, NBM currently places only a 25% chance of freezing
conditions early Tuesday. Some light showers are possible to
developed during the afternoon due to a lingering low level
moisture and diurnal heating. High pressure will begin to build in
downstream the departing trough on Tuesday. This will enhanced
the onshore flow in the afternoons near shore Tuesday and
Wednesday. Expect warm, calm, and mild weather by mid next week. /ZVS


&&

.AVIATION...As models have consistently forecast, stratus has
returned to the coastal terminals during the overnight. IFR/LIFR
ceilings along with periods of light drizzle are likely (60% chance)
this morning. An approaching surface low and associated cold front
will bring strong southerlies at the coastal terminals, which will
help lift ceilings to MVFR/VFR after sunrise. Still keeping and eye
on stratus advection north into UKI early this morning, with about a
15-20% chance for stratus. So far this has been kept out of the area
and satellite indicates stratus is still quite a distance away.

Lower visibility with rain and lower ceilings and visibilities are
expected Monday afternoon and evening as an occluding cold front
moves onshore. /MH


&&

.MARINE...Winds have turned southerly, or will soon turn southerly
ahead of an approaching weather system. North of Cape Mendocino,
south winds will abruptly increase this afternoon and evening to
produce gale force gusts of 35-40KTS and steep seas. Gales are
expected for a short time this afternoon and evening for the
northern waters, sandwiched between small craft conditions this
afternoon and again later tonight. Winds will ease to strong breezes
later in the evening and tonight. Northerlies return Tuesday with
and small craft conditions possible as wind waves become steep.
Steep seas of 5-8 ft are forecast north of the Cape. /MH


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 PM PDT this
     afternoon for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT
     Monday for PZZ450-470.

     Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 PM PDT this
     afternoon for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ470.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png