Madera, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

017
FXUS66 KHNX 031815
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1115 AM PDT Sat May 3 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A cooldown and stronger low pressure system will bring a
chance of more widespread precipitation and locally gusty winds
for the weekend.

2. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop this afternoon and last into the early evening hours,
although mainly over the mountains.

3. Drying and warming return by the middle of next week with
well above normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Unsettled conditions have already started as the associated
upper low approaches Central California later today. Ensemble
surface analysis is showing the cold front already over Central
California and shifting through the area today. Therefore,
enough support will exist today along with good instability to
maintain a slight chance (10%-20%) of thunderstorms across the
San Joaquin Valley. With higher elevations showing convective
potential in the 30% to almost 50% category, will expect more
scattered thunderstorms across the Sierra foothills and higher
terrain. The unsettled conditions are also affecting
temperatures as many locations have seen a drop of 4 to 8
degrees in the last 24 hours. After seeing Fridays highs reach
into the mid 80s, there is less then a 40% Probability of
Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 75 degrees as the valley
experiences a cool down this weekend. In addition, windy
conditions over the favored spots of Eastern Kern County will
result in wind advisory conditions later today and throughout
the overnight hours. While Monday will show continue to show
unsettled conditions, the remainder of the work week will have
conditions return to a dry and warming pattern.

As the storm exits later in the weekend, temperature begin a
rebound and rise to the mid 80s by Tuesday. The PoE of mid 80s
jumps up to a range of 60%-80% at that time, which increases
confidence to a warm-up next week. As a note, PoE of 90 degrees
sits at 70%-90% by next Friday. With these PoE values that far
out, the potential of reaching 90 degrees is high as we go into
the first full week of May. While Monday still has a 30%-50% PoE
of measurable precipitation over Central California, those
values drop-off to the typical 10%-20% mountain probabilities as
spring snow-melt continues across the Sierra Nevada. By next
Sunday, with high uncertainty, ensemble hint toward another
disturbance entering the region for another round of unsettled
conditions.

&&


.AVIATION...
18Z Update:
Thunderstorm activity possible after 18Z today through 06Z
Sunday with higher probabilities over the mountains. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours in much of the
San Joaquin Valley, except for MVFR due to spotty -SHRA in
eastern portions after 18Z Saturday. Areas of mountain
obscuration IFR as scattered showers with high elevation snow
expected over the Sierra through 18Z Sunday. Strong winds with
G35KTS expected across the eastern portion of Kern County from
21Z today through 15Z on Sunday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ338.

Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ337-339.

&&

$$

Public/Aviation....Molina

weather.gov/hanford