Loleta, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

582
FXUS66 KEKA 181356
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
556 AM PST Sat Jan 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Continued dry through Thursday, with some precipitation
potential toward Friday next week and into the following weekend.
Chilly nights and mornings with areas of frost and patchy fog into
mid-week next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Messages: Frost potential (including the coast) through at least
Wednesday morning next week. Dry weather through Thursday next week.
Fog potential for coast and interior valleys through at least
Wednesday morning next week.

Weather Pattern Overview: Upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific
re-enforces over the West Coast this weekend and into early next
week. Then a trough develops over the western United States by the
late work week next week, providing potential precipitation by
Thursday night and Friday and into the following weekend.

Forecast Confidence and Deviations: Omega block upper level ridge
continues as it strengthens and nudges east, with the ridge axis
approaching the coast slowly. Confidence is high for a dry forecast
through mid-week next week, with essentially all ensembles pointing
toward a ridge-dominated scenario.

Although frost potential exists for coastal areas, freeze potential
is rather weak (generally 5-20% for lows below 32 degrees fo the
next several days through Wednesday morning).

By Friday, a positively tilted upper trough is still forecast to dig
south toward the West Coast, with the trough axis remaining
southeast of the CWA. The eastern part of the ridge erodes, although
temporarily. Wind gusts from the north are forecast to increase
noticeably on Friday on the backside of the trough. We stand a 50-
60% chance of wind gusts to be greater than 30 mph along the coast
on Friday, and chances increasing for Saturday, with a 60-70% chance
of wind gusts greater than 30 mph.

By the time we reach the Friday afternoon to Friday night time frame
next week, we stand a 40-50% chance of receiving greater than 0.05
inches of rain from Eureka to Crescent City, and 20-40% chance
between Eureka and Fort Bragg. Lesser chances in the interior, with
generally a 20-30% chance in these areas. Precipitation chances
increase for Saturday. The likelihood of receiving more than 0.05
inches of rain range from about 20% in Lake County to 20-40%
chance in Mendocino County. For Humboldt, Trinity, and Del Norte
counties, the chances for 0.05 inches or more increase to 30-40%
for 0.05 inches or more, and is the strongest showing of
precipitation chances before decreasing for the following week as
the aforementioned upper trough axis slides farther
east/southeast and the east Pacific ridge nudges back east over
our area.

&&

.AVIATION...Stratus is fairly widespread in many of the interior
valleys and along the Mendocino coast. The Humboldt coast has a
large area of stratus right at the immediate coast. Offshore flow
has currently pushed the stratus out of KACV, but it wouldn`t take
much for it to move back in. These clouds are expected to clear out
late morning and into the afternoon, however confidence is low on
this. The area of stratus off the Humboldt coast is not modeled well
so it may also not be handling the clouds well today. Either way,
stratus is expected to return and expand tonight. The HREF shows it
to be less widespread in Mendocino county than this morning. This
may keep it out of Ukiah. MKK

&&

.MARINE...The stronger winds have pushed farther offshore leaving
just winds of 5 to 10 KT within 30 to 40 NM from shore. Farther away
from the coast and north of the area these winds are stronger. This
is allowing a fresh swell to move into the waters combining with the
shorter period wind waves to bring a wave roughly 6 to 9 feet at 9
seconds. These winds and waves are generally expected to continue
through early Sunday. This afternoon the next long period swell is
expected. Currently this swell is moving past buoy 46006 at around 8
feet at 19 seconds. This is about what is showing on the Global wave
model or slightly lower than predicted. The buoy did briefly spike
up to 13 feet at 20 seconds. So the swell moving in this afternoon
generally looks on track, but may come in slightly larger than
expected. Forerunners this afternoon look to be around 3 feet at 21
seconds building to 7 to 8 feet at 19 seconds on Sunday.

Sunday afternoon the northerly winds pick up again peaking overnight
with winds beyond 10 NM of 20 to 25 KT. Once again winds closer to
shore remain lighter, around 10 kt. Monday winds are expected to
diminish fairly quickly to around 10 to 15 kt. These are expected to
continue to diminish Monday night and look to be around 5 to 10 kt
until they start to pick up again on Wednesday. Wednesday and
Thursday winds are expected to increase but generally look to remain
under 20 kt. Late in the week stronger northerly winds are possible.
The swell is expected to remain around 5 to 7 feet with a period
slowly dropping to around 14 seconds. MKK


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...This afternoon through Sunday night a swell
initially around 21 seconds is expected to bring the potential for
sneaker waves. These long periods will allow the waves to be in
sets with up to 20 or 30 minutes between the larger waves. There
is some wave energy lingering in a 10 second swell that may
mitigate the gaps in the sets of the longer period waves. Still a
moderate threat of sneaker waves is likely. The beach hazard
statement looks to be on track. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM PST this afternoon
     through Monday afternoon for CAZ101-103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png