Lenwood, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

326
FXUS65 KVEF 241537
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
737 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A break between systems is in store today ahead of the
next incoming Pacific Storm which will bring a major snowfall event
to the Southern Sierra Monday through Tuesday night with some
precipitation also spreading across the southern Great Basin before
tapering off by early Wednesday. Cool and dry northwest flow will
develop going into Thanksgiving Day and Friday followed by another
low pressure system potentially developing off the Southern
California Coast next weekend.
&&

.UPDATE...Much quieter conditions across the region this morning.
Elevated winds gusting between 15-25 mph will continue to decrease
across the Mojave Desert today. Meanwhile a few light rain
showers/snow flurries are noted on radar across far eastern
Lincoln County into SW Utah which will slide to the SE and weaken
as it reaches the mountains near the I-15 corridor in southern
Utah - little in the way of impacts are expected within the CWA.

The focus now turns to the system that will begin to impact the
region Monday through Wednesday this week bringing major snowfall
across the Sierra and otherwise mostly beneficial rainfall. Will
be digging into the forecast for that system today.

The current forecast and discussion below are on track and no
additional short range updates are planned this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...205 AM PST Sun Nov 24 2024.
.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight.

Winds will continue decreasing through early this morning across
most of the forecast area although a belt of west-southwest winds
gusting 15-25 mph will be oriented across San Bernardino/southern
Clark and northern Mohave counties until late morning as the tail
end of the exiting trough traverses central Nevada. This may also
produce some light precipitation or sprinkles/flurries mainly over
Lincoln County where snow levels are near 6000 feet. High
temperatures will be about 8-10 degrees lower than Saturday due to
height falls in the wake of the trough.

Light winds can be expected tonight under weak zonal flow aloft
which develops ahead another upper low spinning up off the Pacific
Northwest Coast which will begin directing another potent
atmospheric river toward Central California, setting the stage for a
major snowfall event for the Southern Sierra early this week.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday.

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for elevations above 7,000 feet
in the Eastern Sierra Slopes from 4 AM Monday through 10 AM
Wednesday. A Winter Storm Advisory is in effect for elevations above
7,000 feet in the White and Inyo Mountains from 4 AM Monday through
10 AM Wednesday. There is high confidence in the onset time of this
event, but only low-to-moderate confidence on the ending time of the
event due to outlier solutions that have it lingering. This has the
potential to be a major snowstorm for the Eastern Sierra Slopes with
the Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) showing a 60%
(likely) chance for major impacts including dangerous or impossible
driving conditions and widespread closures and disruptions to
infrastructure. Keep this in mind when making Thanksgiving travel
plans and make sure to keep up to date with a trusted weather source.

While there is not 100% certainty, it is looking likely that
troughing will persist across the region through Wednesday with
ridging building in its wake Thursday and into the weekend. The
exact timing of the pattern shift will undoubtedly impact
temperatures, precipitation, and subsequent snow levels. A lingering
solution would allow for lower elevation snow through the day
Wednesday while a more progressive solution would have snow tapering
off by Wednesday. In terms of precipitation, this would have it
return for the northern half of the CWA generally north of I-15,
keeping the Mojave Desert and Colorado River Valley dry.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty southwest winds will continue
through the overnight and early-morning period, with gust speeds
between 15 and 25 kts. Late this morning, winds will take on a more
westerly component with gusts between 20 and 30 kts through the
afternoon. There is a 10% chance of light northeast winds pushing
into the northern portions of the Las Vegas Valley through the late-
morning and early-afternoon. That said, the west-southwest gusts
superseding these light northeasterlies over the terminal is the
most likely scenario, and will persist until sunset. After sunset,
winds become light and diurnal for the remainder of the TAF period.
FEW-SCT aoa 7 kft with BKN mid-to-high clouds.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and
southeastern California...Gusty southwest winds will continue for
Las Vegas Valley TAF sites through the overnight period into the
early-morning hours between 15 and 25 kts. These winds will gain a
westerly component late-morning and will continue to gust until
sunset. Light northwest winds expected at KBIH through the TAF
period with occasional speeds above 10 kts. Gusty west winds between
25 and 35 kts for KDAG until gusts subside after sunset. Breezy
south-southwest winds along the Colorado River Valley with speeds
between 8 and 12 kts at KEED and KIFP. Light and diurnal winds
expected areawide after sunset through the remainder of the TAF
period. FEW-SCT aoa 7 kft with BKN mid-to-high clouds.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolcott
SHORT TERM...Adair
LONG TERM...Sarment
AVIATION...Soulat

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