Lemon Cove, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

343
FXUS66 KHNX 061800
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1100 AM PDT Tue May 6 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
this afternoon and last into the early evening hours, although
mainly over the mountains from Fresno to Kern.

2. Drying and warming return by the middle of next week with well
above normal temperatures. Widespread Max temperatures reaching
90 degrees expected by Friday.

3. Another disturbance expected to impact Central California
early next week as unsettled weather will exist between Sunday
and next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
While the weekend disturbance continues to track further east,
a piece of energy wrapping around the upper low will swing
through the Sierra Nevada today for a continuation of showery
activity. Therefore, we are not done with mountain precipitation
as one more round of unsettled conditions affects the Central
California Interior. Afterward, ridge pattern will dominate the
region as Lower elevation temperatures soar toward the upper 90s
this weekend. The Kern Desert has a chance of reaching the 100
degree mark on Saturday ahead of a yet another disturbance
expected toward next Monday.

Probability of Measurable Precipitation and Thunder has a
positive signal over the Tulare and Kern County Mountains today
as a short-wave cuts across that area. Currently, while
probability of measurable precipitation sits at 15%-25%,
Probability of Thunder for the same time periods is at 5%-10%.
With this, while the energy for good convection is becoming more
limited, a brief showers still has a chance of developing
today. After today, the chances of measurable precipitation
drops to near zero.

A warming trend this week with lead toward max temperatures
reaching the 90s between Thursday and Saturday. With each
passing day, PoE of reaching 90 degrees has been going up with a
significant just to 50%-80% by Thursday. Confidence is high in
having the max temperatures reach into the 90 degrees range by
Friday (and into Saturday) as probability of Exceedance (PoE) of
90 degree or above range from 90%-100% for both days (FRI/SAT).
With ensemble upper-air analysis showing a signal toward a
strong ridge pattern, will have no problem seeing mid to upper
90s by Saturday. The Kern County Desert even has a 30%-40%
chance of reaching 100 degrees on Saturday. Furthermore, heat-
risk on Saturday will reach moderate levels which will impact
heat-sensitive individuals. During the same time, Snow-melt from
warm temperatures will allow for cloud development during the
ridge pattern as PoE of measurable precipitation remains well
below 10% each day.

By next Sunday/Monday, with high uncertainty, ensemble hint
toward another disturbance entering the region for another round
of unsettled conditions. At the present moment, PoE of
measurable precipitation sits a 15%-25% across the Sierra Nevada
with the higher probabilities closer to Yosemite. In addition,
PoE of reaching 90 degrees on Sunday drops to 40%-60% as a cool-
down occurs from the next disturbance. Even-more, by Monday, PoE
of reaching 90 (or 85) degrees falls below 40% as max
temperatures return to near seasonal normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update:
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours in much of the
San Joaquin Valley. Localized areas of MVFR/IFR conditions are
possible between 18Z Tuesday and 04Z Wednesday due to cumulus
cloud build ups along the Sierra Nevada mountains, though these
clouds only have a 5%-10% chance of developing into
thunderstorms.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Public/Aviation....Molina

weather.gov/hanford