Laytonville, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

146
FXUS66 KEKA 172130
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
130 PM PST Tue Dec 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry conditions and warming temperatures are
expected this week. Another chance for light rain is expected on
Wednesday followed by warmer temperatures on Thursday. A more
active pattern with stronger frontal systems is probable through
the weekend and likely through much of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A warm front passed this morning, leaving a dry day
for Northwest California with ridging aloft. Some filtered
sunshine developed today, but otherwise overcast skies will
persist into tonight.

A weakening cold front will approach the Humboldt and Del Norte
coasts tonight bringing with it some light rain to the those
counties and possibly Trinity County on Wednesday. Total rainfall
amounts are expected to be less than a half inch in Del Norte
County to as little as only a trace into southern Trinity and
southern Humboldt counties.

Ridging will return on Thursday as the cold front weakens and
retreats back north as a warm front. Temperatures will warm quite a
bit across the interior with near record high temperatures around 70
degrees possible in Ukiah. However, the warmth and dry conditions
will quickly end as early as Friday as a deep trough develops
over the eastern Pacific and onshore flow returns. The first
chance will be a quick passing upper shortwave which could bring
rain and some gusty conditions primarily to the Humboldt and Del
Norte areas followed by a return to more persistent stormy
conditions over the weekend into early next week across the entire
region.

The Weather Prediction Center has placed much of Northwest
California in a marginal risk of extreme rainfall in their day 5,
Saturday outlook while the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is
favoring above normal precipitations for Northwest California and
the Pacific Northwest in their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.
Additionally, the CPC is highlighting our region for heavy
precipitation from December 24th through the 27th with flooding
possible. All of this is to say the pattern is definitely
indicating a trend toward impactful storm systems beginning this
coming weekend, lasting well into the holiday week. More details
about these storms will be coming as we get closer over the next
several days.

&&

.AVIATION...The morning started off with plenty of clouds:  VFR and brief
periods of MVFR clouds...with a few residual showers in the far
north areas. There was abundant fog over inland valleys. UKI
reported IFR conditions til around noonday. A rather tight pressure
gradient has caused southerly gusty winds over Del Norte and some
breeziness over a few Humboldt locations. Through the TAF period, an
approaching frontal boundary (with token, weak upper level support)
will move across the North Coast Wednesday morning. This system will
be accompanied by mostly light precipitation and MVFR conditions...
not too impactful. However, prefrontal wind conditions above the
ground will promote LLWS through Wednesday morning at the coast.
/TA


&&

.MARINE...A weak front moving into the Oregon Coast is maintaining
at least moderate southerly winds in the northern waters with
gusts up to 30 kts and short period waves over 8 feet.
Southerlies are notably calmer in the southern waters with speeds
mostly below 12 kts. That said, a mid period westerly swell has
built in, keeping seas above 10 feet in the south despite calmer
winds.

Southerly winds will calm across all the waters during the day
Wednesday with westerly swells decaying below 10 feet. Calmer
conditions will prevail at least briefly through Thursday. Another
stronger storm system will begin to influence the waters of Friday
with a 40 to 60% chance of gale force southerly winds and associated
steep seas by Friday afternoon. There is even higher confidence (80%
chance) of gale force winds across the waters by Saturday. This
storm will also most likely generate a steep westerly swell
currently modeled between 15 and 20 feet by the weekend. /JHW


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ450-
     455-470-475.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png